MLB: The most valuable right fielders of 2019

In a position loaded with talent the two National League stars stand out amongst MLB right fielders.

In MLB, we’re pretty much obsessed with the concept of value. We apply a plethora of often exotic statistical approaches to measure it: batting average, slugging, home runs, WAR, OPS+, Defensive Runs Saved, Weighted Runs Created…the list  goes on.

The one factor we generally overlook in all these assessments is the most meaningfully value-oriented of all of them: salary. What, precisely, was the player paid – relative to all other players tasked with doing what he was doing – and how much of that pay did he “earn?”

The rating system that follows corrects that oversight. Based on 2019 performance, it measures which players were the most “valuable” as judged by their on-field production relative to their salary. And let it be noted here that we are limiting our focus to on-field value only. Some players, mega stars, are paid based largely on factors unrelated to on-field performance, their drawing power at the gate, their celebrity, their endorsement/promotional potential being among them. Those factors, while acknowledged as real, are not part of this discussion.

Since different positions require different skills, the standard for determining production will vary depending on position…although for position players there will always be an offensive component.

Today, we’re looking at right field, the most talent-rich position in MLB. That spot will be verified by the list of the 10 best players, where on-field values begin at more than $7.5 million and rise to nearly $20 million for the most valuable right fielder. That’s the highest dollar-value of any player in 2019.

A total of 32 players qualified for consideration as right fielders based on having played more innings at that position than any other, and a minimum of 400.

Right field is primarily a power position, but with a distinct defensive caveat. Specifically, a strong throwing arm is a pre-requisite for a good right fielder. Our formula contains three elements: Seventy percent is committed to WAR, 20 percent to innings played, and a final 10 percent to assists.

Here are the pertinent positional averages for those elements. The average positional salary is $6.096 million. Right fielders averaged 2.278 WAR, 980.313 innings on the field, and 5.594 assists.

Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres, $7.529 million value; $582,000 salary

The Padres traded Renfroe to the Rays in December for Tommy Pham, who ranked as the fourth best MLB left fielder. In case you’re wondering, Pham delivered about $2 million more in 2019 performance than Renfroe, so feel free to wonder what it was that prompted the Rays to value Renfroe more dearly than Pham.

Whatever it was didn’t have much to do with Renfroe’s offensive production. In 140 appearances he batted just .216, although the value of that was enhanced by 33 home runs. Despite the lackluster average, his 102 OPS+ does identify him as an average threat at the plate, and he managed to produce a 2.6 WAR that was 12th best at the position, worth $4.87 million.

Renfroe’s hidden asset was his arm. He piled up a position-best 13 assists as a right fielder, good for $1.418 million. His 998 innings on the field was average, amounting to $1.241 million in value. Those defensive attributes nudged him ahead of both Trey Mancini and Nicholas Castellanos into the top 10.

Renfroe is a first-year arbitration case, and there have been published projections that he could win as much as $3.5 million. Given the presence of Austin Meadows (see below) in Tampa’s right field, Renfroe is expected to shift to Pham’s vacated spot in left for 2020.

9. Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays, $8.297 million value; $557,000 salary

By his low-cost contributions, Meadows gave the Rays the payroll flexibility a low-revenue MLB team needs to be successful. Acquired in mid-season last year from Pittsburgh, Meadows blossomed in his first season as a full-timer. He combined 33 home runs with a .291 average for a .922 OPS and 143 OPS+ that got him an All Star Game invite.

His 3.8 WAR was good for $7.118 million in value, eighth best at the position. His defensive credentials weren’t at that level, in part because the Rays sentenced Meadows to 44 games as a designated hitter. That reduced his on-field innings to just 773, only the position’s 24th best. It equated to $961,000 value for playing time.

It also reduced his assist opportunities. Meadows only made two of them, and that translated to just $218,000 in value, the 27th best total.

Since Meadows still has two seasons of pre-arbitration eligibility remaining, he figures to be a valuable asset for the Rays through at least 2021, and probably for a few seasons after that. Tampa’s winter plans for Meadows are adopting the tried and true philosophy of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.’ They continue to project him as primarily a right fielder with occasional respites as a DH.

