Phillies: The interesting, non-roster invitee battle to come
The Philadelphia Phillies have stocked up on experienced MLB players on minor league contracts. Here are three who definitely could make the team.
As many have now noted, the Philadelphia Phillies have signed a number of veteran players this winter to minor league contracts and will have invited at least 10 to Spring Training with the major league club. Many clubs do this, but the Phillies have seemingly loaded up with players with significant amounts of MLB experience, notably Bud Norris, Josh Harrison, Drew Storen, Francisco Liriano, and Neil Walker.
Of all those newbies the Phillies will watch train in Clearwater, though, which are the players most likely to actually win jobs as camp breaks, actually see a significant amount of playing time, or even be the first player to replace a regular starter?
You must be kidding. Especially about that last question.
This isn’t Las Vegas. You want long-shot bets, get on a plane. (Yeah, I know you don’t really have to, but that doesn’t make for any kind of snappy line.)
On the other hand, why not go after that long-shot bet? The one player who stands a very good chance of being the first to replace a starter (not the catcher) in the first inning of a game – assuming the starters few now question and no injuries to them – is Neil Walker. He should make this team and could replace Rhys Hoskins fairly early if Hoskins’ slump from late last season bleeds into the spring.
This, of course, is not to say that Walker and then some other player not named Hoskins will replace “The Big Fella” in the Phillies long-term plans. Hoskins’ power potential and age dictate that Walker taking any playing time away from him would likely be a temporary matter.
According to Scott Lauber, Hoskins has been tinkering with his hands position (it may be lower) and a more “relaxed” stance since November, but he tinkered with things last season too. And as in 2018, he flamed out at the end of the campaign. He finished the year with a fairly dreadful batting average (.226) and declines in home runs and RBI year-over-year.
Add to this the fact that Walker as a replacement is not just a clearly inferior stopgap utility player without power. He has hit 23 home runs twice in his career, equaled or bettered 25 doubles in a year several times, and in 2017 and ’19 had 21 and 19 doubles, respectively, in fewer than 120 games. His career batting average is .267. He’s 6-foot-3, 210.
Moreover, Hoskins isn’t the most effective fielding first baseman in baseball although he is certainly better there than he was during “the great left-field experiment of 2018.”
A Discussion of Great and Average Fielding
One way to consider Hoskins as a first baseman is to contrast him in three regards to two of the best first basemen as fielders in the NL, Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman. Those three regards are fielding percentage and two of those initially baffling columns on their Baseball-Reference.com pages, Rtot and Rdrs.
Rtot is a range explainer, a composite figure giving the number of runs above or below average the first baseman is worth based on “the number of plays made.” Rdrs is also an above or below average measure counting/estimating “defensive runs saved.”
Here’s what you have:
- Goldschmidt: 2019 fielding pct. – .996 (career .996 at 1B); Rtot – 46 (9 seasons at 1B); Rdrs – 54 (9 seasons)
- Freeman: 2019 fielding pct. — .996 (career .995 at 1B); Rtot – 6 (10 seasons at 1B); Rdrs – 28 (10 seasons)
- Hoskins: 2019 fielding pct. at 1B – .993 (career .993 at 1B); Rtot – 2 (3 seasons at 1B); Rdrs – minus-4 (3 seasons)
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No shockers here: Goldschmidt and Freeman are league leaders; Goldschmidt has far better range and overall defensive ability than the other two; Hoskins is still learning. However, this isn’t to say Hoskins couldn’t become a very good fielder; in his first 182 games at first base over two seasons, Goldschmidt’s Rtot average was minus-4.5, his Rdrs minus-1. Hoskins has played in only 202 games at the position.
Meanwhile, Walker has been playing all over the field, basically, since his days as an everyday second baseman ended with the Mets in 2017. But at first base, despite being seven years older than Hoskins, he is also somewhat inexperienced, having played in only 128 games at the position, all in the same three seasons Hoskins has played. In those games he has these numbers:
- Walker: 2019 fielding pct. at 1B – .996 (career .995 at 1B); Rtot – minus-1 (3 seasons at 1B); Rdrs – minus-2 (3 seasons).
In other words, if Hoskins doesn’t hit, the excuse to sit him down will be that he needs a game to breathe, or collect himself, or whatever manager Joe Girardi comes up with. Nothing is really lost by putting a glove on Walker instead of him. And that could come early.
Some of the Other NRIs
How about the other non-roster invitees in the Phillies camp? Again, this is all quite speculative, and a detailed comparison like the one above for first basemen may never come into play because of a given NRI’s performance in the first two weeks of spring training.
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However, two players to look for making the team, assuming no February or March injury and reasonable performances, are the youngest and oldest of the players the Phillies have signed to minor league contracts, Ronald Torreyes and Francisco Liriano, respectively.
Torreyes, who will be entering his age-27 season, is a former Yankee like Girardi, a sparkplug entertainer as a player, and has, additionally, a counterintuitive advantage in his size (5-foot-8, 151). Bear with me on this: The front runner utilitymen on minor league deals in the Phillies camp will be Walker (who could replace other players than Hoskins), Torreyes, Josh Harrison, and Phil Gosselin.
Now let’s assume that either Jean Segura or Scott Kingery falters out of the gate, or even as late as June, wherever they’re playing. I’d suggest that Phillies GM Klentak doesn’t want to hear anybody suggesting either of those players be traded. Either trade would be embarrassing. But in Torreyes, you have a guy whose stature fairly screams “backup dude.”
I can imagine the discussion. “Joe,” Klentak could say, “look, let’s address that later. We kept Ronnie in no small part because he hit .281 in the Bronx. Pressure, right? He’s doing a good job, and we can continue to work with Scottie/Jean.” He doesn’t want to be debating about Harrison, particularly, a 185-pound former All-Star.
As for Liriano, his making the team depends on a spring demonstration that he still has some ammunition in his age-36 arm, but if that appears to be true, he could be a valuable left-handed arm out of the bullpen. It came late in his career, but in his age-35 season he finally, firmly, became a relief pitcher, appearing in almost 70 games, and for the first time in his career, making no starts.
Next. Mets: How Luis Rojas fits in the Alou family. dark
In spite of his age, Liriano maintained a 3.47 ERA and struck out almost two batters for every one walked.