Phillies: Low-to-high victory forecast for 2020

Incrementally, the Phillies predictions here employ a moderate increase based on 2019’s misfortunes, a top-tier skipper recently signed, and the roster additions of general manager Matt Klentak if the team remains reasonably healthy.

Upward shift:   

While the Philadelphia Phillies faithful with the loudest and most persistent voices might convince and/or intimidate their optimistic brethren, are they the majority or an easily dissatisfied corner of the fan base? And these locals want most top decision-makers fired. Move the club instead?

IN OTHER WORDS: “In the United States today, we have more than our share of the nattering nabobs of negativism. They have formed their own 4-H Club – the ‘hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.'” – Spiro T. Agnew (speechwriter William Safire)

Unlike the detractors’ beliefs, positive signs are at many positions: the infield, the outfield, catching and the mound. But some fans refuse to notice any hope-filled reasons. No, they argue there is only their correct view of the organization and its personnel.

Are the stars, execs and owners of the four major sports just convenient scapegoats for fans to vent their anger over life’s unpleasant side?  Unfortunately, this isn’t the only city or country: It’s everywhere with leisurely activities, but a victory can temporarily soothe it..

Some locals believe injured players will fail, and the others will match their lows from a partial or an entire season. Surprisingly, they allow a handful of favorites to receive no criticism, why? If you’re going to be 90 percent negative and only positive when necessary, is it a lip-service 10 percent?

Following 2018 and 2019, the negative supporters here have predicted a top expectation of a third-place tie with the New York Mets to a low of competing with the Miami Marlins for fourth place. But if the Fightins get off to a slow start, will they guarantee a drop to the National League East cellar with talk of a first overall draft pick?

My forecast doesn’t consider any signings or trades before April or August. Obviously, all teams have injuries, disappointments and surprises. To illustrate, 2011’s four aces set the franchise record with 102 triumphs but an NLDS defeat. Meanwhile, the 1980 and 2008 champions had their celebratory parades.

The starting point is the 81 wins before inking a front-of-the-rotation type and a left-handed shortstop with power. Rule of thumb: A manager can be worth five victories or losses, but Joe Girardi has always added more wins even with the Marlins. So, the expectation is 86 triumphs based on 2019’s record.

Hitting:     

For calculation purposes, each mentioned Phillies player on 2020’s active roster adds one win to the base of 86 victories with minuses in each page’s last paragraph. However, some feel no skipper can improve the club, and that would be true when the red pinstripes began their first full rebuilding 162. But this squad has talent.

Leading off, Andrew McCutchen ignited the offense and is a solid left field defender. But after he had suffered his campaign-ending injury, run production noticeably fell off. Unfortunately, naysayers can point to his injury as a reason to expect nothing.

Swapping Rhys Hoskins based on his second half has the downside of selling low and a bounce-back summer. Plus he is slightly above the MLB minimum and won’t be a free agent until after the 2023 season. Translation: No GM takes on a veteran starter’s salary in return for four years of cost-efficient production.

Phillies 2019’s stats:

• McCutchen‘s 1st half: 59 Gms., 219 AB, 262 PA, .256, 10 HR, 29 RBI, a .378 OBP, an .834 OPS and a 120 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
• Hoskins‘ 1st half: 89 Gms., 315 AB, 392 PA, .263, 20 HR, 59 RBI, a .401 OBP, a .931 OPS and a 140 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
• 2nd half: 71 Gms., 255 AB, 313 PA, .180, 9 HR, 26 RBI, a .318 OBP, a .679 OPS and a 78 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
• Realmuto‘s 1st half: 85 Gms., 318 AB, 338 PA, .273, 10 HR, 42 RBI, a .328 OBP, a .767 OPS and a 97 wRC+ (100 is avg.).
  2nd half: 60 Gms., 230 AB, 255 PA, .278, 15 HR, 41 RBI, a .327 OBP, an .892 OPS and a 122 wRC+ (100 is avg.).

After a first half of learning the pitching staff, J.T. Realmuto devoted more time to his hitting, and his stats were dramatically better. So, expect more production in the first half than he provided in ’19. But his results will depend on batting second or sixth.

While McCutchen roughly takes the place of Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco‘s replacement is basically Didi Gregorius. And being a left-side bat with pop is a plus, but the boobirds expect less than Franco’s numbers due to an injury even though the shortstop proved he was healthy by playing from June 7 though the playoffs.

After deducting two wins from the above four, the increase is to 88 victories. Yes, this is a conservative estimate for the hometown nine.

Pitching:       

For ’20, Phillies hurlers will experience two new variables. They are a ball to replace the homer-friendly one from ’19., and the other is the three-batter rule mostly affecting relievers. Ergo, home runs and pitching changes won’t be as plentiful but will impact the outcome of many contests. Slight advantage: the Fightins!

Aaron Nola struggled with a 5.68 ERA through April’s end and a 6.51 September ERA with three defeats. In ’18, the ace went 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA through April and 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA for September: his worse month. But Zack Wheeler will take some of the head-of-the-rotation pressure off Nola.

Acquiring Wheeler should provide one victory more than another in-house starter from 2019. And that’s only if he produces similar results to ’19, which isn’t an unrealistic expectation. But if he takes his game to the next level, he could be the difference-maker between winning the NL East and a wild-card berth.

Slotting third, Zach Eflin has convinced armchair GMs he’s a fifth-rung arm at best. However, he went 8-8 with a 3.34 ERA through June and 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA from August 17 to September’s end. But the sinkerballer –whose rookie coach insisted on the high-heat strike– went 0-4 with a 12.63 ERA for four starts and a trip to the pen..

Improving over an injury-plagued relief corps won’t be the hardest task for Bryan Price, who has coached since 2001. Plus he deals with each individual unlike his predecessor, and it will also be his job to accelerate the development of Seranthony Dominguez, who needs the help Price can provide.

Again, the detractors have zero confidence in the bullpen despite the injuries and questionable coaching. But Hector Neris, Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez –if he isn’t in the rotation– will benefit from the individualized approach. So, that’s plus five wins but minus three to equal 90 triumphs..