8. Michael Conforto, New York Mets, $9.020 million value; $4.025 million salary

Arriving from Oregon State in 2015, Conforto has mixed his obvious slugging ability with some complementary offensive skills. In 2019 he batted .257 with 63 extra base hits, 33 of them home runs, and 84 bases on balls.

His 128 OPS+ demonstrates that Conforto’s offensive game has matured. He generated a 3.5 WAR in 2019, 9th best at the position and good for $6.556 million in on-field value.

Runners mistakenly assumed they could take a base on Conforto, allowing him to compile eight outfield assists. That ranked seventh at the position and valued out at $872,000. Conforto’s 1,280 innings of work, fifth best, added a final $1.592 million in value.

Conforto was awarded $4.025 million in his first year of arbitration last winter. He is projected to double that when his arbitration case is heard this winter, but that will only emulate his actual on-field value.

The Mets acquired Jake Marisnick last month in exchange for two minor leaguers, but Marisnick is likely to serve only as Conforto’s backup and insurance policy. As long as he’s pushing or exceeding 30 home runs, and as long as he’s doing so for less than $10 million, Conforto will have a spot in right field.

7. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins, $9.092 million value; $6 million salary

Kepler basically divided his outfield time moving from right to center when Byron Buxton was injured. He was, however, a corner outfielder for more than half the season.

The 2019 MLB season was Kepler’s best offensively. His.252 batting average, 36 home runs and .855 OPS were all personal bests. They translated to a 4.0 WAR, tying for sixth best at the position and valued at $7.493 million.

Kepler’s defensive numbers moderated his offensive value. He played 1,111 innings, 15th best and measuring out to $1.382 million in value.  As a right fielder, he only delivered two assists, tying for 27th best and worth a final $218,000 that settled him in eighth place overall.

The Twins have committed to Kepler. Prior to the 2019 season, they signed him to a deal that will pay him amounts up to $10 million through 2024. Assuming his production holds – and with the possibility that it increases – that will be a value in a few seasons. Judging from his 2019 numbers, Twins management is already ahead of the game.

Uncertain over Buxton’s 2020 status – he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in September – the Twins depth chart presently plugs Kepler in as a center fielder for 2020. That’s probably not an ideal situation, but if Buxton does return it would not be difficult to move Kepler back to right.

5. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies, $10.924 million value; $11.538 million salary

What do you suppose would have been the reaction of Phillies fans if you told them, following Harper’s signing of a contract that will basically pay him $27 million through 2031, that they had just obtained MLB’s fifth best right fielder?

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

The big financial hit begins this season, the first of nine consecutive seasons when he’ll make $27.5 million. For the final three seasons, it will tail off to $23.5 million. For the low, low introductory price of $11.5 million in 2019, the Phils got a .260 average but 35 home runs, 114 RBIs and an .882 OPS.

His 4.2 WAR, the position’s fifth best, amounted to $7.867 million in on-field value.

Give Harper credit: He worked hard. His 1,318 innings, all of them in right field, trailed only Merrifield for workload and rendered another $1.639 million in value. He also demonstrated his ability to throw. Runners who tried to take an extra base on Harper were gunned down 13 times, ranking him No. 1 in assists amongst MLB right fielders with a value of $1.418 million.

In short, Harper in 2019 proved that he was not just an offensive force. What he needs to affirm in order to move up the positional list in 2020 is that he can generate the offensive firepower that’s been expected of him.

4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, $11.842 million value; $684,000 salary

Judge is such a large, likable, and imposing Yankee who delivers such memorably imposing shots with such ease that it might be difficult to imagine him not generating exceptional value.

His 143 OPS+ confirms his credentials as an offensive force. Most of Judge’s normal counting stats – his 27 home runs and 55 RBIs – were byproducts of the injuries that held him down to 447 plate appearances in just 102 games. It’s the second season of three that Judge has been sidelined for as much as one-third of the full season.

