MLB: The 25 most valuable pitchers of 2019

Here are the 25 starting pitchers who produced the most on-field value in the 2019 MLB season, based on the number of innings pitched, ERA+ and strikeouts.

In MLB, we’re pretty much obsessed with the concept of value. We apply a plethora of often exotic statistical approaches to measure it: batting average, slugging, home runs, WAR, OPS+, Defensive Runs Saved, Weighted Runs Created…the list goes on.

The one factor we generally overlook in all these assessments is the most meaningfully value-oriented of all of them: salary. What, precisely, was the player paid – relative to all other players tasked with doing what he was doing – and how much of that pay did he “earn?”

The rating system that follows corrects that oversight. Based on 2019 performance, it measures which players were the most “valuable” as judged by their on-field production relative to their salary. And let it be noted here that we are limiting our focus to on-field value only. Some players, megastars, are paid based largely on factors unrelated to on-field performance, their drawing power at the gate, their celebrity, their endorsement/promotional potential being among them. Those factors, while acknowledged as real, are not part of this discussion.

Today we’re looking at starting pitchers, a group defined by meeting either of two criteria. The first is workload: pitchers are included if they worked at least 150 innings and made at least 20 starts. The second criteria is salary: Even if they failed to meet the first criteria, pitchers are included if they were paid at least $10 million to be a starting pitcher.

In 2019, those criteria encompass 89 pitchers with an average salary of $10.5 million. Starters are rated based on three weighted performances, those being innings pitched (40 percent), strikeouts (20 percent), and ERA+ (40 percent).

Here are the averages for those three criteria: 164.51 innings, 162.66 strikeouts, and a 114.258 ERA+.

25. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays/New York Mets, $11.789 million value; $7.4 million salary

Stroman’s status is based largely on his 126 OPS+, 18th best among starters. He ranked 26th in innings with 184.1, but just 43rd in strikeouts with 159.

24. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, $11.881 million value; $12 million salary.

With 207.2 innings on the mound, Bumgarner was baseball’s ninth most-used pitcher. His 203 strikeouts ranked 22nd, but his 107 ERA+ stood only 50th among the group of 89. He counted 189 strikeouts, good for 27th overall.

23. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers, $12.061 million value; $31 million salary

Kershaw’s rank is compromised by his workload. With 178.1 innings on the mound in 2019, he ranked just 35th. Kershaw’s strength lay in his 137 ERA+, ranking 17th in the group.

22. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers, $12.131 million value; $570,000 salary

Buehler’s ranking is probably one of the bigger surprises, but his numbers uniformly verify his status in the lower reaches of the top 25. With 182.1 innings of work, he ranked just 31st. He registered 219 strikeouts, a total that stood 19th. His 127 ERA+ was 26th, solidifying his final position of 22nd.

21. Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins, $12.223 million value; $620,000 salary

Berrios’ 200.1 innings ranked 15th among all pitchers. He ranks only 21st overall due to his 124 ERA+, good for just 29th on the list. Berrios’s 195 strikeouts ranked 25th overall.

20. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox, $12.407 million value; $573,000 salary

Giolito’s 176.2 innings of work rank only 37th among the 89 starters. His 20th overall rank is supported by his 228 strikeouts, which ranked 16th, and also by his 134 OPS+, which is the 20th best.

19. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies, $12.419 million value; $4.50 million salary

Nola’s primary credential is his workload. He produced 202.1 innings, the majors’ 13th best total. His 229 strikeouts stand 14th. He would rank higher but for his 116 OPS+, only the MLB’s 35th best in that category.

18. Jacob Junis, Kansas City Royals, $12.434 million value; $578,000 salary

Largely overlooked due to the Royals’ consistently below average play, Junis had a 158 ERA+, MLB’s 7th best.  He failed to make the top 15 due to his 175.1 inning workload, just 39th best, and also due to his 164 strikeouts, the 38th highest total.

17. Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves, $12.532 million value; $569,000 salary

Soroka recorded a 169 ERA+, fourth-best in all of baseball. When he pitched, he was great. He ranks only 17th overall due to his run-of-the-mill workload, 174.2 innings. That’s just the 41st best total. As a result, he rang up just 142 strikeouts, ranking 61st in MLB.

