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Phillies: Low-to-high victory forecast for 2020

By Tal Venada

PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 28: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Philadelphia Phillies rounds third base as he scores on a triple by Jean Segura #2 against the Miami Marlins during the third inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 28, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 28: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Philadelphia Phillies rounds third base as he scores on a triple by Jean Segura #2 against the Miami Marlins during the third inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 28, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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After a dreadful second half, Hoskins bouncing back will solidify the first five or six holes in the lineup. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

Hitting:     

For calculation purposes, each mentioned Phillies player on 2020’s active roster adds one win to the base of 86 victories with minuses in each page’s last paragraph. However, some feel no skipper can improve the club, and that would be true when the red pinstripes began their first full rebuilding 162. But this squad has talent.

Leading off, Andrew McCutchen ignited the offense and is a solid left field defender. But after he had suffered his campaign-ending injury, run production noticeably fell off. Unfortunately, naysayers can point to his injury as a reason to expect nothing.

Swapping Rhys Hoskins based on his second half has the downside of selling low and a bounce-back summer. Plus he is slightly above the MLB minimum and won’t be a free agent until after the 2023 season. Translation: No GM takes on a veteran starter’s salary in return for four years of cost-efficient production.

Phillies 2019’s stats:

  • McCutchen‘s 1st half: 59 Gms., 219 AB, 262 PA, .256, 10 HR, 29 RBI, a .378 OBP, an .834 OPS and a 120 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
  • Hoskins‘ 1st half: 89 Gms., 315 AB, 392 PA, .263, 20 HR, 59 RBI, a .401 OBP, a .931 OPS and a 140 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
  • 2nd half: 71 Gms., 255 AB, 313 PA, .180, 9 HR, 26 RBI, a .318 OBP, a .679 OPS and a 78 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
  • Realmuto‘s 1st half: 85 Gms., 318 AB, 338 PA, .273, 10 HR, 42 RBI, a .328 OBP, a .767 OPS and a 97 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
    2nd half: 60 Gms., 230 AB, 255 PA, .278, 15 HR, 41 RBI, a .327 OBP, an .892 OPS and a 122 wRC+ (100 is avg.).

After a first half of learning the pitching staff, J.T. Realmuto devoted more time to his hitting, and his stats were dramatically better. So, expect more production in the first half than he provided in ’19. But his results will depend on batting second or sixth.

While McCutchen roughly takes the place of Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco‘s replacement is basically Didi Gregorius. And being a left-side bat with pop is a plus, but the boobirds expect less than Franco’s numbers due to an injury even though the shortstop proved he was healthy by playing from June 7 though the playoffs.

After deducting two wins from the above four, the increase is to 88 victories. Yes, this is a conservative estimate for the hometown nine.

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