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2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Free Agent Player Prop Bets

By Ryan Sanders

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 18: (L-R) New York Yankee Pitching Coach, Matt Blake, Gerrit Cole, New York Yankee Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 18: (L-R) New York Yankee Pitching Coach, Matt Blake, Gerrit Cole, New York Yankee Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
(Photo by Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images) /

2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Player Prop Bets

Stephen Strasburg

Regular Season Strikeouts, Over/Under 210.5, -110

This number feels inflated based on Strasburg’s career year in 2019.  He racked up 251 Ks in 209 innings but has only passed over the 210 mark twice with the other time being 2014.  Steamer projects Strasburg to get 229 strikeouts in 203 innings for 2020.  Strasburg has retained his elite stuff and knows how to get hitters out, but between the Nats managing his innings for another postseason run and the toll of a short offseason, the Under is the safer bet here.

Pick – Under

To Win NL Cy Young, +1000

Stay far far far far away from this bet.  Strasburg has the same odds as Gerrit Cole who is by far the better pitcher.  Strasburg is also sharing a league with perennial contenders, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.  Throw in guys like Walker Buehler, Luis Castillo, Jack Flaherty, and Noah Syndergaard, and competition for the award will be incredibly stiff.  Mix in the fact that Strasburg just threw over 200 innings for the first time since 2014, the Nats will be managing his workload closely

No, Stay Away

2020 MLB Season Wins, Over/Under 13.5, -110

The Win as a useful stat is dead but as a mechanism to gamble is very much alive.  Strasburg’s steamer projection says he will win 14 games.  There have only been three times in Strasburg’s career he hasn’t won more than 13 games and in two of those seasons, he threw 130 innings or less.  The other risk factor here is the Nationals’ bullpen has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league and gives games away.  The Nats still have Sean Doolittle, resigned Daniel Hudson, and will continue to compliment their bullpen with pieces that might work or might not.  One last consideration that makes me lean over is Strasburg follows workhorse Max Scherzer in the rotation.  In theory, better relievers will be available for Strasburg since the bullpen does less work on his start days.

Pick – Over

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