Chicago Cubs: What would a Kris Bryant trade look like?
Kris Bryant has been a popular target in the rumor mill for teams looking to upgrade at third base. What would the Chicago Cubs actually trade him for?
The Washington Nationals made some moves over the past few days, signing veteran infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro to deals. Ken Rosenthal then reported that talks between the Nationals and Chicago Cubs on Kris Bryant have gone “nowhere”.
From yesterday. Did not include possibility of trade for #Cubs’ Bryant. To this point, per sources, those talks have gone nowhere. https://t.co/Cd5uBTm9bJ
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 4, 2020
It has been a quiet offseason on the north side of Chicago but a Kris Bryant trade has been what has been talked about most. After a disappointing campaign that saw the Cubs miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014, Theo Epstein and company moved on from manager Joe Maddon and vowed that they would take a hard look at the team. Trading the superstar and the pick that kicked off a World Series run would be one of the boldest trades of Theo’s career, but how likely is it?
Complicating matters is Bryant’s pending service manipulation grievance hearing. As of now, Bryant has two years of team control left. If the arbiters sided with Bryant, he would only have one year of control. No trade is going to happen until that is resolved but the Cubs seem to be laying the groundwork for when it concludes.
The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves have been two of the most connected teams to Bryant. The Cubs have been insistent on young CF Victor Robles being included but have so far been rebuffed by the Nats. Would that be fair value? What would the Braves offer? Lets find out.
As is the case with every potential trade, we have to establish Kris Bryant’s value. Lets assume Bryant loses his grievance hearing and has two years of team control remaining. MLBTR projects Bryant to make $18.5M this season. Assuming he performs as expected in the 2020 season he would be in line for a hefty raise. We will approximate his final year of control at $25M. So the total financial outlay for Bryant is approximately $44M making him an affordable superstar.
On the field, Bryant has totaled 27.8 fWAR in his career with a peak performance of 7.9 fWAR in 2016. His “worst” season ever was 2018 when he was bothered by a shoulder ailment and still put up 2.3 wins. He looked more like superstar Kris Bryant this past season, contributing 4.8 wins and playing 3B and in the OF. Projecting Bryant at 5.5 wins per year for the next two seasons seems like a fair middle ground based on what he’s done in his career.
Assuming an $8M/WAR valuation, Bryant on field contributions will rack up $88M in total value to an acquiring team. Taking out his expected salary, brings us to a surplus value of $44M. That number obviously goes in different directions depending on your evaluation of Bryant but it gives us a place to start. FanGraphs has done research on prospect valuation and found that position player prospects with a 55 FV grade are worth $46M. Victor Robles projects as a 65 FV moving forward and just turned in a 2.5 WAR season as a 22-year-old. The Cubs can continue to insist on Robles but that would simply be too rich for Bryant since he doesn’t have the same flame out risk as a prospect in the minors. If Robles was a prospect in A or AA ball, there might be more traction there.
The Nationals are looking to replace cornerstone Anthony Rendon so their interest in Bryant will likely persist but we need new parameters of a trade. Carter Kieboom is the next logical starting point for the Chicago Cubs to target in trade talks but his 60 FV ($55M value) may be too rich for Bryant. The Nationals always need bullpen help so maybe we can expand the trade to get even value.
Nationals Get
- 3B Kris Bryant – $44M Surplus Value
- RHP Adbert Azolay – 45FV -$8M FV
- RHP Rowan Wick – $3M FV
Cubs Get
- INF Carter Kieboom – $55M FV
In this scenario, the Nationals get a superstar in Bryant, an interesting prospect who had some success in 2019 and could be used in a variety of roles, and the live armed Rowan Wick who pitched solidly out of the Cubs bullpen down the stretch. The Cubs would receive Bryant’s replacement who would immediately plug in at third and come with six years of cheap team control. Maybe this deal doesn’t interest either side, the Nationals don’t have much prospect depth outside of Kieboom so let’s get creative.
