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2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Free Agent Player Prop Bets

By Ryan Sanders

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 18: (L-R) New York Yankee Pitching Coach, Matt Blake, Gerrit Cole, New York Yankee Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 18: (L-R) New York Yankee Pitching Coach, Matt Blake, Gerrit Cole, New York Yankee Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Player Prop Bets

Anthony Rendon

To Win AL MVP, +1000

Fade this pick.  Rendon’s new teammate Mike Trout proves how difficult it can be to win an MVP even when you are the best player year in and year out.  If the Angels make the playoffs, Rendon, Trout, Ohtani, and Andrelton Simmons will have had great years and that will split the vote.  This is a guy who was criminally underrated for years and despite putting up three 6 win seasons, didn’t make his first All Star team until this year.

No, Stay Away

2020 MLB Season Batting Average, Over/Under 295.5, -110

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Rendon has had a batting average of .319, .308, and .301 over the past three seasons.  He has spent his entire career in the National League and will be moving to the AL West.  There could be an adjustment period since Rendon won’t be familiar with most of these guys but between his eliteness and video scouting, shouldn’t be a big deal.  Statistically, there is nothing meaningfully different from the NL East to the AL West in terms of average  K rate or anything else.  Looking at Park Factors, the Nationals and Angels both play in parks conducive to offense.

Where Rendon really shines is looking at his Statcast profile.  Rendon was in the top 1% in expected batting average (xBA) at .319 so it was absolutely not a fluke.  His 2018 season was much of the same, with an xBA of .307 and in the top 2% of the league.  Unless adjusting to a new league presents unforseen issues, Rendon’s quality of contact would indicate he should smash this number.

Pick – Over

Regular Season Home Runs, Over/Under 26.5, -110 

Rendon hit 34 home runs this year with the super juiced ball after averaging  in the mid 20s.  If you think MLB is going to switch out the ball to dampen offense you may want to bet the under on most home run projections this year.  For Rendon in particular, 27 would be the second highest number of his career.  Steamer projects Rendon for 28 dingers so the numbers are pretty spot on.  If you think Rendon will continue to be elite, the Over is the pick here.  I think Rendon is going to be excellent this season but I would wait until spring training to see how the ball is playing for all Home Run bets.

Next. 6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse. dark

Pick – Wait and See

These guys are the first to have some of their proposition bets out since they are major free agents.  As more props and other bets for players and teams come out, Call to The Pen will be on it to make sure you find the best value picks.

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