Los Angeles Dodgers Seek Upside in Jimmy Nelson deal

The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed former Brewer Jimmy Nelson to a 1-year deal.  LA is making a pure upside play on a pitcher who has shown elite talent.

The new member of the Los Angeles Dodgers Jimmy Nelson just finished up a season that won’t go down as anything special in the books.  He threw 22 innings with a 6.95 ERA.  This season though represents a triumph for Nelson, who hadn’t pitched since 2017 after debilitating elbow and shoulder injuries.

The Brewers didn’t see enough in the late-season cameo to retain Nelson through arbitration despite that he would likely cost less than $5M.  The Dodgers have decided to take a gamble and add Nelson on a cheap $1M deal with incentives based on how he pitches.

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Rewind to 2017.  Jimmy Nelson was breaking out as a legitimate Ace for Milwaukee.  That season he threw 175 innings and racked up 4.8 fWAR on the back of a 50% ground ball rate, 27% K rate.

That 4.8 WAR number made Nelson a top 10 pitcher in baseball.  Better than Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw.  Nelson was thought to be on his way to anchoring a Brewers rotation to challenge the Cubs and Cardinals in NL Central.  It never came true since Nelson has struggled with injuries.

Back to 2020, the Dodgers have been the destination for pitchers with upside and injury questions, masterfully

manipulating

utilizing the 10-day injured list to always have pitchers available.  With traditional starter/reliever pitching roles going to the wayside, the Dodgers can find creative ways to use Nelson in the rotation or the bullpen depending on how he looks.  As a reminder, here is a video of Jimmy Nelson pitching for the Brewers in 2019.

This is a signing where both traditional and advanced metrics don’t really matter.  Nelson hadn’t been on a mound in two years and had to shake the rust that comes with a long layoff.  What matters here are the medical records and Nelson’s stuff.  When he came back, Nelson’s velocity was a tick below league average but his fastball and breaking ball both retained spin rates that are well above average.

Diving in deeper, Nelson’s spin rate on fastballs is very similar to Dodgers ace Walker Buehler and Ace in training Dustin May.  Looking at sliders, Nelson’s spin rate compares favorably to that of former Dodger Rich Hill and has a higher spin rate than Louis Severino and Trevor Bauer.  So the Dodgers just signed a Frankenstein version of pitchers they already like.  If Nelson can regain some of the velocity he lost, he has the chance to regain his ace form.  Even if he doesn’t the Dodgers will craft a pitching plan to maximize these pitches and get hitters out in whatever role he settles into.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are hoping to capture lightning in a bottle by signing Nelson.  There is a chance, even if it’s a remote one, Nelson comes all the way back and pitches like an Ace.  Nelson is a true wild card but one that comes with serious upside.

Whether it’s supporting the back half of a rotation or serving as a one or multi-inning reliever, Nelson is a pitcher with a wide range of outcome who could play a big or small role in helping the Dodgers get that elusive World Series trophy.