Phillies: Rotation surprises in 2020, 2008, 1980

If Phillies teams with holes won championships, a casual observer could conclude adding two difference-making pieces means something, but the faithful blame general manager Matt Klentak for an imperfect roster.

Reality vs. memory:   

Instead of anticipating truck day, many Philadelphia Phillies fans view 2020 with dread because a “real” GM would assemble an active 25 with but a few blemishes. Yes, a starting staff should be –at least– equal to their divisional rivals and give the red pinstripes a fighting chance. Three studs?

IN OTHER WORDS: “Comparison is the death of joy.” – Mark Twain

No amount of logic can penetrate the defeatist attitudes of many locals, who believe the competition has the upper hand based also on 2019. But if the Fightins pile up enough victories in the second half to compete for the divisional pennant, will these doubting Thomases be bandwagon jumpers or fair-weather fans?

Remembering squads from 1980 and 2008, do you glorify the rotations of Paul Owens and/or Pat Gillick? Or are there some dents in your memory’s armor needing a light to reveal them? If so, a few surprises await those who believe 2020’s starting staff is inferior and can’t even earn a wild-card berth.

Besides Steve Carlton, whom from 1980’s rotation do you recall? If you were around in April of ’80, the names Larry Christenson and Dick Ruthven will be familiar. But who opened the season in the other two slots off the top of your head?

Although ’08 is memorable to many fanatics, which hurlers do you remember besides Cole Hamels? Perhaps, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer are unforgettable from April’s rotation, and the other two you don’t recall, no? They escape your memory because those two rungs of the starting staff aren’t significant enough.

While many locals are unhappy with the front four of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin and Jake Arrieta, they also bemoan the possibility of Vince Velasquez in the rotation. And some even think he can’t work more than three innings and want him to be the closer, but he’d have to earn even a seventh-frame setup role.

Instead of beginning at the top, let’s start at the bottom rung and see how 2020’s moundsmen compare to the fives of the 1980 and 2008 clubs. And since those were franchise champions, they must have had pitchers outshining Eflin and Arrieta. Yes, some believe those two should slot fifth.

Bottom rung:         

Even though many Phillies fans expect a mid-rotation piece in the five slot, organizations –if they’re lucky– have an innings eater. Ergo, an 18-out pitcher with a 4.50 ERA is ideal, but many contending teams don’t have that luxury. How about Owens and Gillick?

Phillies five-slot starters:

• 1980: Walk, 23: 27 Gms., 151 2/3 Inn., 11-7, a 4.57 ERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.54 WHIP.
• 2008:
• Eaton, 30: 21 Gms. (2 relief), 107 Inn., 4-8, a 5.80 ERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.64 WHIP.
  Blanton, 28: 33 Gms., 197 2/3 Inn., 9-12, a 4.69 ERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.40 WHIP.
• 2019:
• Velasquez, 27.5: 33 Gms. (10 relief), 117 1/3 Inn., 7-8, a 4.91 ERA, a 0.6 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
  *Suarez 24.5: 27 Gms., 39 Inn., a 3.69 ERA, 3 Holds, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.36 WHIP.
  *All relief appearances.

As you can see by Walk’s numbers, he delivered 150 frames with a  4.57 ERA. Plus Owens rookie also worked into the eighth inning of Game 1 of the 1980 World Series and got the champs off to a triumphant start after the NLCS against the Houston Astros included five compelling battles.

For the 2008 champs, Gillick began with Eaton as the fifth hurler. And he went 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA: his lowest ERA for two summers with the red pinstripes. In late July, though, Joe Blanton had replaced Eaton and went 4-0 in 13 starts with a 4.02 ERA for 70 2/3 innings.

Starting-wise, Velasquez was 6-7 with a 4.96 ERA, and he worked five frames or more 13 times. But he recorded at least one sixth-inning out in five opportunities; however, Gabe Kapler had a quick hook at trouble’s first sign. That stated, he had longer appearances in 2018 because Kapler wasn’t under playoff-making pressure.

While the faithful clamor for Velasquez to be a reliever, left-hander Ranger Suarez may get another look this March because he only had six poor showings out of 37: His 83.3 percent rate was excellent. And being a portsider may be an advantage on an otherwise right-handed starting staff.

Fourth slot:     

Currently, many locals consider the Phillies as lacking legitimate three and-fourth-rung starters, but the basic four-spot hurler is an innings eater with a 4.00 to 4.25 ERA. And a dependable four keeps his team in the game: a range behind or ahead by two runs.

