2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Free Agent Player Prop Bets
‘Call To The Pen’ is checking in with ‘The Action Network’ and ‘PointsBet’ to find value on Player Prop Bets for the 2020 MLB season.
Pitchers and Catchers report in February and the 2020 MLB Season will be upon us before we know it. We checked in last week on Division Odds and where you should be betting. Today, we turn our attention to some early player prop bets from high-profile free agents.
Our partner, The Action Network, provides us with the latest player props to bet on. These numbers will continue to shift as the offseason progresses and more bets are placed. The player props today focus on some of the major free agents from this class, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg since those generate the most interest.
Gerrit Cole
2020 MLB Season Strikeouts, Over/Under 280.5, -110
The Yankees won the prize of the offseason inking Cole to a 9 year, $324M deal. The O/U for his regular-season strikeout total is 280.5. In 2019, Cole racked up 326 Ks over 212.1 innings in what was a career year. The only other time Cole approached that number was the year before when he got 276. Steamer projects Cole to rack up 281 strikeouts in 202 innings this season.
While Cole is staying in the American League, he will be facing the formidable AL East which is a more difficult division than the Central. From a strikeout perspective, the East wasn’t meaningfully different from the West and the trades out facing the Yankees for the Astros and their magic trashcan.
The under seems to be the better bet in this case. Cole has been in back to back postseason runs and after the Yankees season where everyone got injured, you have to figure they will monitor his workload closely. That means early exits from starts, minimal outings of 100 pitches, and pushing back starts as needed with the Yankees more focused on ring chasing as opposed to regular season accolades.
Pick – Under
To Throw a No-Hitter, Yes +2000
Throwing a no-hitter has more to do with luck than skill. Of the 4 no-hitters thrown in 2019, only two were thrown by one pitcher and they were Cy Young Winner and rotation mate Justin Verlander and former rotation mate Mike Fiers in Oakland. Logic says you face the Orioles enough times and you’ll throw one, but picking one person to throw a no-hitter is mostly a fool’s errand.
No – Stay Away
2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Player Prop Bets
Stephen Strasburg
Regular Season Strikeouts, Over/Under 210.5, -110
This number feels inflated based on Strasburg’s career year in 2019. He racked up 251 Ks in 209 innings but has only passed over the 210 mark twice with the other time being 2014. Steamer projects Strasburg to get 229 strikeouts in 203 innings for 2020. Strasburg has retained his elite stuff and knows how to get hitters out, but between the Nats managing his innings for another postseason run and the toll of a short offseason, the Under is the safer bet here.
Pick – Under
To Win NL Cy Young, +1000
Stay far far far far away from this bet. Strasburg has the same odds as Gerrit Cole who is by far the better pitcher. Strasburg is also sharing a league with perennial contenders, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Throw in guys like Walker Buehler, Luis Castillo, Jack Flaherty, and Noah Syndergaard, and competition for the award will be incredibly stiff. Mix in the fact that Strasburg just threw over 200 innings for the first time since 2014, the Nats will be managing his workload closely
No, Stay Away
2020 MLB Season Wins, Over/Under 13.5, -110
The Win as a useful stat is dead but as a mechanism to gamble is very much alive. Strasburg’s steamer projection says he will win 14 games. There have only been three times in Strasburg’s career he hasn’t won more than 13 games and in two of those seasons, he threw 130 innings or less. The other risk factor here is the Nationals’ bullpen has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league and gives games away. The Nats still have Sean Doolittle, resigned Daniel Hudson, and will continue to compliment their bullpen with pieces that might work or might not. One last consideration that makes me lean over is Strasburg follows workhorse Max Scherzer in the rotation. In theory, better relievers will be available for Strasburg since the bullpen does less work on his start days.
Pick – Over
2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Player Prop Bets
Anthony Rendon
To Win AL MVP, +1000
Fade this pick. Rendon’s new teammate Mike Trout proves how difficult it can be to win an MVP even when you are the best player year in and year out. If the Angels make the playoffs, Rendon, Trout, Ohtani, and Andrelton Simmons will have had great years and that will split the vote. This is a guy who was criminally underrated for years and despite putting up three 6 win seasons, didn’t make his first All Star team until this year.
No, Stay Away
2020 MLB Season Batting Average, Over/Under 295.5, -110
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Rendon has had a batting average of .319, .308, and .301 over the past three seasons. He has spent his entire career in the National League and will be moving to the AL West. There could be an adjustment period since Rendon won’t be familiar with most of these guys but between his eliteness and video scouting, shouldn’t be a big deal. Statistically, there is nothing meaningfully different from the NL East to the AL West in terms of average K rate or anything else. Looking at Park Factors, the Nationals and Angels both play in parks conducive to offense.
Where Rendon really shines is looking at his Statcast profile. Rendon was in the top 1% in expected batting average (xBA) at .319 so it was absolutely not a fluke. His 2018 season was much of the same, with an xBA of .307 and in the top 2% of the league. Unless adjusting to a new league presents unforseen issues, Rendon’s quality of contact would indicate he should smash this number.
Pick – Over
Regular Season Home Runs, Over/Under 26.5, -110
Rendon hit 34 home runs this year with the super juiced ball after averaging in the mid 20s. If you think MLB is going to switch out the ball to dampen offense you may want to bet the under on most home run projections this year. For Rendon in particular, 27 would be the second highest number of his career. Steamer projects Rendon for 28 dingers so the numbers are pretty spot on. If you think Rendon will continue to be elite, the Over is the pick here. I think Rendon is going to be excellent this season but I would wait until spring training to see how the ball is playing for all Home Run bets.
Next. 6 MLB teams on the brink of collapse. dark
Pick – Wait and See
These guys are the first to have some of their proposition bets out since they are major free agents. As more props and other bets for players and teams come out, Call to The Pen will be on it to make sure you find the best value picks.