16.   Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians/Cincinnati Reds, $12.567 million value; $13 million salary

Bauer pitched 213 innings, the third largest number in all of baseball, and that total helped him accumulate 253 strikeouts, the fifth highest total. So how does he rank only 16th overall? The answer lies in his pedestrian 104 ERA+, only the 52nd best performance in that category.

15. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox, $12.606 million value; $4.3 million salary

His 203.1 inning workload, the MLB’s 11th best, is the factor driving Rodriguez’s top 15 position. He fanned 213 batters, good for 20th, and compiled a 126 ERA+, the MLB’s 17th best.

14. Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds, $12.702 million value, $558,000 salary

Castillo’s rank of 14th is fixed on his consistency, with all three of the rating components between 17th and 22nd. He ranks 22nd in innings pitched with 190.2, 17th in strikeouts with 226 and 21st in ERA+ with 133.

13. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers, $13/23 million value; $9.833 million salary

The Rangers are one of three teams with at least two pitchers in the top 15, and the only one that didn’t play in the World Series. With a 208.1 inning workload, Minor ranked eighth. His 200 strikeouts stood only 24th, but he did have a 144 ERA+ that was good for 13th.

12. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals, $13.344 million value; $42.1423 million salary

Unless you count Zack Greinke as fully a Houstonian in 2019, the world champs are the only team with three pitchers among the top dozen. His 243 strikeouts and 157 ERA+ both ranked eighth in all of baseball. He fails to make the top 10 almost entirely due to his workload. His relatively light 172.1 innings of work stood just 47th among the 89 starters.

11. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers, $13.378 million value; $17.9 million salary

Ryu is the living manifestation of the Dodgers’ reliance on pitching depth to create quality. He delivered only 89.2 innings, just 30th among starters, and struck out just 163, the 39th best total. He ranks 11th due to his 179 ERA+, third best behind Houston’s two aces. Quality over quantity.

7. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals, $13.692 million value; $38.333 million salary

The hero of the 2019 World Series almost certainly ranks higher in the minds of most fans, especially Nationals fans. His chances of a top 5 rating were compromised by his 138 ERA+, only 16th best and worth $5.088 million in 2019.

But for that, Strasburg might have made the top five. He ranked fifth in workload with 209 innings, a total that valued at $5.352 million. His 251 strikeouts were sixth-best in the game, amounting to $3.251 million.

6. Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers, $13.715 million value; $9.333 million salary

ERA+ also got Lynn. His score of 141 amounted to $5.199 million in value, the MLB’s 14th highest total.

Had he raised that figure a few points, Lynn would rank among the game’s five best. His 308.1 innings pitched ranked seventh, producing $5.329 million in value. His 246 strikeouts also ranked seventh and added a final $3.186 million in value.

Lynn, who will be 32 when the season begins, is a former member of the Cardinals who – following one season with the Minnesota Twins — enjoyed a career renaissance in his first season with Texas. He is under contract to the Rangers through 2021.

5. Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals, $13.729 million value; $562,000 salary

Flaherty is one of the best illustrations of the fact that the best pitchers often arrive at a young and inexpensive age. Only recently turned 24, he blossomed into the ace of the Cardinal staff in his second full season, with a 2.75 ERA in 33 starts.

He also got better as he built experience, holding opposing batters to a .142 batting average over his 15 second half starts. In the heat of the September pennant race, Flaherty’s six starts produced a 3-1 record and 0.82 ERA.

Flaherty’s 196.1 innings of work represented only MLB’s 19th highest total, carrying a $5.022 million value. Teams are always leery about over-working kids. His 231 strikeouts ranked 13th with a $2.992 million value. He had five double-digit strikeout games, three of them in September.

Flaherty’s 155 ERA+, ninth-best, elevated his overall status to top 5. It brought a final $5.715 million.

Flaherty had an almost mystical ability to retire the other team’s cleanup hitters. He faced 93 batters in the No. 4 slot in 2019, and only 14 of them got a base hit off him; that’s an embarrassing .177 batting average against him from the four slot.

As a pre-arb player, Flaherty should continue to produce remarkable value for the Cardinals in 2020.

4. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians, $14.148 million value; $560,000 salary

The injuries to aces Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger that undermined Cleveland’s season allowed Bieber to emerge as a staff ace in 2019. One year older than Flaherty, he is in several other respects a clone. In his second full season, he went 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA. He also threw in two complete-game shutouts, something that’s almost impossible to due in these days of paranoid use of starting pitchers.

