Philadelphia Phillies: NL East rivals' warts for 2020

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For Phillies fans who believe the team needs a center fielder and a third baseman, have you given up on or forgotten Kingery? Photo by David Maxwell/Getty Images. /

If you only view the Phillies divisional foes strength-wise and the Fightins’ shortcomings, your conclusion will be a fourth-place finish and maybe a losing record, and you already have a scapegoat: general manager Matt Klentak.

Greener pastures:

Some Philadelphia Phillies fans have already conceded the upcoming season to their main rivals in the National League East. And unless Klentak acquires a mid-rotation arm, two bullpen pieces for the back end, a third sacker and a center fielder, those locals are unlikely to change their minds. Three flawless competitors?

IN OTHER WORDS: “The microscopes that magnified the tears, studied warts and all. Still life flows on.” – George Harrison

For ’20, again, some fans have already decided the red pinstripes’ fate, but others believe they might tie for third place with the club who doesn’t have a 2019 pennant to fly at home. But although all teams have warts, being unaware of divisional rivals’ weaknesses might comfort the pessimists among us.

Unfortunately, many Philadelphians don’t hear or read similar remarks from those other cities. For some here, they annually project failure with low expectations to ward off potential disappointment. Ergo, does anticipating also-ran status lower emotional investment and avoid risking heartache?

While organizations explore possibilities, some are dead ends of due diligence. For instance, a franchise with a hole at the hot corner doesn’t pass on a comparably priced free agent but trade prospects to achieve the same monetary outlay. No, clubs inquire and find that alternative less appealing.

Rumors will continue to float in January, but who benefits from them? Well, agents and GMs can increase contract offers, interest in their clientele and/or bidders for a player’s services. But some supporters worry a divisional foe will pick up a star and eliminate their hometown nine before spring training.

Unless an organization has just one glaring need, their front office won’t overpay for that one piece like the New York Yankees this offseason. Otherwise, Klentak and his contemporaries will propose a fair value or slightly more, but anticipating a competitor overpaying in length and/or dollars isn’t a sustainable strategy.

To some fans here, the Washington Nationals with their World Series title or the Atlanta Braves with their NL East crown already have the division. Plus one local even thinks the Fightins will battle the Miami Marlins for fourth place, and he might believe the good guys’ chances are fifty-fifty.

Donaldson will affect the Braves and/or Nationals if he signs elsewhere. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

Braves and Nationals:

If the Phillies don’t fix every weakness –some believe– they did nothing, while even the Yankees still have holes. But the Braves have yet to sign a third baseman and an outfielder, plus they committed $14 million to Mark Melancon who’ll be a setup man sooner rather than later. Yes, Melancon was July’s desperation move.

And what happened to their future third sacker Austin Riley? Well, the league had caught up to him after a sizzling May, and he didn’t adjust. And if Josh Donaldson takes a four-campaign pact elsewhere, will they platoon Riley at the hot corner? Ergo, losing Donaldson’s bat will affect their offense.

Which Mike Foltynewicz will toe the rubber in 2020? Will it be 2018’s rotation standout or 2019’s struggling hurler who returned from Triple-A only to finish the 162 on a low note? And even though Atlanta has potential starters, they develop like other youngsters and make an impact in or after the third year.

The Nationals were the hot team at the right time and overcame every obstacle in their path. However, they lost Rendon to free agency. And they, probably, offered Donaldson a four-summer pact with deferred money. Additionally, they need a first or second baseman.

They have improved their pen by adding Will Harris, and they may also re-up Hudson. However, he wants two seasons, and his spotty track record is a risk they are leery of. But other franchises are in no hurry for him either.

Currently, the Nats are at $183.94 million AAV (average annual value), but $25 million AAV for Donaldson will put them over the $208 million CBT (competitive-balance threshold). And they don’t want to pay the 50 percent tax again for exceeding the CBT for a fourth consecutive 162.

While many fans view Syndergaard as a solid rotation piece, his distrust of Ramos’ game calling is a shortcoming for the Mets. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. /

Mets and Phillies:

While some fans have doubts about the Phillies ability to have more victories than the New York Mets, they are at $207.523 million AAV, which is $0.477 million under the Luxury Tax limit. Plus they need a third sacker and a center fielder, and they have reportedly lost money over the last two campaigns.

Basically, the Metropolitans might proceed with the roster they have, and it includes a first baseman in left field. Plus catcher Wilson Ramos, a solid hitter, is a defensive liability, and Noah Syndergaard made multiple requests for another receiver due to his game calling. Meanwhile, their biggest concern is the bullpen.

In ’19, New York (NL) had accepted Robinson Cano, then 36, and his remaining $120 million ($24 million AAV) to acquire Edwin Diaz; but the former closer for the Seattle Mariners and setup man Jeurys Familia were major disappointments. An eyesore for sure!