Phillies four-slot starters:

• 1980: Ruthven, 29: 33 Gms., 223 1/3  Inn., 17-10, a 3.55 ERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
• 2008: Moyer, 45: 33 Gms., 196 1/3 Inn., 16-7, a 3.71 ERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
• 2019: Arrieta, almost 34: 31 Gms., 135 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 4.64 ERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.47 WHIP.

With Christenson’s injury, Ruthven, mostly a four-slot arm, rose to the occasion with the form he had demonstrated in 1978 after his acquisition from the Atlanta Braves. Realistically, he wasn’t the same pitcher every 162, but many major leaguers fall into this category.

After seven of eight campaigns through 2003 with a 3.98 ERA or much lower, Moyer’s 3.71 ERA was his only one under a 4.28 ERA or higher for his next eight years. Translation: He earned his ring and took the rubber for good measure. So, never count out a man if he can smell that championship.

Many of the Philadelphia faithful have little confidence in Arrieta, but he toiled with bone spurs and matched a healthy Walk’s numbers. However, he was 5-6 with a 4.12 ERA before revealing the injury in his next outing, but many fans strictly base performance expectations on a player’s income.

While a player tends to elevate his game in his walk year, Arrieta might just do that if he can stay healthy. But did he have just two injury-affecting 162s, or is his body finally succumbing to the mileage leading to a balky knee in ’18 and bone spurs in ’19? Will he be healthy in June?

Mid-rotation arms:         

For the Phillies, both championship squads had lower-rung hurlers putting up two-slot stats. But, basically, a three’s numbers are a 3.70 to 3.99 ERA despite some organizations having three studs; plus Nola, Wheeler and Eflin are not automatic defeats against divisional rivals in head-to-head battles. Yes, even Eflin!

Phillies three-slot starters:

• 1980: Lerch, 25: 30 Gms. (8 relief), 150 Inn., 4-14, a 5.16 ERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.55 WHIP.
• 2008: Kendrick, 23: 31 Gms. (1 relief), 155 2/3 Inn., 11-9, a 5.49 ERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.61 WHIP.
• 2019: Eflin, 25.5: 32 Gms. (4 relief), 163 1/3 Inn., 10-13, a 4.13 ERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.

On 1980’s club, southpaw Lerch went 4-14 with a 5.16 ERA after two prior summers with a 3.96 ERA and a 3.74 ERA respectively. But he had followed consecutive mid-rotation campaigns with a dreadful ‘.80, and the Fightins moved him to 1981’s Montreal Expos. Unfortunately, he never had the results of 1978 and 1979 again.

After going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 2007, sophomore Kendrick resisted expanding his repertoire: the pitching coach’s request. Ergo, a 5.49 ERA resulted in losing his spot to Blanton. And because “Big Joe” had worked like a four after the swap, a late July pickup made an huge difference.

Would it be a surprise if Eflin pitched more like a two instead of a three or four? Not at all! Realistically, he had a rookie pitching coach who wanted the sinkerballer to fire some high four-seam fastballs, and the result was predictable except to an analytics devotee.

Excluding those four influenced starts and his relief appearances, Eflin went 11-10 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 opportunities. In fact, he lasted six frames or more 14 times, and eight of those were for at least seven innings. Plus he fired 145 frames in those 24 contests for a 6.04 innings average. No, I wouldn’t bet against him!

Second-slot moundsmen:       

In Phillies championship history, their number-two hurlers have suffered injury or ineffectiveness. Basically, a second-slot arm has a 3.25 to 3.60 ERA, and the red pinstripes were fortunate with lower-slotted pieces having a high-caliber season when counted-on veterans struggled.

Phillies two-slot starters:

• 1980:
• Christenson, 26: 14 Gms., 73 2/3 Inn., 5-1, a 4.03 ERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
  Espinosa, 26.5: 12 Gms., 76 1/3 Inn., 3-5, a 3.77 ERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.69 WHIP.
• Bystrom, 22: 6 Gms. (1 relief), 36 Inn., 5-0, a 1.50 ERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
• 2008: Myers, 27: 30 Gms., 190 Inn., 10-13, a 4.55 ERA, a 2.1 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
• 2019: Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

In three out of five years, Christenson had recorded a 3.68 ERA or lower with a 3.24 ERA in 1978 after going 19-6 in 1977, but he missed most of 1980 because of elbow surgery. He, though, returned in August for eight starts: 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA for 48 frames.

