MLB Hall of Fame: Larry Walker’s fading hopes

Larry Walker is currently at 85% of the vote to be enshrined in the MLB Hall of Fame, but the math moving forward is not favorable.

Less than 48 hours before announcement of the honorees, Larry Walker’s MLB Hall of Fame candidacy is alive. Based on results revealed to date by the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, Walker’s has gained 85.3 percent of the vote among the 170 ballots made public to date.

Looking forward to Tuesday, however the math isn’t as favorable fans of Walker, who is in his 10th and final season on the ballot. While there has been an obvious and measurable last-season push for him, it now appears that he will ultimately fall short of the 75 percent support required for enshrinement.

In his ninth year on the ballot in 2019, Walker got the votes of 54.5 percent of the 425 electors, about 95 short of the required number. He gained 67 votes from the 2018 election – making his the most ascendant candidacy – but with 232 actual votes he still fell 87 short of the 319 needed for election.

The precise number he needs this year obviously won’t be known until all the votes are in, but assuming he again needs 319, there is very little chance of him actually getting there.

Here’s how the math works out on Walker’s candidacy.

Of the 170 ballots made public to date, Walker has 145 votes. Importantly, given the number of votes Walker must pick up, it’s worth noting that 48 people who did not vote for Walker last year have made their ballots public, and 23 of them – 48 percent – have moved to his cause.

Beyond that seven voters not involved in last year’s election have made their ballots public, and six went for Walker.

The problem for Walker lies among the remaining 190 likely voters who have not yet declared. Their ranks include about 150 who did vote last year, only 58 of whom voted for Walker. Assuming all 58 vote for him again, that still leaves him with just 203 votes, about 115 short of election.

Another 92 2019 voters did not support Walker’s candidacy. If he converts them at his present 48 percent rate, he’ll add 44 more votes, bringing his total to 247.

That leaves as-yet uncounted first-time voters to get Walker from 247 to 319. The problem is that there be at most a few dozen of those, and certainly not the nearly 70 he would need to deliver him unanimous support.

This fact also complicates Larry Walker’s hopes. In MLB Hall of Fame voting, it’s common for candidates to lose support between the pre-released and post-released ballots. Last year, of the 22 candidates who got measurable support, only Mariano Rivera – a unanimous selection – maintained his percentage backing. The average loss was seven percent and Walker – whose backing fell by 31 percent – was the biggest loser.