Boston Red Sox: How much is Mookie Betts really worth?

It appears Mookie Betts’ days with the Boston Red Sox a numbered as he reportedly turns down a 10-year, $300M deal. Here’s what we know.

I’m sure that by now most of you have heard Lou Meroni on OMF report that during the 2019 offseason, Mookie Betts turned down a 10-year, $300M offer from the Boston Red Sox, countering with 12-year, $420M. The report has left a sour taste in the mouths of Sox fans across social media, some even bidding the elite outfielder a premature farewell.

“That’s just way too much money,” one Twitter user declared. Of course, it is, but what’s truly behind the counteroffer? Does Betts really think he’s going to get a 12-year deal worth $420M, just $6.5M fewer than the best player in baseball?

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I seriously doubt it.

However, this is how negotiations work, and if we were to meet somewhere in the middle – perhaps 10-years, $350M? – Betts is totally worth it.

In order to determine a more realistic value for Betts, let’s break down MLB’s FIVE largest deals for position players at the time of their signing. Also, let’s determine how much each of these players was paid for each win they contributed to their team using fWAR.

1. Bryce Harper – $330M | 30.5 fWAR | Cost/Win $10,819,672
2. Giancarlo Stanton – $325M | 21.4 fWAR | Cost/Win $15,186,916
3. Manny Machado – $300M | 30.1 fWAR | Cost/Win $9,966,777
4. Nolan Arenado – $260M | 25.4 fWAR | Cost/Win $10,236,220
5. Anthony Rendon – $245M | 25.7 fWAR | Cost/Win $9,533,074

If we are to remove the one outlier in the group, Stanton, who was paid significantly more than the rest of the group, then the average price each team paid per win comes out to $10,138,936. Now, if we multiply that by the number of wins Mookie Betts – 37.2 fWAR – has contributed to his team, then he should be paid to the tune of $377M.

The point is, both sides were off in their offer. Betts to his credit was closer to his worth than the Boston Red Sox were. If the team imagines Betts as a significant part of their future, they’re going to have to come up in price.

Otherwise, Mookie will have to take his talents elsewhere. Perhaps, Los Angeles?