While only pitching for two months during an injury-plagued 162, Espinosa went 3-5 with a 3.77 ERA. But Bystrom, a September call-up, replaced the injured starter with a 5-0 record and a 1.50 ERA. However, the rookie had a 4.26 career ERA because he was above the 4.00 ERA mark from 1982 on.

Entering ’08, Myers’ stats had resembled a three-slot hurler, but he then had a 162 with opposite halves separated by a month in the minors with his required approval. In the first half, he had produced a dreadful 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA, but he earned his way back to the Show. And he then went 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA.

On the surface, Wheeler was the first choice of many franchises, and he had thrived in the second halves of 2018 and 2019. He went 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA last summer after logging a 7-1 mark with a 1.68 ERA in ’18. Translation: He could be a postseason asset so don’t write him off by April’s end.

Overall, the flamethrower was 23-15 with a 3.65 ERA for his last two campaigns, and many front-office types expect him to elevate his game to the top tier. Plus the Fightins opted for a successful front-of-the-rotation arm with the upside to dominate. Additionally, a newcomer  wants to prove himself to fans and teammates.

Head of the rotation:     

With a 3.20 ERA or lower, the stud atop the starting staff will set the tone for the other four Phillies and shoulder the pressure to win. Plus Wheeler’s addition and Eflin’s potential breakout will lighten Nola’s stress and generate his competitive juices performance-wise. A dominate Nola again?

Phillies aces:

• 1980: Carlton, 35: 38 Gms., 304 Inn., 24-9, a 2.34 ERA, an 8.8 fWAR and a 1.10 WHIP.
• 2008: Hamels, 24: 33 Gms., 227 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.09 ERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
• 2019: Nola, 26.5: 34 Gms., 202 1/3 Inn., 12-7, a 3.87 ERA, a 3.4 fWAR and a 1.27 WHIP.

Due to his physical-routine dedication, Carlton, 35, went 24-9 with a 2.34 ERA for 303 innings.  Yes, Lefty mowed down the opposition with fastballs and sliders. And he even intimated them in 1972 with a 27-10 record and a 1.97 ERA for the 59-victory Fightins. Also, his teammates loved his “win day” starts including 15 straight Ws.

In his third season, Hamels was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA before his dominating performances in the NLCS and the Fall Classic. And he even tossed his only no-hitter for his final outing in a Phillies uniform. For ’20, many of the faithful weren’t happy his return didn’t happen.

After Nola had finished third for the NL’s 2018 Cy Young Award, national publications expected some regression. But he had rough patches to begin and end the next 162. However, he still managed to fire at least 6 1/3 innings 16 times, and 10 were seven frames or more. Plus he’s due for a bounce-back summer.

If you total his last two campaigns, he went 29-13 with a 3.10 ERA. Additionally, his stats for 2017 and 2019 were similar and unlike 2018. Nola, though, in 2020 has a better-than-average shot of improving to 15 victories or more with a 2.99 ERA or lower.

Comparison:

While Phillies rookie Walk was an innings-eating five compared to the disastrous Eaton, Velasquez could provide a similar 150 frames except with a 4.20 ERA if Bryan Price works closely with him. But Suarez or Nick Pivetta could challenge for the open spot.

In 1980 and 2008, Ruthven and Moyer began their seasons as four-slot arms. However, their final numbers were like a two and three respectively, and Arrieta could finish ’20 in a similar fashion. Plus it shows how unpredictable anticipated outcomes are.

Unfortunately, Lerch in ’80 and Kendrick in ’08 came off two summers and a rookie campaign respectively with mid-rotation stats. But they recorded over 5.00 ERAs in those 162s and pitched more like Eaton than Velasquez. Meanwhile, Eflin still had a 4.13 ERA despite a rookie analytics-oriented coach.

In 1980, Christenson, the two-slot hurler, was only effective after returning late in the season. Plus Espinosa and rookie Bystrom made unexpected contributions no one had foreseen especially in January. Currently, Wheeler will slot behind Nola to form a one-two punch.

While Nola’s potential is ahead of him, he is behind Carlton and Hamels, but he has outperformed the initial estimates of being a three or maybe a two. Perhaps, the years after the four aces have distorted fans’ expectations for a five-man staff due to a once-in-a-lifetime advantage.

Blaming Klentak despite a more traditional rotation, some fans have stated he should have plugged every shortcoming by mid-December or sooner. But what adjective would Owens and Gillick use for these expectations instead of reasonable? Impossible!