Phillies: Low-to-high victory forecast for 2020

Pitching:       

For ’20, Phillies hurlers will experience two new variables. They are a ball to replace the homer-friendly one from ’19., and the other is the three-batter rule mostly affecting relievers. Ergo, home runs and pitching changes won’t be as plentiful but will impact the outcome of many contests. Slight advantage: the Fightins!

Aaron Nola struggled with a 5.68 ERA through April’s end and a 6.51 September ERA with three defeats. In ’18, the ace went 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA through April and 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA for September: his worse month. But Zack Wheeler will take some of the head-of-the-rotation pressure off Nola.

Acquiring Wheeler should provide one victory more than another in-house starter from 2019. And that’s only if he produces similar results to ’19, which isn’t an unrealistic expectation. But if he takes his game to the next level, he could be the difference-maker between winning the NL East and a wild-card berth.

Slotting third, Zach Eflin has convinced armchair GMs he’s a fifth-rung arm at best. However, he went 8-8 with a 3.34 ERA through June and 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA from August 17 to September’s end. But the sinkerballer –whose rookie coach insisted on the high-heat strike– went 0-4 with a 12.63 ERA for four starts and a trip to the pen..

Improving over an injury-plagued relief corps won’t be the hardest task for Bryan Price, who has coached since 2001. Plus he deals with each individual unlike his predecessor, and it will also be his job to accelerate the development of Seranthony Dominguez, who needs the help Price can provide.

Again, the detractors have zero confidence in the bullpen despite the injuries and questionable coaching. But Hector Neris, Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez –if he isn’t in the rotation– will benefit from the individualized approach. So, that’s plus five wins but minus three to equal 90 triumphs..