Nationals Get
- 3B Kris Bryant – $44M Surplus Value
Cubs Get
- OF Adam Eaton – $20M Salary, 2 years of control – Surplus Value In the Eye of the Beholder
- RHP Mason Denaburg – 45FV – $8M FV
- RHP Jackson Rutledge – 45FV -$8M FV
- RHP Will Crowe – 45FV -$8M FV
Adam Eaton is the wild card here. He has put up 4 and 6 win seasons but injuries kept him down his first two seasons in DC. He put up 2.3 WAR in 151 games this season and comes with 1 guaranteed season and then a club option for 2021. Eaton would plug in at CF and would give the Cubs production out of the leadoff spot that has been a bit of a black hole the past few seasons.
The Chicago Cubs under Epstein have not been good at developing pitching prospects, conversely, Mike Rizzo has been excellent at trading them away. Rizzo has jettisoned Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and countless others. This deal would send 3 of the Nats top pitching prospects with Will Crowe being just about Major League ready. The Cubs aren’t getting a slam dunk prospect so they may be hesitant about this deal, but if they are high on these three guys could offer some framework for a deal. If Bryant were to win his grievance, the math may line up closer to the second deal.
The Braves though would also have interested in preventing an elite 3B from going to DC and have the need for one as well. What might they offer?
Atlanta has the need at third and the prospect capital to make this deal happen. If they were to acquire Kris Bryant, they would become stronger favorites in the NL East and possibly the entire National League. Bryant and the player previously blocked by Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley, could arrange some sort of tandem where they switch off between LF and 3B to further develop Riley’s skills at the hot corner.
With all the prospects the Braves have, a deal could take shape in multiple ways.
Braves Get
- 3B Kris Bryant – $44M Surplus Value
Cubs Get
- CF Drew Waters – 55 FV – $46M FV OR Austin Riley – 55 FV – $46M FV
Both of these deals lines up almost perfectly in terms of value going back and forth. The Chicago Cubs get a potential stud CF who is already in AAA as a 20-year-old. Waters torched AA to the tune of a 144 wRC+ and provides a strong arm, speed, and range to patrol CF. The combination of Almora and Heyward would suffice in CF while Waters gets more seasoning. Come September though, it could be time to turn the reigns over to Waters.
The second iteration of this deal nets the Cubs heralded prospect Austin Riley who lit the MLB up before he was figured out by pitching. Riley is only 22 and performed at every level of the minors. This deal would be a more realistic 1 for 1 than for the Nats Kieboom and would give the Cubs a natural 3B/OF replacement.
The Braves get their replacement for Josh Donaldson and add Bryant to a lineup with Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and other studs. If the Cubs are interested in multiple pieces instead of a 1 for 1, they could pursue something like this.
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Braves Get
- 3B Kris Bryant – $44M Surplus Value
Cubs Get
- RHP Ian Anderson – 55 FV – $34M FV OR RHP Bryse Wilson – 55FV – $34M
- LHP Kyle Muller – 45+ FV – $6M FV
- C William Contreras – 50 FV – $28M FV
- SS/3B Johan Camargo – 3 Years of Control
This last deal includes an MLB ready pitcher in Bryce Wilson or near ready in Ian Anderson and would address the Chicago Cubs need for pitching.
Kyle Muller is a left-handed pitching prospect with upside who could be in the rotation next year. Johan Camargo would serve as stop-gap until the Cubs can find a new 3B. Camargo turned in a 3.3 win season in 2018 but scuffled heavily in 2019. William is the brother of current Cubs catcher Willson Contreras. While his inclusion tips the value balance significantly in the Cubs favor, the Braves could be willing to part with him after a down 2019 season and other catchers ready to pass over the younger Contreras. This deal would replenish the talent pipeline for the Cubs and give them a replacement with upside in Camargo.
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Will Kris Bryant be traded? The Chicago Cubs seem interested in trading him but I would always bet against a superstar being traded since the price of the acquisition is prohibitive for one team. If it does happen these two teams would be odds on favorite to land him. Bryant is a difference maker and those don’t come cheap. Once his hearing is resolved, we’ll find out how motivated the Cubs are to move him and teams are to acquire him.