Chicago Cubs: the land of misfit toys

The loss of Castellanos crystallizes the 2020 Chicago Cubs dependence on under-performers

The effective loss of Nick Castellanos, who signed Monday with the Cincinnati Reds, hardly came as a surprise to fans of the Chicago Cubs. But it did drive home the point that the team’s 2020 hopes will be pinned on a coterie of heretofore under-performers.

Castellanos batted .321 in 51 games after being acquired in a deadline deal with Detroit. But the Cubs, who have found themselves right up against the luxury tax threshold all off-season, never engaged in a serious pursuit to re-sign the right fielder.

Beyond that, the team has made no off-season additions likely to shake up the regular order.

In fact, the 2020 starting lineup projects to be the same as the one that went 84-78 and for the first time since 2014 failed to reach post-season play save for the losses of Castellanos and infielder Addison Russell. Russell was released after a disappointing 2019 that came on the heels of his domestic abuse suspension to start the season.

The Cubs also lost utility stalwart Ben Zobrist and rotation starter Cole Hamels.

The only additions of any consequence have occurred at the margins. The Cubs purchased pitcher Jharel Cotton from the Oakland Athletics, and are reported to have agreed to terms with outfielder Steven Souza, formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Neither of those moves is seen as re-shaping the team. Cotton spent all of 2019 in the A’s minor league system, being used mostly in relief. Over parts of two big-league seasons he has a career 11-10 record with a 4.95 ERA.

A five-year veteran, Souza played in just 72 games last season or Arizona, hitting .220. He is a career .233 batter.

This all means that for the Chicago Cubs to contend in 2020, they must rely on a group of players already on the major league roster, largely but not wholly home-grown. Collectively that group begins to resemble the land of misfit toys, acquisitions that have never seemed to live up to the potential envisioned for each and all of them.

And it has to be more than one or two of those guys coming through. For better or for worse, the Cubs’ short-term fortunes appear to be married to something approaching a six-way developmental parley.

Chicago Cubs: The Land of Misfit Toys

Jason Heyward

The loss of Castellanos means Heyward moves back to right field on a more or less permanent basis. More on that “permanent” status in a moment. Heyward is in the fourth season of a seven-year deal, so he’s playing somewhere.

When Castellanos arrived last August, Heyward largely shifted to center field, eventually putting in 74 starts there atop his 63 starts in right. He can play either, but unless one projects Souza as a right-field option the Chicago  Cubs have nobody else.

The Cub can also gamble that 2019 was a freakishly bad season for Heyward facing left-handers. In his three previous seasons on the North Side, he compiled a .250 average against left-handers, peaking at .290 in 2018.

The Cubs’ willingness to look at Souza as a platoon option flows from Heyward’s 2019 challenges coping with left-handed pitching. He batted .264 against right-handed pitchers, but just .205 against left-handers. His power numbers also suffered.

From either side, the inescapable reality is that the Cubs need Heyward to deliver value commensurate with the $21 million he’s making. Since coming to Chicago, his career batting average has fallen by 16 points; he’s also lost 21 points off his on-base average and 47 points off his slugging average.

Without Castellanos, the Cubs need Heyward to be the offensive threat he was before coming to Chicago.

Chicago Cubs: The Land of Misfit Toys

Albert Almora and/or Ian Happ

Happ and Almora emerged almost simultaneously from the Chicago Cubs farm systems, and it’s a reasonable assertion that in their competition for playing time both have stunted the other’s development.

The sixth overall pick in 2012, Almora debuted in 2016 as a flashy, defensive-oriented center fielder with offensive potential. The defense has been there, but Almora has failed to grow either at bat or on the basepaths. He has become a misfit.

Following .298 and .286 showings in two-thirds time duty in 2017 and 2018, he slumped to just .236 last season, eventually giving way to Heyward when Castellanos arrived.

The loss of Castellanos and the relocation of Heyward back to right field does open up center to somebody in 2020, but who that somebody will be is not clear. When Almora slumped last season, the Cubs recalled Happ and he batted .264 in 58 games, adding 11 home runs.

But Happ is nobody’s model center fielder. He is more of a Zobrist type, having split time at six positions last season. Except he hasn’t produced Zobrist’s offensive reliability, making him another misfit.

For that reason, the Cubs front office has a love-hate relationship with Happ. The team’s first round (ninth overall) selection in 2015, he debuted less than two years later, and was the opening day centerfielder ahead of Almora in 2018.

But he batted only .233 that season, and when spring training went badly last year the Cubs demoted Happ to Triple A Iowa, where he marinated into late July.

In short, the center field situation is a contest between a pair of misfit former No. 1 draft choices, neither of which has established that he can hit above .250.

Chicago Cubs: The Land of Misfit Toys

Ian Happ and/or David Bote

Happ is also a candidate to fill the second base vacancy created by Russell’s departure. He has logged 37 starts at the position.

But the Chicago Cubs have other options at second, notably, David Bote, whose claim to fame to this point is the ninth-inning grand slam he hit in 2018 to beat the Washington Nationals.

Like Almora and Happ, Bote https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boteda01.shtml is a system product. An 18th round draft choice, he debuted in 2018, and before long got a big career endorsement. The Cubs signed Bote last spring to a contract that buys up his arbitration seasons, in return for which he stands to make more than $28 million through 2026.

It was an especially odd move for the team to make given two factors.

1. Bote’s natural position is third base, a spot held by Kris Bryant.
2. Aside from the grand slam, Bote hadn’t done a lot to justify the team’s faith in him.

He still hasn’t. Across 201 games in two seasons, he is a .251 hitter with 17 homers and a 99 OPS+, marking him as yet another misfit. Yet as the Cubs prepare to pack for spring training the team’s depth chart projects him as a strong candidate for playing time at second.

Chicago Cubs: The Land of Misfit Toys

David Bote and/or Ian Happ and/or Nico Hoerner

The other option for Bote is to move him to third base, the likely outgrowth of any trade that ships Bryant out of town. If that happens, the Chicago Cubs will become reliant on the emergence of rookie Nico Hoerner at second.

Hoerner, who will be 22 on opening day, was the 24th overall pick in the 2018 draft. Called up in early September when an injury sidelined Russell, he made a big early impression. In 20 games he batted .282 with three home runs.

That showing included a three-hit debut against the Padres Sept. 9 and an 11-for-29 first week. The rest of Hoerner’s experience, however, did not go as well.  In seven pressure-packed games with St. Louis down the stretch, Hoerner batted just .214 with just one extra-base hit. The Cubs, by the way, lost all seven and fell out of the post-season picture.

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Given his youth, his inexperience and the fact that his minor league career ended at Double-A, it’s no given thing that Hoerner is ready for full-time duty at second. That presumably will be determined in spring training.

Atop the loss of Castellanos, trading Bryant then could leave new manager David Ross dependent on a lineup featuring three former No. 1 draft picks, none of whom has yet blossomed. He would be penciling in the unproven Bote at third, the unproven Hoerner or the unproven Happ at second, and the unproven Happ or the unproven Almora in center.

And if the Cubs keep Bryant, that makes the second base fight a three-way contest between Happ, Bote, and Hoerner, all of them unproven.