6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse in the 2020 season

Six perennially strong MLB teams who could face a downturn, and possibly even collapse, if things don’t go exactly as planned in 2020.

Projecting favorites for 2020 inevitably focuses on many of the usual suspects. The Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and defending champion Nationals all draw recurring support … as most of them have for years now.

But 2020, however, may be shaping up as a season of turmoil and even collapse for several of the usual favorites. At least a half dozen have had challenging off-seasons, either due to personnel losses, off-field issues, financial strictures or natural aging.

Combine that with the apparent rise of some of the game’s recent downtrodden – we’re thinking here of the Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, and Oakland Athletics – and this coming season might upend the standard for divisional hierarchy we have become used to.

In fact, several perennial front-runners could be in for a big collapse in 2020.

Below we consider the potential fates of a half dozen MLB teams who each fit that description.  Between them they have won 57 percent of their games, 16 division titles, and four World Series in the past five years.  In almost every case, expectations remain high in 2020.

Yet a closer look reveals potential cracks in each team’s façade that could fracture the pattern of success in 2020.

This doesn’t mean all of these MLB teams will collapse. Yet the reality, especially for playoff teams, is always perilous. Since 2010, 45 of the game’s 94 post-season qualifiers failed to return to post-season play one season later. Of the ten 2018 playoff teams, four—the defending champion Red Sox the Cubs, the Rockies and the Indians — went home at the conclusion of the 2019 regular season.

So it’s not only reasonable to look for flaws among perennial contenders, it’s required. Here, then, is a look at the potential problems that could undermine some of the game’s royalty in 2020.

6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse

Houston Astros

The first and most obvious concern is the loss of ace pitcher Gerrit Cole to free agency. Cole went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA across 33 starts in 2019, so his departure for the Bronx creates an obvious gaping problem.

The Astros’ present plan, obviously subject to change on short notice, is to replace Cole’s performance with some combination of Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, Jose Urquidi, and Framber Valdez. Beyond that, by the way, they hope the quartet will also fill the team’s No. 4 and 5 starting roles behind Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke.

McCullers is coming back from elbow surgery that cost him all of 2019. The collective 2019 performance of the other three amounted to a 13-14 record and 4.68 ERA in 30 starts. The odds of finding three starters for a pennant winner from among those four? Hey, it’s January, so there’s still hope.

The Astros plan assumes another big season from Verlander. That’s a reasonable presumption, but it glosses over the fact that he will be 37 in 2020, an age at which few pitchers continue to be overpowering.

There are few recent parallels for the expected performance of age 37 pitchers.  To the extent you place any faith in projections, Baseball-Reference projects him at 15-7 with a 3.12 ERA in 193 innings. That would be good, but it would still represent six fewer wins, 30 fewer innings and a 20 percent increase in his ERA.

There’s also the matter of the sign-stealing turmoil that has overshadowed the Astros’ off-season. It is a totally fair question of what penalties MLB imposes, and what impact that has on the team’s leadership structure.

Finally, history is against Houston. The Astros are coming off their third consecutive divisional championship. That matches the longest such string in the franchise’s history. The last time Houston won three straight, from 1997 through 1999, they sank to fourth with a 72-90 record the following season. This team has too much talent to fall that hard, but given the numerous uncertainties entering 2020, it would be silly to take a fourth straight division title as a foregone conclusion.

6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse

Washington Nationals

As reigning World Series champions, the Nats are accorded a 2020 post-season berth almost by default. But beware, there be dragons ahead for them, too.

The most obvious is the loss of Anthony Rendon to free agency. That leaves a lineup devoid of a legitimate No. 3 hitter unless Dave Martinez moves Juan Soto there, in which case the Nats have no legitimate cleanup hitter.

They also, absent some upcoming game-changing deal, lack cover for Soto, who produced a 4.7 AR and 138 OPS+ batting behind Rendon in 2019. The closest the Nats come to projecting cover for Soto is Howie Kendrick, who had a great 2019. He hit .344. But Kendrick’s 370 plate appearances only amounted to about half a season. Beyond that, he’ll be 36 in 2020, and his career numbers don’t begin to suggest he could replicate his 2019 work over a full 2020 season.

The Nats did re-up Stephen Strasburg, fortifying their rotation. With Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez all returning, it’s obviously the team pillar.

But Scherzer will be 35 in 2020, so the same questions about Verlander’s continued production level are fairly asked of him. Compared with the previous season, in 2019, Scherzer pitched nearly 50 fewer innings, won seven fewer games, stuck out 57 fewer opponents, and saw a 15 percent rise in his ERA. Even if those trends continue in 2020, they don’t make a bad pitcher … but they also don’t make the Max Scherzer that Nationals fans have come to know and love.

The Nats bullpen was notoriously bad in 2019. Given the naturally volatile state of bullpens, that may mean it will be notoriously great in 2020…but you may not want to bet on it. Three of the four guys who were mainstays of that volatility – Sean Doolittle, Wander Suero, and Tanner Rainey – are back in 2020. That means Will Harris, obtained as a free agent, is the “fix.”

