Phillies: Low-to-high victory forecast for 2020

Hitting:     

For calculation purposes, each mentioned Phillies player on 2020’s active roster adds one win to the base of 86 victories with minuses in each page’s last paragraph. However, some feel no skipper can improve the club, and that would be true when the red pinstripes began their first full rebuilding 162. But this squad has talent.

Leading off, Andrew McCutchen ignited the offense and is a solid left field defender. But after he had suffered his campaign-ending injury, run production noticeably fell off. Unfortunately, naysayers can point to his injury as a reason to expect nothing.

Swapping Rhys Hoskins based on his second half has the downside of selling low and a bounce-back summer. Plus he is slightly above the MLB minimum and won’t be a free agent until after the 2023 season. Translation: No GM takes on a veteran starter’s salary in return for four years of cost-efficient production.

Phillies 2019’s stats:

• McCutchen‘s 1st half: 59 Gms., 219 AB, 262 PA, .256, 10 HR, 29 RBI, a .378 OBP, an .834 OPS and a 120 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
• Hoskins‘ 1st half: 89 Gms., 315 AB, 392 PA, .263, 20 HR, 59 RBI, a .401 OBP, a .931 OPS and a 140 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
• 2nd half: 71 Gms., 255 AB, 313 PA, .180, 9 HR, 26 RBI, a .318 OBP, a .679 OPS and a 78 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
• Realmuto‘s 1st half: 85 Gms., 318 AB, 338 PA, .273, 10 HR, 42 RBI, a .328 OBP, a .767 OPS and a 97 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
  2nd half: 60 Gms., 230 AB, 255 PA, .278, 15 HR, 41 RBI, a .327 OBP, an .892 OPS and a 122 wRC+ (100 is avg.).

After a first half of learning the pitching staff, J.T. Realmuto devoted more time to his hitting, and his stats were dramatically better. So, expect more production in the first half than he provided in ’19. But his results will depend on batting second or sixth.

While McCutchen roughly takes the place of Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco‘s replacement is basically Didi Gregorius. And being a left-side bat with pop is a plus, but the boobirds expect less than Franco’s numbers due to an injury even though the shortstop proved he was healthy by playing from June 7 though the playoffs.

After deducting two wins from the above four, the increase is to 88 victories. Yes, this is a conservative estimate for the hometown nine.

Pitching:       

For ’20, Phillies hurlers will experience two new variables. They are a ball to replace the homer-friendly one from ’19., and the other is the three-batter rule mostly affecting relievers. Ergo, home runs and pitching changes won’t be as plentiful but will impact the outcome of many contests. Slight advantage: the Fightins!

Aaron Nola struggled with a 5.68 ERA through April’s end and a 6.51 September ERA with three defeats. In ’18, the ace went 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA through April and 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA for September: his worse month. But Zack Wheeler will take some of the head-of-the-rotation pressure off Nola.

Acquiring Wheeler should provide one victory more than another in-house starter from 2019. And that’s only if he produces similar results to ’19, which isn’t an unrealistic expectation. But if he takes his game to the next level, he could be the difference-maker between winning the NL East and a wild-card berth.

Slotting third, Zach Eflin has convinced armchair GMs he’s a fifth-rung arm at best. However, he went 8-8 with a 3.34 ERA through June and 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA from August 17 to September’s end. But the sinkerballer –whose rookie coach insisted on the high-heat strike– went 0-4 with a 12.63 ERA for four starts and a trip to the pen..

Improving over an injury-plagued relief corps won’t be the hardest task for Bryan Price, who has coached since 2001. Plus he deals with each individual unlike his predecessor, and it will also be his job to accelerate the development of Seranthony Dominguez, who needs the help Price can provide.

Again, the detractors have zero confidence in the bullpen despite the injuries and questionable coaching. But Hector Neris, Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez –if he isn’t in the rotation– will benefit from the individualized approach. So, that’s plus five wins but minus three to equal 90 triumphs..

Pluses and minuses:

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Beginning with 2019’s 81 wins, the Phillies added five triumphs with the Girardi hire and nine victories with eight players and the pen each contributing one more win in ’20. But deduct five victories for a 90 tally because some things won’t work out, plus unforeseen injuries and disappointments will occur in an average 162.

Basically, the doubting Thomases either expect more than management does from their employees, and they overvalue the fifth slot that some figure for Eflin and/or Arrieta, while they also overestimate divisional foes. Plus they consider a down summer or an injury to anticipate failure instead of an 86-90 victory range.

For now, the negative fan base can’t see the Phils’ advantages. And if the Fightins are healthy, they will be in the postseason hunt. But that could be problematic for the naysayers who demand Klentak’s dismissal –he could get axed with another .500 mark– so what outcome would they prefer? The playoffs or a fired GM?

If you have any questions or opinions regarding the Philadelphia Phillies, please open the comments section.