Atlanta Braves: Why Can’t Ozzie Albies Go Right?
By Ryan Sanders
Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies is one of the most talented young players in all of baseball. So why can’t one of the best young stars in MLB go to his right?
When you talk about the success of the Atlanta Braves, Ozzie Albies is quick to be mentioned in the same breath as guys like Ronald Acuña and Freddie Freeman. Albies just posted his best season yet, with .295/.352/.500 slash line (117 wRC+), +8 defensive runs saved, and 4.6 fWAR.
Albies is a fan favorite and one of the most valuable players in all of baseball. He does literally everything well you could expect a ballplayer to do. Everything except for one thing. With Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) statistic we see who the best and worst defenders are. Albies is quite the enigma with the glove. As noted he was worth +8 DRS yet he’s something completely different by OAA.
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Albies is worth -2 OAA with the glove which makes him a slightly below-average defender and lumps him in with other 2B like Ryan McMahon and Jurickson Profar. What separates Albies from other negative defenders are the huge disparities in how he gets to that number. On balls in front of him and behind him Albies is +1 and -1 respectively, nothing notable there.
The crazy part comes when you see the differences from his forehand and backhand. When Albies goes to his left, he is worth an incredible +8 OAA which is fourth-best in baseball among all position players. Only Rafael Devers, Paul Dejong, and Nolan Arenado are better going left. It all changes though when Albies has to range up the middle where he is the worst defender in baseball at a stunning -10 OAA. So how can a player like Albies be Francisco Lindor to his left and Marcus Semien to his right?
Let’s start by looking at Albies’ positioning at the keystone. When you look at Ozzie Albies starting points, the Atlanta Braves seem to be aware of Albies problems going to the backhand because they heavily shade him up the middle. You can see on that chart that Albies biggest negatives come when he plays a more traditional 2B or is starting deep in the grass. Another data point is that whenever Albies is shifted to the SS side he is negative at each starting point, most notably -3.1 OAA when shifted for a RHH pull hitter. It would seem that Albies can get to a lot of balls but can’t always convert them to outs because of his arm.
Looking at Ending Points, you can see more evidence of his arm being detrimental. There are areas where Albies has positive value going to his right, but those areas are closer to 2B where he has his momentum already moving forward. On plays that would be a true backhand or plays where he finishes on the SS side of second, is where he racks up so much negative value.
This is backed up by the Fan Scouting Report where Albies was graded as having an incredible first step but an average arm. In other words, he can get to as many balls as a SS could but he can’t make as many throws especially against faster runners.
This last analysis is much more subjective using the eye test. When you watch the video below, the plays Albies makes going to the backhand look visually impressive. Look closer at who is running you see that a majority of the runners are larger corner types who aren’t known for their speed. Albies is still one of the best players in baseball but his arm is holding his defense back. If you gave Albies an arm like Andrelton Simmons, he would go from being great to challenging Javier Baez for the crown of best fielder.
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Ozzie Albies remains an incredible player for the Atlanta Braves despite his shortcomings going right. If the Braves and Allies could figure out a way to improve his arm strength to convert more backhand plays, the already excellent Albies could make a case that he is the best 2B and players in all of baseball.