MLB Projections: Top 10 First Basemen in 2020
Today, we at ‘Call to the Pen’ are going to examine the top 10 first basemen in baseball using the “Steamer” MLB projections system.
First base happens to be one of those positions that has a slew of players, making this list one of the most difficult to compile. Thankfully, using the “Steamer” MLB projections system, half the battle is already done.
There are some key ommissions, however, that really pains me to see include Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds and Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox. My only guess is that “Steamer” is taking Votto’s decline last season and Abreu’s age – he’ll be 33 at the start of the 2020 season.
An argument can be made that either of the aforementioned players could have at the very least placed ahead of the #10 player on this list…
#10 – Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
Brandon Belt is a traditional first baseman in every sense. Though he doesn’t hit like a modern-day corner infielder, he remains a plus offensively. For his career, Belt is hitting .261 with a .801 OPS. He won’t lead the league in homers, but he’s a shoo-in for somewhere between 10-20 home runs each season.
Defensively, Belt is one of the top first basemen in all of baseball. His 4 DRS ranks fifth among first baseman with a minimum of 1000 innings at the position.
MLB Projections: Top 10 First Basemen in 2020
#9 – Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
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Carlos Santana is a 10-year veteran of the league and by far one of the best offensive first basemen in the game. An on-base machine, Santana is a prime example of what the modern-day first baseman looks like. For his career, Santana is hitting .250 with a .817 OPS. In any given season, he can easily smack 30+ homers.
Defensively, Santana is really quite average. In fact, for the 2019 season, he posted a -1 DRS, which places him 8th among first baseman with a minimum 1000 innings at the position. That’s right between Anthony Rizzo (3 DRS) and Rhys Hoskins (-2 DRS).
#8 – Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Last season, plenty of analysts an experts expected Max Muncy to experience something of a sophomore slump. After a breakout full season in 2018, many expected Muncy to have a down year and, in a sense, he did. It just wasn’t all that bad.
In all, Muncy hit .251 with an .889 OPS, which is down from a .973 OPS the year before. Despite this, Muncy still hit as many homers as he did in 2018 (35), while driving in 19 more runs (79 RBI vs 98 RBI).
What’s more, his versatility came in handy for the Dodgers as he was able to fill-in in the outfield and second base when needed.
#7 – Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Rhys Hoskins broke out in a big way in 2018, slashing .246 / .354 / .496 all the while hitting 34 HR with 96 RBI. Given that this was his sophomore season, things could only get better, right?
Well, not so much. In some areas, Hoskins showed vast improvements. He was more patient at the plate, leading the league in walks with 116 which resulted in an increased .364 OBP. In others, he got worse. He struck out a career-high 173x resulting in an even lower AVG of .226.
Defensively, Hoskins is slightly below average. He was a failed experiment in the outfield in 2018 and posted a -2 DRS back at first base last season.
It’s not all bad for Rhys, however. He’s still a valuable player in the league and at just 26-years-old, there is only upside. 2020 looks to be huge for Hoskins, which is why he ranks 7th on this list.
MLB Projections: Top 10 First Basemen in 2020
#6 – Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Pete Alonso had, arguably, the greatest break-out season of all time. One that will be hard to top, which is why he lands 6th on this list.
We project Alonso to have a slight dip this season and so does the “Steamer” MLB projections system. There are two reasons for that:
- players tend to experience a dip during their 2nd big-league season, and…
- how on earth can anyone replicate the type of performance from the previous year?
In 2019, Alonso hit .260 with a stellar .941 OPS. He set the rookie home run record set by Aaron Judge in 2017 by hitting 53 homers of his own. He also drove in 120 RBI.
Not too shabby, huh?
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#5 – Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Goldschmidt is one of the most understated players in the game. In nine big-league seasons, he’s slashed .291 / .391 / .524 while also flashing a decent glove. His 4 DRS ranks him 5th alongside Brandon Belt among first basemen that qualify.
Goldy is one of those rare players that will get on-base at around a .400 clip and hit 30 home runs each season. At the start of the 2020 MLB season, he will be 32 years of age, giving him a few more years of good production before a decline starts to set in.
#4 – Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
Matt Olson established himself last season as the best defensive first baseman in baseball. His 13 DRS was tops in all of baseball last season among first basemen that qualify. What’s more, he flashed a pretty good bat too.
In four big-league seasons, Olson has done nothing but improve with each season. So much so, that during the 2019 MLB season, he posted career highs in home runs with 36, RBi with 91, and AVG with .267.
MLB Projections: Top 10 First Basemen in 2020
#3 – Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
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Anthony Rizzo is one of those guys, like Goldschmidt, that is as consistent as they come. For his career, he slashes .267 / .373 / .488 all the while averaging 29 home runs and 98 RBI per season.
Rizzo has played for 9 years in MLB, and for the most part, he’s been the same players since his first full season 7 years ago. Since then, he’s hit 30 HR and driven in 100 RBI in a single season 4x.
What’s more, he’s a member of the 2016 World Series squad that ended the Cubs curse. He’s also one of the best defenders at first in the game. In fact, last season, he posted a 3 DRS, which ties him, CJ Cron, at 6th among qualified 1B.
#2 – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Freddie Freeman rounds up the list of understated first basemen. If you’re a die-hard baseball fan through and through, you know who he is. Otherwise, he’s the type of American athlete that gets little hype on major sports networks, which is unfortunate.
Freeman is a 10-year veteran of the league. He has 4 All-Star selections, a Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger award to his name. What’s more, he hits .293 with a .883 OPS for his career, hitting close to 30 HR and 100 RBI with regularity.
Many fans of the game will find Freeman’s ranking offensive, especially when they find out who’s next…
#1 – Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
For his career, Cody Bellinger‘s time in the outfield vs. first base is pretty even. For next season, however, the “Steamer” MLB projections system has him rated at first base.
What can I say about Bellinger that we don’t already know?
He established himself as a top 10 player last season who will hit 40 home runs and drive in 100 RBI games. Last season, he secured his first NL MVP award, adding to his award shelf which already includes a Gold Glove award, a Rookie of the Year award, a Silver Slugger award, and two All-Star selections.
Next. MLB Projections: Top 10 Big League Catchers in 2020. dark
All that’s left is pull through a World Series victory.