His 5.4 WAR added up to $10.115 million in value, and the seven assists he accumulated – ninth best among all MLB right fielders – added another $763,000.

His injuries limited Judge to 775 innings, only the 23rd best, and worth just $964,000.

Judge enters the arbitration process this winter, when the cost to the Yankees of having him is guaranteed to go up – possibly dramatically. But even at the $5.9 million he is projected to be awarded, he’ll remain an exceptional value for the Yankees. Assuming his health, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the Yankees offer Judge a longer and even more rewarding contract. The interesting decision, then, would be Judge’s; should he take it and tie himself up for multiple seasons?

3. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox, $15.411 million value; $20 million salary

The 2018 American League Most Valuable Player had a nice season, but it was largely overshadowed by his team’s collapse to near-.500 status. It wasn’t Betts’ fault; he batted .296, delivered a .524 slugging percentage and a 135 OPS+.

Betts did finish eighth in the league’s MVP voting, his 6.8 WAR representing the position’s third best. It translated to $12.737 million in on-field value.

He did it while playing 1,273 innings, sixth best and worth $1.583 million. The 10 assists Betts recorded tied for fourth best at the position, amounting to a final $1.09 million in on-field value.

The bottom line confirms Betts’ status as a legitimate star, his actual value trailing only the National League’ two great outfielders.

Betts is a third-year arbitration eligible who is projected to be awarded upwards of $27 million this winter. That’s the number driving discussion in Boston about whether to trade their star outfielder.

Even if he gets the $27 million, Betts will still only be the third highest paid player on the Red Sox roster, behind pitchers Chris Sale and David Price. Here’s some non-news: neither one of those pitchers generated anything approaching Betts’ value…yet that very fact could make their contracts unmoveable and force Boston’s hand on Betts.

2. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers, $15.422 million value; $9.75 million salary

The 32 games Yelich missed, almost all of them at season’s end, probably didn’t cost him a second consecutive Most Valuable Player Award since Bellinger already had slightly superior numbers at the time of Yelich’s injury.

It did, however, have a large amount to do with the $5 million bottom-line gap in their actual on-field values.

Yelich did win the batting title at .329, and with a .329/.429/.671 slash line he also won the SABRmetric triple crown. Those missed games showed up in his counting stats, although 44 home runs hardly seems like an abbreviated season.

His 7.1 WAR was good by all measures except two. It was a half point below his 7.6 WAR of 2018, and it trailed Bellinger by close to two. In terms of dollar contribution, it translated to $13.299 million.

Playing time was obviously a casualty of the injury. He did log 1,093 innings, the position’s 16th best and earning another $1.359 million. The seven assists Yelich registered equaled the position’s ninth best total and amounted to a final $763,000.

Yelich is under contract to the Brewers for three more seasons at amounts ranging from $12.5 million to $15 million. Given the consistency of his performance to date, the Brewers are probably happier with that than Yelich’s agent is.

1.       Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers, $19.568 million value; $605,000 salary

Calling Bellinger a right fielder is basically an accurate description, although he did start nearly 50 games at other positions. None of that movement hurt his offense.

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What ultimately became a winning MVP case was built on 84 extra base hits, 47 of them home runs, accounting for 115 RBIs and accompanied by 95 walks. He had a .629 slugging average, an eye-catching 1.035 OPS and a 169 OPS+.

When the WAR calculations came in, they pegged Bellinger’s season worth 9.0, and that alone amounted to $16.858 million in on-field value.

Superb hitters sometimes get overlooked for the defensive aspects of their game, but Bellinger’s 2019 performance ought not to be overlooked. He played 1,302 innings, the fourth best total at the position, worth $1.619 million. Over that period, he accumulated 10 right field assists, equaling Betts as the fourth best and valued at $1.09 million.

Bellinger is arbitration-eligible in 2020, and given his MVP award that means either a negotiated deal or a major salary boost. Projections put that award at upwards of $11 million. Even that would be a major bargain given the production Bellinger generated last season.

Here’s the bottom line: Bellinger was not only the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019, but at $19.568 million in on-field value he was literally the most valuable player in MLB.