When some fans consider the red pinstripes’ needs, they tick off a third sacker and a center fielder. Well, what position would Scott Kingery play? Plus Adam Haseley had advanced 1-2 years early due to injuries and a suspension but hit .266 while showing a decent glove in every outfield spot.

Like the Braves and Nationals, the Phils need a fifth starter, and these organizations will tab the winner of their March competition. But each team has a certain moundsman in mind prior to camp. Basically, some faithful supporters fret over filling this spot with a four-slot arm.

The Fightins had placed eight relievers on the IL (injured list) for big chunks of last summer, but some paying customers have either written them off or expected better results than their employer. Rule of thumb: An effective reliever has an acceptable performance rate of 75-80 percent; a stud closer has 90 percent.

Suarez could receive a rotation opportunity with the Phillies in March. Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images. /

Despite the doubts:

While the Phillies faithful bemoan the five-man staff, their NL East foes also have four counted-on starters for ’20. And they’ll have a question mark every fifth day as well, plus those fans will fault their GM like the locals with Klentak, who could tab southpaw Ranger Suarez.

At the bullpen’s back end, Neris and Dominguez will pitch the critical innings; but Morgan, Arano, Alvarez, Velasquez, Pivetta and Stock could fill the remaining seats. No, it’s not a lights-out relief corps, but –if they’re healthy– it’s not a disaster either. Plus Atlanta, Washington and New York (NL) have their own pen question marks.

While the Nats will miss Rendon, the Braves’ offense will be weaker without Donaldson, and the Mets hitters are streaky. Locally, Didi Gregorius in the five hole will contribute to crooked numbers on the scoreboard and excitement on the base paths. Plus the left-right lineup balance will be a benefit with the new three-batter rule.

Financially, the Metropolitans and Phils must move salary to ink a free agent or trade nearly equal AAV dollars to improve their active 25. But the Nationals and Braves are in limbo until Donaldson signs for $25 million AAV, so Washington has AAV payroll space otherwise.

Like ’19, it will be a four-team race for the division crown, and organizations with healthy stars will have the advantage, while the injury-plagued clubs will play for an NL Wild Card berth. But what will the main difference on Opening Day be between 2020 and 2019? The new Roaring Twenties!

After a dreadful second half, Hoskins bouncing back will solidify the first five or six holes in the lineup. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

More from Call to the Pen

This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies hitting:

Kingery, 25.5: 126 Gms., 500 PA, a .258 Avg., a .315 OBP, a .474 SLG, a .216 ISO, a .337 BABIP, 19 HR, 55 RBI, a .788 OPS and a 2.7 fWAR.
Haseley, 23.5: 67 Gms., 242 PA, a .266 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .396 SLG, a .131 ISO, a .344 BABIP, 5 HR, 26 RBI, a .720 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
*Gregorius, 29.5: 82 Gms., 344 PA, a .238 Avg., a .276 OBP, a .441 SLG, a .204 ISO, a .237 BABIP, 16 HR, 61 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
* Injury-riddled season.

Mets hitting:

Cano, 37: 107 Gms., 423 PA, a .256 Avg., a .307 OBP, a .428 SLG, a .172 ISO, a .280 BABIP, 13 HR, 39 RBI, a .736 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.

Braves hitting:

Riley, 22.5: 80 Gms., 297 PA, a .226 Avg., a .279 OBP, a .471 SLG, a .245 ISO, a .293 BABIP, 18 HR, 49 RBI, a .750 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.

Free-agent hitting:

Donaldson, 34: 155 Gms., 659 PA, a .259 Avg., a .379 OBP, a .521 SLG, a .262 ISO, a .292 BABIP, 37 HR, 94 RBI, a .900 OPS and a 4.9 fWAR.

Free-agent pitching:

Hudson, 32.5:
Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.

Braves pitching:

Foltynewicz, 28: 21 Gms., 117 Inn., 8-6, a 4.54 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 4.73 xFIP, a 4.71 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
Melancon, 34.5: 66 Gms., 67 1/3 Inn., a 3.61 ERA, 12 Saves, 5 Holds, a 2.86 FIP, a 3.06 xFIP, a 3.17 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.

Mets pitching:

Diaz, 25.5: 66 Gms., 58 Inn., a 5.59 ERA, 26 Saves, 7 BS, a 4.51 FIP, a 3.07 xFIP, a 2.63 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
Familia, 30: 66 Gms., 60 Inn., a 5.70 ERA, 14 Holds, a 4.88 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 5.05 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.73 WHIP.
Syndergaard, 27: 32 Gms., 197 2/3 Inn., 10-8, a 4.28 ERA, a 3.60 FIP, a 3.83 xFIP, a 4.02 SIERA, a 4.4 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.

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