Phillies: Rotation surprises in 2020, 2008, 1980
By Tal Venada
Mid-rotation arms:
For the Phillies, both championship squads had lower-rung hurlers putting up two-slot stats. But, basically, a three’s numbers are a 3.70 to 3.99 ERA despite some organizations having three studs; plus Nola, Wheeler and Eflin are not automatic defeats against divisional rivals in head-to-head battles. Yes, even Eflin!
Phillies three-slot starters:
- 1980: Lerch, 25: 30 Gms. (8 relief), 150 Inn., 4-14, a 5.16 ERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.55 WHIP.
- 2008: Kendrick, 23: 31 Gms. (1 relief), 155 2/3 Inn., 11-9, a 5.49 ERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.61 WHIP.
- 2019: Eflin, 25.5: 32 Gms. (4 relief), 163 1/3 Inn., 10-13, a 4.13 ERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.
On 1980’s club, southpaw Lerch went 4-14 with a 5.16 ERA after two prior summers with a 3.96 ERA and a 3.74 ERA respectively. But he had followed consecutive mid-rotation campaigns with a dreadful ‘.80, and the Fightins moved him to 1981’s Montreal Expos. Unfortunately, he never had the results of 1978 and 1979 again.
After going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 2007, sophomore Kendrick resisted expanding his repertoire: the pitching coach’s request. Ergo, a 5.49 ERA resulted in losing his spot to Blanton. And because “Big Joe” had worked like a four after the swap, a late July pickup made an huge difference.
Would it be a surprise if Eflin pitched more like a two instead of a three or four? Not at all! Realistically, he had a rookie pitching coach who wanted the sinkerballer to fire some high four-seam fastballs, and the result was predictable except to an analytics devotee.
Excluding those four influenced starts and his relief appearances, Eflin went 11-10 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 opportunities. In fact, he lasted six frames or more 14 times, and eight of those were for at least seven innings. Plus he fired 145 frames in those 24 contests for a 6.04 innings average. No, I wouldn’t bet against him!