The Nats will also have to overcome what might be termed the World Series jinx. No team has repeated as World Series champion since the Yankees did it in 2000. Excluding the Nats, of the 18 champions since then 15 lost more games trying to defend their title than they did in winning it, and 10 failed to even qualify for post-season play.

6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse

Los Angeles Dodgers

The potential for their decline isn’t as severe as is the peril confronting either of the 2019 World Series contestants. But it should not be overlooked, and it begins with their pitching.

The Dodgers lost starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, who gave them a combined 42 starts and 2.35 ERA. They are prepared to enter 2020 with a rotation featuring Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Jose Urias, and either rookie Tony Gonsolin or Ross Stripling. That could work just fine. Still, consider the question marks.

Kershaw’s workload has moderated since his peak seasons, and he’s now basically a 25-start, 170 inning guy. That’s what he’s averaged since 2016.

Maeda has developed a reputation as a better reliever than a starter. In 2019, he made 26 starts and produced an 8-8 record with a 4.14 ERA. As a spot reliever, he went 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA. His WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings and strikeouts per walks all were better pitching in relief. It is, then, a fair question whether he’s reliable in the No. 3 starter role the Dodgers project for him.

Urias and Stripling have been heralded for two seasons now, and it’s possible that 2020 is the year both come into their own. In more lightly used roles, they have both shown flashes, combining in 2019 for an 8-7 record and 3.02 ERA. But that’s just in 23 starts. How will they fare starting 60 games?

As for Gonsolin, there’s really no guarantee at all. Limited to 11 appearances and 40 innings in a 2019 tryout, he produced a 4-2 record and 2.92 ERA.

Buehler is the closest thing one gets in pitching to a sure thing. Beyond him, however, the Dodgers are relying on a pitcher who by age is likely to be entering his decline phase, another whose work as a starter has raised questions and three kids who can only be classified as unproven.

6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse

Milwaukee Brewers

Any team with Christian Yelich at the heart of its order ought to be in pretty good shape. Too bad he can’t also pitch.

The Brewers rotation, which always looks questionable this time of year, is suspect again. Brandon Woodruff is the projected ace, coming off a 2019 season in which he went 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 22 starts. Assume Woodruff, sidelined by injuries for the first half of last season, is healthy…what then?

Milwaukee’s answer involves some combination of Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Eric Lauer, and Brent Suter.  Anderson is a junk-baller who did go 13-9 with a 3.89 ERA for Oakland last season, but who between 2016 and 2018 averaged just 48 innings of work.

Lauer went 8-10 with a 4.45 ERA in 29 starts for San Diego. Lindblom, released by the Pirates in 2017, pitched the last two seasons in Korea. Suter and Houser started a combined 18 games last season, working 129 innings with a collective 3.28 ERA. So uncertainty abounds.

The Brewers also lost two significant parts of their lineup in catcher Yasmani Grandal and infielder Mike Moustakas. The Brewers will replace Grandal with Omar Narvaez, a solid hitter but whose lack of defensive skills have gotten him evicted from starting jobs in Chicago and Seattle in consecutive seasons. Milwaukee’s pitching is shaky enough; turning it over to Narvaez is asking for trouble.

The Brewers are looking to Eric Sogard and possibly Ryan Healy to cover for Moustakas at third base. For Toronto and Tampa, Sogard produced a .290 average and 116 OPS+ in 2019. But his 442 plate appearances — about 60 percent of a normal season — were a personal high. He will also be playing a power position without power credentials; his career-best is 13 home runs in 2019.

Finally, like the Astros, the Brewers will be battling history. They won the NL Central in 2018 and finished second as a wild card in 2019. Never in the franchise’s history dating back to 1969 have the Brewers finished first or second in their division for three years running.

6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse

Chicago Cubs

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Like the Red Sox, much of the Cubs’ 2020 profile remains to be written. Will Kris Bryant be traded? How about Willson Contreras or Kyle Schwarber. The answers to those questions will say much about the team’s short-term prospects.

But there is no scenario by which those prospects are improving. When they won the World Series in 2016, the Cubs won 103 games, the most in franchise history since 1910. They won 84 in 2019, a 20 percent regression in three seasons.

The first problem is the performance of a rotation that is charitably viewed as average. The ace, Jon Lester, will be 36. As noted with respect to Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer, pitchers tend to regress at that age. Lester was 13-10 but with a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts in 2019, and if the Cubs got that much out of him in 2020 they’d be thrilled.

Their other three rotation members – Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, and Jose Quintana – delivered a combined 92 starts in which they went 30-27 with a 3.96 ERA.

The fifth starter? Who knows? The Cubs winter book projects Tyler Chatwood or Alec Mills in that role. Chatwood is a modern version of Rex Barney, of whom it was once said that he could throw a ball through the side of a barn…if he could hit the barn.

Mills, obtained from Kansas City prior to the 2017 season, made four late-season starts last year. Across parts of three major league seasons, he has a career 57 innings under his belt.

Did we miss something? Which MLB teams do you think are on the brink of collapse this coming season?