Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon is DJ LeMahieu 2.0

All the attention in Colorado has been on Nolan Arenado trade rumors and his discontent.  You should shift your attention to Ryan McMahon.

The Rockies lost DJ LeMahieu to free agency which opened up a hole at major hole 2B. LeMahieu had been a solid player for the Rockies. It took a few seasons for him to figure it out, but he totaled 10.4 WAR from 2014-2018 including a 4.4 win season in 2016.

Exit LeMahieu and enter Ryan McMahon. A former prospect who hasn’t quite hit his stride at the MLB level.  McMahon has totaled 0.6 fWAR in his career and has hit an abysmal .243/.323/.424 which translates to a 81 wRC+ despite playing half his games in Colorado. One bright spot for McMahon has been on defense where he has been +6 Defensive Runs Saved primarily 2B but also playing over 110 innings at 1B and 3B.

So that’s what McMahon has been but we are more interested in what he can be moving forward. There is superstar upside that could show up as soon as this season. Start by looking at his Statcast profile and you’ll see that McMahon hits the ball incredibly hard with an average exit velocity of 91.4 MPH which is in the top 10% of the league and 32nd overall. For context, McMahon hits the ball as hard as fellow lefties Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.

So what gives? McMahon, like so many other hitters, puts the ball on the ground way too much. Last season, McMahon hit the ball on the ground 51% of the time which was the tenth highest mark in all of baseball. Despite his elite exit velocity, McMahon hits grounders like Mallex Smith or Jose Iglesias. McMahon isn’t a standard dead pull lefty either as his PULL/CENT/OPPO split is 34%/38%/28%.  Still, teams can easily defend him by shading the 2B into shallow RF and the SS up the middle.

Despite his tendencies, McMahon sent the ball over the fence 24 times. For a hitter who strikes out nearly 30% of the time, it is critical for McMahon to maximize damage when he does make contact. He actually has a great eye for the zone as his out-of-zone swing % is top 45 in baseball at 29%. His in-zone swing % is even better at 77% which is top 20 in baseball.

McMahon is in need of a swing change like so many hitters before him. He has elite power but it is being dampened like it was for J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, and so many others. If McMahon reduced his GB rate to a league average rate and put the ball in the air more, he could hit 40-45 home runs. His total offensive stats would settle in above average. With his plus defense across the infield, McMahon being a 4-5 win player would be realistic. He’ll never be LeMahieu with the glove, but McMahon has a chance to be an under the radar talent that makes impact on offense and defense.

Colorado remains one of the more confusing organizations in baseball.  They have a ton of talent like Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon. McMahon is entering his fourth year of team control yet hasn’t had a major impact even though he has all the tools necessary to be a star. McMahon has every capability to be DJ LeMahieu 2.0. It remains to be seen whether the Rockies can fix him or if a change of scenery is what he needs. A team that needs a 2B, 1B, or utility type should roll the dice for four years of McMahon and see if he can reach his true talent level.

Ryan McMahon is one small tweak away from rounding the bases for the Colorado Rockies like another famous McMahon.