Cleveland Indians: What Trading for Francisco Lindor would look like

Cleveland Indians President of Baseball Operations, Chris Antonetti, says the team expects Francisco Lindor to remain an Indian…for now.  He would be an immediate upgrade to any team so what would it cost and who can pay the price?

Francisco Lindor is an incredible baseball player.  The star SS for the Cleveland Indians is two seasons from free agency and the Indians will unlikely be able to retain him at free-agent prices. Every MLB team knows this and has been calling the Indians about Lindor.  In an MLB.com interview, Antonetti made it known that teams are unsurprisingly interested and calling frequently about Lindor.

“I can’t control the conduct of other teams and them calling us with interest and wanting to explore things,” Antonetti continued. “As I’ve shared with you, we have a responsibility to be responsive to those teams when they engage with us.

Between those comments and owner Paul Dolan telling fans to “Enjoy Him,” it seems the consensus is Lindor will be traded.  So if its a matter of “when” as opposed to “if”, lets trade Lindor and see what teams could acquire him.  The cost will be painful but that is what happens when one of the best players in baseball is available.

As we have done in previous versions of this exercise, to trade Lindor, we have to approximate his value.  Outside of an ankle sprain in 2019, Lindor has been durable playing in 150 games over the past 3 seasons.  Spotrac estimates Lindor will take home $16.7M in arbitration this year.  We will estimate his final year of arbitration at $24M so in total we expect Lindor to make ~$41M for his remaining two years of control.

Steamer projects Lindor to be a 6 fWAR player this year where he will be one of top shortstops and players in all of baseball.  The 26-year-old topped out at 7.6 WAR in 2018 so while he could play to that level, acquiring teams aren’t going to pay for the 95 percentile outcome.  Throw in a 6.5 win season for his last year of control, Lindor’s total on-field value comes right in at $100M ($8M/WAR valuation).  Take out his salary and we get a surplus-value $60M which per FanGraphs’ research, puts just about any type of prospect or player on the table.

So what team has the need or the ability to pull off what would be a massive trade?

Dodgers

The Dodgers already made their interest in Indians’ ace Mike Clevinger known.  They have the bullets to acquire both players in one trade but that is against the Dodgers MO of collecting young talent as opposed to shedding them.  Even then, the Dodgers could make a compelling offer for Francisco Lindor with:

• INF Gavin Lux – 60 FV – $55M
• RHP Tony Gonsolin – 45+ FV – $6M

The Indians might prefer Dustin May as the centerpiece and that would shift the secondary pieces going back but this deal gives the Indians two MLB ready pieces.  The Indians would probably still want more for their star in the event Lux doesn’t hit his lofty future value.  Corey Seager would be displaced at SS but that doesn’t mean LA would just give him away.  Just for fun let’s make it a mega-deal where they acquire Francisco Lindor and Clevinger ($148M surplus value) that would cement the Dodgers as favorites:

• INF Gavin Lux – 60 FV – $55M
• RHP Dustin May – 60 FV – $64M
• 2B Jeter Downs – 50 FV – $28M

That would be a monstrous trade that usually gets reserved for fantasy leagues and MLB The Show.  The Dodgers would be pushing in some of their prospect capital to win a world series over the next two seasons and the Indians would get their young MLB ready replacements oozing with upside and another prospect who is probably a year away when the Indians would target their next competitive cycle.  The odds of this happening are low since the Cleveland Indians could diversify their return by dealing them separate.

Reds

The Reds fancy themselves as a contender after signing Mike Moustakas and having a strong rotation in Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, and Luis Castillo.  Mix in Joey Votto Eugenio Suarez, and Nick Senzel there is the making of a competitive team if things break right.  Francisco Lindor would have the biggest impact on a Reds team that is still a few pieces away from contention.

• 3B Jonathan India – 50 FV – $28M
• C Tyler Stephenson – 50 FV – $28M
• RHP Hunter Greene – 50 FV – $21M

Since the Reds don’t have a premium prospect to offer, they are going to make an offer with volume.  Greene is a bit of a wild card after undergoing Tommy John last April but is young and still has a ton of upside.  India and Stephenson are both first-round 23-year-olds who play valuable positions and have stroked so far in the minors.  The Cleveland Indians would likely ask for more flyers in the form of A ballers with talent or AAA performers sans tools but this could be revisited if the Reds are buyers at the deadline.

Twins

The Twins already locked up their SS in Jorge Polanco who broke out in the 2019 season.  But the Indians have been talking to superstar Josh Donaldson and are seeking impact.  If Donaldson signs elsewhere, the Twins could turn to the Lindor market.  Polanco’s 119 wRC+ and average SS defense will play at 3B or 2B.  The question is whether the Indians would trade Lindor in the division.  That being said, the Twins could offer packages like this:

• SS Royce Lewis – 65 FV – $62M

OR

• RF Alex Kirilloff – 50 FV – $28M OR RF Trevor Larnach – 50 FV – $28M
• RHP Brusdar Graterol – 50 FV – $21M
• 3B Keoni Cavaco – 45 FV – $8M OR Jhoan Duran – 50 FV – $21M

The preference for these deals comes down to your preference on risk.  You could put one slam dunk top prospect or a collection of high-risk prospects.  Lewis comes with all the tools to be a natural Francisco Lindor replacement but would the Twins be willing to part with him? Remains to be seen.  Deal two gives the Cleveland Indians an MLB ready pitcher, a solid RF prospect on a down year in Kirilloff or up year in Larnach, and a pick of two high fliers in Cavaco and Duran.