Phillies signal paying Luxury Tax for 2020’s playoffs

Recently, the Phillies indicated by free agents, pursued and signed, and general manager Matt Klentak’s reluctance to move salary for secondary pieces instead of difference-makers is revealing.

Detectivelike analysis:   

For many Philadelphia Phillies fans, lack of a stellar rotation is a season-ending debilitation and guarantees an also-ran campaign. But 2008’s five-man staff was an exception to the rule. To some, though, only the rule exists.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Fear is the foundation of all human limitations.” – Benny Urquidez

While many locals bemoan the lack of offseason transactions, they miss Klentak’s approach: quality, not quantity. In fact, he inked two of three known targets. But the miss would have increased payroll to roughly $4 million AAV (average annual value) over the $208 million limit with no indication to avoid July deals.

Sometimes, fans blame the pitching and/or hitting coaches when the stars slump or are struggling. But when the coach is irrelevant, the player then has good starts or has six hits in four games after 17 knocks in 40: Roman Quinn after a fired coach. And Zach Eflin was again enjoying the success of his first three months.

If they are atop the division or on a solid run in July, management will deal decent prospects –not Alec Bohm or Spencer Howard— for standouts to plug holes. But don’t expect the best players for a wild-card shot if the Fightins are a .500 squad.

In 2019, many locals overestimated the red pinstripes’ ability to win the division and are now envisioning only two starters and nothing else. However, ’20 is not an automatic duplicate of injuries and down second-half performances with an additional bat and arm. Plus the Phils’ upcoming 162 isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Even though Klentak could swap Jay Bruce and *Odubel Herrera to clear payroll space of $18.1 million AAV, their names didn’t surface in any reputable winter rumors. Yes, Bruce is a bargain as a bench bat and temporary fill-in, while moving Herrera would be selling low and not reestablishing his value in the first half. *DFA’d to test market

In December, the execs were likely offering a top-tier fireman $7 million, and their current $204.6 million AAV would increase to $211.6 million AAV and exceed the $208 million CBT (competitive-balance threshold) with a 20 percent penalty on $3.6 million. And July’s deals could increase the AAV by an additional $12-20 million.

Factors:       

Last summer, the Phillies pitching coach –an analytics-oriented rookie– fell in love like a hurler with a 95-mph fastball at the top of the strike zone. As a sinkerballer, though, Eflin wasn’t a fit. But, recently, Joe Girardi tabbed Bryan Price, who works with each individual differently; so expect better numbers.

Basically, Gabe Kapler had hired a hitting instructor favoring sabermetrics, and Charlie Manuel after replacing the fired coach increased run production by approximately a run a game. Plus Joe Dillon is another coach who uses an individualized approach that the dismissed instructor did not, so expect more offense.

Since a recent article, some fans continue to remind me about the Washington Nationals winning the Wild Card Game and the World Series because the Phils weren’t all-in at the deadline. Ergo, Klentak didn’t make a solid effort to give them a shot at a wild card, and the Nationals are proof of his inability to do the job.

While the division-leading Atlanta Braves and Washington were making deals, the red pinstripes only picked up marginal pitchers and bench pieces. True, they were only 1.5 games behind the Nats, but they were also 11-10 for July three days before month’s end. They were a .500 team!

Phillies vs. Nationals record after May 23:

• Ending May 23, Phillies: 29-21.
• Ending May 23, Nationals: 19-31.
• Ending June 30, Phillies: 44-40 (15-19)
• Ending June 30, Nationals: 42-41 (23-10).
• Ending 1st half, Phillies: 47-43 (18-22).
• Ending 1st half, Nationals: 47-42 (28-11).
• Ending July 29, Phillies: 55-50 (26-29).
• Ending July 29, Nationals: 57-49 (38-18).

No matter how you slice it: The Nationals played 20 games over .500 at 38-18. And they maintained their run without a noticeable interruption, while the Fightins were inspiring no one. In fact, many locals had given up on them in June, so why should the GM swap some decent prospects for a long shot?

Then and now:

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Although the Phillies haven’t exceeded the CBT, it doesn’t mean they won’t, but the players will determine the assistance provided by the execs. Translation: Give management a reason to spend $12-20 million AAV because winning is their goal.

During the offseason, the Fightins had already inked Wheeler and Gregorius, plus they were willing to surpass the Luxury Tax threshold in December for Betances. But they didn’t want to meet his asking price of $10 million: an overpay. However, they are willing to eat a $3-4 million tax to fill a fair-valued need with quality.

At the deadline, expect the red pinstripes to be in the hunt if they are healthy, and look for the higher-ups to make a move for the NL East crown by plugging glaring holes with quality pieces. Wild card-wise, they must show something before late July with .600 ball for the front office to sign off on dramatic spending.

To sum up, players now via a trade probably won’t happen, but some stars will be available in July. So, don’t expect secondary additions because the Phils will determine their next moves in July: Will it be a starter between Aaron Nola and Wheeler or a fireman to join Hector Neris and Seranthony Dominguez? Maybe, both!

If you have any questions or opinions regarding the Philadelphia Phillies, please open the comments section.