Bieber’s overpowering credential was that durability. He delivered 214.1 innings, a total surpassed by only one pitcher all season. Fifteen of his 34 starts carried through at least seven complete innings, and he had only three truly “short” starts of fewer than five innings. That reliability translated to $5.483 million in value.

That workload gave Bieber the opportunity to strike out 259 opposing batters, the third highest number and the most in baseball by anybody who didn’t pitch for the Astros. It added another $3.355 million to his value.

His 144 ERA+, while good, ranked only 12th and dragged his overall rating outside the top three. That 144 ERA+ valued at $5.31 million.

Also like Flaherty, Bieber is a pre-arb who won’t get a hearing until 2022. By then the Indians probably will have signed him to some sort of multi-season contract.

3. Jacob DeGrom, New York Mets, $14.685 million value; $9 million salary

DeGrom deservedly won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award with an 11-8 record and 2.43 ERA in 32 starts encompassing 204 innings. In so doing, he continued what has become something of an NL tradition, Tim Lincecum (2008-09), Clayton Kershaw (2013-14) and Max Scherzer (2016-17) all having also gone back to back with the award.

As has become DeGrom presumption, his teammates gave him minimal run support. In 10 of his 32 starts, they scored two or fewer runs, and that fact as much as any other accounted for five of DeGrim’s eight defeats.

If there was a blemish on DeGrom’s record, it was his workload. At heart DeGrom was a 7-inning pitcher; only once all season did he face a batter in the eighth inning. That held his innings total down to 204, the 10th highest total and valued at $5.224 million.

His other numbers were all superb. DeGrom fanned 255 batters, the MLB’s fourth highest total and worth $3.03 million. His 167 ERA+ was the sixth-best, contributing a final $6.158 million.

Logically, the Mets have signed DeGrom to a $160 million deal through 2024 that will pay him $25 million in 2020 and then average out to about $35 million per season. He won’t actually earn that much for his on-field contributions but he won’t have to. Few players are as much the face of their teams as deGrom is the face of the Mets.

2. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros, $16.197 million value; $28 million salary

Somebody should do a study of the value of post-35-year-old starters. Verlander’s continuing exceptional performance has to make him the exception to the rule.

During his age 36 season in 2019, Verlander posted a league-leading 21 victories on a league-best 223 innings, starting a league-best 34 games. Those numbers were founded on a league-best .803 WHIP and a league-best 5.5 hits per nine innings.

Verlander, in other words, pitched like he’s still in his prime. Perhaps he is.

Those 223 innings valued at $5.711 million and his 300 strikeouts added $3.886 million. His data points added up to a 179 ERA+, second only to his teammate Gerrit Cole, and merited another $6.6 million based on group performance.

The Astros have Verlander under contract for two more seasons at $33 million. He’ll be 39 by the time that contract expires, the natural assumption being that the pitcher will enter the decline phase any moment now.

That, after all, is what has happened to some excellent post-35 age pitchers.

The only problem is that Verlander isn’t showing any signs of decline yet. His workload has actually increased in each of the past three seasons, as have his win and strikeout totals and his ERA+.

1. Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros, $16.476 million value; $13.5 million salary

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Even hard-core Astros fans can’t blame Cole for cashing in on the celebrity he acquired during his two seasons with the Astros. Now he’s off to the Bronx for nine years at nearly three times the money.

Entering his age 29 season, Cole arrives as the consensus best pitcher in baseball. He won 20 games, delivered a league-best 2.50 ERA, and did so over 212.1 innings while striking out an MLB high 326 whiffs. His 185 ERA+ was MLB’s best, as was his 2.64 FIP.

How do those numbers value out? Cole’s 212.1 innings only ranks fourth, behind Verlander, Bieber, and Bauer, and equating to $5.432 million.

But his 326 Ks, valued at $4.223 million, puts Bauer well in his rear-view mirror and also edges in front of Verlander. He opens up the gap on Verlander and speeds by Bieber thanks to that 185 ERA+, which is valued at $6.821 million.

The $16.476 on-field value produced by Cole is even more remarkable when viewed in the context of his $13.5 million 2019 salary. The extended study of which this is a part has included an examination of the records of 69 players whose 2019 salaries were $13 million or more. Of those 69, only one – Cole – produced more in on-field value than he was paid.