6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse in the 2020 season
By Bill Felber
6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse
Washington Nationals
As reigning World Series champions, the Nats are accorded a 2020 post-season berth almost by default. But beware, there be dragons ahead for them, too.
The most obvious is the loss of Anthony Rendon to free agency. That leaves a lineup devoid of a legitimate No. 3 hitter unless Dave Martinez moves Juan Soto there, in which case the Nats have no legitimate cleanup hitter.
They also, absent some upcoming game-changing deal, lack cover for Soto, who produced a 4.7 AR and 138 OPS+ batting behind Rendon in 2019. The closest the Nats come to projecting cover for Soto is Howie Kendrick, who had a great 2019. He hit .344. But Kendrick’s 370 plate appearances only amounted to about half a season. Beyond that, he’ll be 36 in 2020, and his career numbers don’t begin to suggest he could replicate his 2019 work over a full 2020 season.
The Nats did re-up Stephen Strasburg, fortifying their rotation. With Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez all returning, it’s obviously the team pillar.
But Scherzer will be 35 in 2020, so the same questions about Verlander’s continued production level are fairly asked of him. Compared with the previous season, in 2019, Scherzer pitched nearly 50 fewer innings, won seven fewer games, stuck out 57 fewer opponents, and saw a 15 percent rise in his ERA. Even if those trends continue in 2020, they don’t make a bad pitcher … but they also don’t make the Max Scherzer that Nationals fans have come to know and love.
The Nats bullpen was notoriously bad in 2019. Given the naturally volatile state of bullpens, that may mean it will be notoriously great in 2020…but you may not want to bet on it. Three of the four guys who were mainstays of that volatility – Sean Doolittle, Wander Suero, and Tanner Rainey – are back in 2020. That means Will Harris, obtained as a free agent, is the “fix.”
The Nats will also have to overcome what might be termed the World Series jinx. No team has repeated as World Series champion since the Yankees did it in 2000. Excluding the Nats, of the 18 champions since then 15 lost more games trying to defend their title than they did in winning it, and 10 failed to even qualify for post-season play.