MLB free agency: Landing spots for Kevin Pillar
In an offseason chock full of scandal, mega-deals, and trade rumors, there are still impact outfielders left. None are more well-rounded than Kevin Pillar.
31-year old centerfielder Kevin Pillar received a rude farewell from the San Francisco Giants earlier this offseason. Pillar, the team’s leader in plate appearances, home runs (a tie), and steals was non-tendered after making only $5.8 million in 2019. MLBTR projected the 2015 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year to make nearly $10 million in his final year of arbitration.
Pillar, in his first season outside of Toronto, thrived in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park on the Bay, finishing up the season with a career-high in home runs (21), runs (82), RBI (87), and SLG (.442).
Despite the offensive success, Fangraphs rated his defense as less than stellar. His UZR sagged below 2.3 for the first time since he made his debut back in 2014; he finished the 2019 campaign with a 0.3 UZR, making him the 27th-best outfielder by that metric. Comparing that ranking to his 22nd overall finish in 2018, and 15th overall finish in 2017, and a noticeable downward trend on the defensive end may be materializing.
Even if his centerfield defense is taking a hit, that seems like it could be an easy fix. While putting up a -1.6 UZR/150 in over 1,000 innings in centerfield in 2019 with the Giants, Pillar racked up a 5.4 UZR/150 in his 222 innings in right field. If transitioning to right field lies in Pillar’s near future, that may be limiting his market, but a 20-homer, 15 steals right-handed bat should not still be on the market in mid-January.
Balancing his career year at the plate and his worst defensive season in centerfield may help explain why teams have been reluctant to pick him up this offseason. Even so, there is no way Pillar goes into February without a team.
Based on current rumors surrounding the rest of the outfield market and current roster constructions, here are the three teams that are most likely to add Kevin Pillar in the coming weeks.
Philadelphia Phillies
One of the clearest fits for Kevin Pillar is in Philadephia. The Phillies, fresh off of adding Zach Wheeler to the starting rotation, recently cut Odubel Herrera. Without Herrera, who had been suspended due to a domestic violence case in 2019, the Phillies still have Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen roaming the outfield.
The pair of former MVPs are still big-time hitters, but neither have the defensive skill to man center field. Even if Pillar’s defense has taken a slight step back, Pillar would provide an upgrade for the Phils in the middle of their outfield. Fangraphs (Roster Resource) has the Phillies starting Adam Haseley, their 23-year old eighth-overall pick from the 2017 draft.
Haseley struggled to provide power from the left side of the plate during his 67-game cup of coffee with Philadelphia last season, slugging below .400 and finishing with just 5 home runs in 242 at-bats. Haseley also struck out almost 25% of the time, which is fairly consistent with his numbers in the minor leagues.
Pillar strikes out less than 15% of the time, while providing similar speed and centerfield defense to Haseley. If the Phillies truly want to win now, signing Pillar, even to a one-year deal could prove beneficial. Pillar and Haseley could platoon and take turns spelling McCutchen and Harper on their days off.
Roman Quinn, the current backup outfielder for the Phillies, is not an MLB-ready talent as of yet. Over the last 94 games he’s spent in the majors (over two seasons), Quinn managed to pop only six home runs, though he did steal 18 bases in that time. Even if Quinn (a switch hitter) stays on the roster, he and Haseley can work as bench bats and as starters against especially tough right-handed pitchers.
The Phillies will need a complete lineup to take on the starting rotations of the New York Mets, Washington Nationals, and the Atlanta Braves, and signing Kevin Pillar could help fill any remaining gaps.
Detriot Tigers
Certainly not a team built for 2020, the Tigers have added established major leaguers C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop this offseason despite working through a rebuilding phase. Cron, 30, and Schoop, 28, both are young enough to factor into any emerging Tigers team over the next couple of seasons.
At 31, Kevin Pillar fits into that group nicely. Like these two free-agent infielders, Pillar can hit the long ball from the right side of the plate and he has some significant veteran experience in a postseason lockerroom from his time in Toronto.
Currently, MLBTR has connected Detriot to players like Yasiel Puig, who is two years younger than Pillar and puts up similar numbers. Puig collected 24 homers, 19 steals, and a .458 SLG last season compared to Pillar’s 21 home runs, 14 steals, and .442 SLG from 2019. Puig’s arm in right field is well-documented, and his postseason successes with the Dodgers fill plenty of LA fans’ memories, but the ‘Wild Horse’ is known to bring uncertainty into clubhouses, something that is not attached to Pillar.
If the Tigers are looking for a steady middle of the order outfield bat to pair with C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Pillar may provide more stability than Puig. Plus, he’ll likely have a significantly lower price tag than the former All-Star.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are another team that is not likely to compete in 2020, but like the Tigers, Seattle still needs to field a competent major league product, and if things break right, they could put reasonably build momentum headed into 2021.
Currently, rumors surrounding the M’s involve dealing their star right fielder Mitch Haniger. The former All-Star had a down year thanks to a gruesome testicular injury last season. He finished with a triple-slash line of .220/.314/.463 in 63 games. He ended up with 15 home runs and four steals, better per-game marks than he’d had in either of the previous two seasons.
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If Haniger is dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks as MLBTR reported back in December, then the Mariners will need to replace some of that production. The Giants used Kevin Pillar as a middle of the order bat last season, and he flourished. Pillar could realistically replace Haniger while allowing Jerry DiPoto and the M’s to shed salary while adding prospects.
Pillar actually could prove even more valuable than Haniger to the Mariners. Pillar does not have the injury track record of Haniger, as he’s played in 142 games or more in each of the last five seasons. Haniger has been a full-time big leaguer for only the last three seasons, and he’s played in fewer than 100 games in two of those three.
On top of that, Pillar actually has a deeper and stronger track record. Only two years older than Haniger, he’s played in 501 more games. Pillar has five seasons with 14+ steals while Haniger has never reached double digits. Realistically, Haniger’s value is all stemming from his All-star campaign in 2018, which saw the former-D’back hit .286/.366/.493 with 26 home runs and eight steals. Certainly, those numbers are solid, and he played in 157 games that season, too. But this feels a lot more like a flash in the pan than what Pillar has done over a much larger sample size.
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If DiPoto can get enough for Haniger, he should deal him away and take on the underrated Kevin Pillar, even on a one-year ‘prove-it’ deal.