San Diego Padres: Predicting the Opening Day rotation
The San Diego Padres window of contention starts in 2020, so what will the starting rotation look like come Opening Day?
The San Diego Padres are going to be a team to watch in 2020, as players like Tommy Pham, Drew Pomeranz, and Trent Grisham will be in the brown and gold. Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer will look to rebound after sluggish 2019 seasons. But today let’s look at what the rotation should look like on Opening Day when the Padres host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park.
Honorable Mentions: MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino
Pitching prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino are going to be at the top of the rotation hopefully by season’s end, but for this exercise, they are not in the rotation because I do not believe they will make the team out of camp in 2020.
player. 127. . . . Joey Lucchesi. 5
With Eric Lauer traded earlier in the offseason to the Milwaukee Brewers in return for Grisham and another starter, Joey Lucchesi should slot into the five spot in the rotation.
He has definitely shown the ability to eat some innings at worst for the San Diego Padres, and his best pitch –the churve–is something unique that can be used to San Diego’s advantage.
In 2019, he won 10 games and lost 10 games while pitching to a 4.18 ERA in 30 starts.
While Lucchesi might not have the fifth spot totally locked down, the rotation is right-handed heavy so Jayce Tingler will likely want to have a lefty like Lucchesi in the rotation.
4. player. 127. . . . Zach Davies
In the Eric Lauer trade, people remember the San Diego Padres getting back Trent Grisham but they also brought back a very durable starter by the name of Zach Davies.
Davies has been better than Lauer and has proven to be more consistent on the mound, which is something the Padres need when they have a couple of question marks in terms of health in the middle of the rotation.
Davies pitched to a 3.55 ERA last year for the Brewers, who lost in the NL Wild Card Game to the Washington Nationals. He pitched in 31 games with over 100 strikeouts in nearly 160 innings of work. He is just one of those guys that pitches every fifth day and will give you quality innings.
Dinelson Lamet. 3. player. 127. . .
Dinelson Lamet has the ability to be a very solid middle of the rotation arm and he has a devastating slider at times, but his question mark is if he can stay healthy.
He has had to deal with right elbow problems the last couple of seasons, and he had Tommy John surgery before the 2019 season which sidelined him until the last couple of months of the regular season.
Although it was a small sample size, he still was able to average about 5.2 innings a start and strikeout 105 batters.
The Padres love his upside but this might be his last chance to prove he can be reliable in what will be a stacked rotation in the near future.
player. 127. . . . Garrett Richards. 2
Garrett Richards is another starter that has some question marks in terms of health and durability. After the Angels did not bring him back he underwent Tommy John surgery before he opted for free agency.
The San Diego Padres signed Richards, 31, to a two-year deal before last season with the understanding that he was going to rehab pretty much all of 2019 and then come back strong for the 2020 season.
He was able to show the organization he was ready to pitch again, as he started three games at the end of the season. He sometimes has control problems but has a high 90’s fastball and when he is ‘on’ he can strikeout anyone.
Chris Paddack. 1. player. 127. . .
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Chris Paddack will be starting on Opening Day for the San Diego Padres assuming he stays healthy throughout the rest of the offseason and in Spring Training.
Although he did hit some rough patches in 2019, it was mainly with technique and he might have been a little fatigued. Some fans might remember when he was sent down for a little more than a week in the middle of the season but that was only to give him some more rest and to allow him to pitch further into the season than he would have if he were to make two starts in that timeframe.
But what the fans saw is what Chris Paddack is: a very upbeat and passionate pitcher when he is on the mound who has frontline starter written all over him.
He was arguably the best rookie pitcher in the game for the first couple of months and the highlight of his season–other than the near no-hitter at Miami–was in April.
He and Pete Alonso were vying for Rookie of the Month and after Alonso won, Paddack proceeded to strike him out twice (and nine other Mets hitters) on a night where he beat 2018 and 2019 Cy Young, Jacob deGrom.
He should have a more impactful season in 2020 considering that he will no have the innings limit hanging over him so he can have the freedom of pitching 7 innings every fifth day.
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I think he will also have some help at the end of the 2020 season–MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino–which will make the San Diego Padres have one of the best all-around pitching staffs (starting rotation and the bullpen) in the league.