Philadelphia Phillies vs. the New York Mets for 2020

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Former Mets starter joins the Phillies rotation. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

Beginning with pitchers and catchers, the Phillies will compete with three National League East rivals for the divisional pennant, so let’s firstly examine and compare their offseason changes, resources and weaknesses with the Mets.

Us versus them:

Many faithful supporters of the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets usually have either high or minimal expectations, but the midpoint is the closest to reality until mid-April. Besides, each 162 has surprises, disappointments and injuries. Plus question marks, no?

IN OTHER WORDS: “There are two ways to be happy: improve your reality, or lower your expectations.” – Jodi Picoult

In the NL East, four organizations will again compete for the divisional crown, and the healthiest clubs will have a solid opportunity, while injuries will limit the others to a wild-card shot. And as the Washington Nationals proved last September, a hot team can win the Wild Card Game on their way to a championship.

With 12 games remaining, the 2019 Mets were 9-3 to finish at 86-76, while the Phils went 3-9 to play .500 ball at 81-81. But each franchise had adversity and unhappy fans, who expected more than the product on the field. Against each other, though, the Fightins had 12 wins to New York’s seven.

Financially, both organizations have payrolls slightly over $183 million, but Philadelphia is at $204.6 million AAV (average annual value) to New York’s $202.2 million AAV. And both will either move some salary or exceed the CBT (competitive-balance threshold) of $208 million AAV to compete after the All-Star break.

This winter, the Mets spent $24.35 million on free agents (NL eighth) and outbid the Phils for Dellin Betances ($10.5 million), plus he will take some pressure off the weakest part of their 25-man roster. As for the red pinstripes, they signed Zack Wheeler ($118 million) plus Didi Gregorius ($14 million) for $132 million (NL third).

Division-wise, the Atlanta Braves inked a closer but lost their hot-corner slugger. In the bullpen, their three mid-season acquisitions will return as question marks. And even though the Nationals are the defending champs, they lost their top bat but will have the same pen they had relied on from August through October.

Expectations: The Metropolitans have a solid one-through-four rotation, have streaky hitters, but could agonize over the final three innings of many contests. Meanwhile, the Fightins’ five-man staff and offense are stronger, but the relief corps will feature the same cast of characters with improvement depending on their health.

Betances has moved from the Bronx to Queens. Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images. /

Dollars and sense:

While, spending-wise, Phillies fans are unhappy, the Mets faithful believe their club doesn’t act like a big-market team. But both franchises have similar payrolls: New York is at $183.36 million to Philly’s $183.34 million. As for the $208 million CBT, the Mets are under by $7.8 million AAV to the locals’ $5.6 million AAV.

The Metropolitans increased free-agent commitments by $24.35 million: eighth in the NL. And while Betances with a $10.5 million contract received the lion’s share, the organization also signed two starters and one reliever. Yes, New York needs a center fielder, but they must trade within their financial limitations.

Like most front offices, the Mets will wait until after the first half to fix glaring deficiencies. So, will their shortcomings be in the bullpen and/or the outfield? Plus they have an aging star at the keystone and a first sacker in left field. Their version of Rhys Hoskins?

The red pinstripes’ situation is different than most because they have elected to pursue quality, not quantity. Firstly, they picked up a solid rotation arm with Wheeler and a left-handed bat with power to complement Bryce Harper in an otherwise right-heavy lineup. But the original plan was to also ink Betances.

For the stretch drive, general manager Matt Klentak can exceed the $208 million CBT by $17-18 million AAV. And he will probably deal top prospects –other than Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard— if the Fightins are either in the divisional hunt or on an extended run of .600 ball.

Gregorius will round the bases for the Phillies in 2020. Photo by Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

Pluses and minuses:

To compete with the Phillies, New York signed two five-slot arms to battle for that spot. Wacha ($3 million) made 24 starts with a 4.76 ERA, and Porcello ($10 million) had 32 outings with a 5.52 ERA. Relief-wise, Betances worked only 2/3 of a frame, and Brach ($0.85 million) had a 5.47 ERA.

Mets added pitching:

Porcello, 31: 32 Gms., 174 1/3 Inn., 14-12, a 5.52 ERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
Wacha, 28.5: 29 Gms. (5 relief), 126 2/3 Inn., 6-7, a 4.76 ERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.56 WHIP.
*Brach, 33.5: 58 Gms., 54 1/3 Inn., 6 Holds, a 5.47 ERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.62 WHIP.
* All in relief

Mets added hitting:

Marisnick, 28.5: 120 Gms., 318 PA, a .233 Avg., 10 HR, 34 RBI, a .700 OPS and a 1.1 fWAR.

Mets deducted hitting:

Frazier, almost 34: 133 Gms., 499 PA, a .251 Avg., 21 HR, 67 RBI, a .772 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.

At third base, Jeff McNeil will have an everyday position unless second base becomes a run production problem. But if they’re healthy, the Metropolitans have six outfielders including a winter pickup for $3.3 million and the salary-restructured left fielder with questionable wheels.

Second chances: Closer Edwin Diaz and setup man Jeurys Familia will affect New York’s finish. Clearly, the pitching coach will have his work cut out for him to get 2018’s production from them. A clue: I had hope when they came in. But Mike Francesa at WFAN was appropriately beside himself regarding Diaz’s Philly outing.

Mets rebounding relievers:

Diaz, 25.5: 66 Gms., 58 Inn., a 5.59 ERA, 26 Saves, 7 BS, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
Familia, 30: 66 Gms., 60 Inn., a 5.70 ERA, 14 Holds, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.73 WHIP.

Phillies added pitching and Mets deducted pitching:

Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies added hitting:

*Gregorius, 29.5: 82 Gms., 344 PA, a .238 Avg.,16 HR, 61 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
* Injury-riddled season.

While the red pinstripes acquired Wheeler and Gregorius, they cut Hernandez, Franco and Herrera. Now, Scott Kingery will man the hot corner, Jean Segura will switch to the keystone, but Herrera will return to Triple-A. An incentive?

Phillies deducted hitting:

*Herrera, 28: 39 Gms., 139 PA, a .222 Avg., 1 HR, 16 RBI, a .629 OPS and a -0.4 fWAR.
Hernandez, 29.5: 161 Gms., 667 PA, a .279 Avg., a .333 OBP, 14 HR, 71 RBI, a .741 OPS and a 2.1 fWAR.
Franco, 27.5: 123 Gms., 428 PA, a .234 Avg., 17 HR, 56 RBI, a .705 OPS and a -0.5 fWAR.
*Suspended for balance of 2019.

The relief corps will again receive contributions from counted-on arms due to season-ending injuries: Morgan, Arano and Dominguez, who is on a slower pace with three coaches monitoring him. That stated, he won’t need four weeks to be ready for Opening Day.

Hoskins will have the opportunity to redeem himself after a forgettable second half, and I wouldn’t bet against a man who is starting a family and wants to maximize his income. Meanwhile, Segura is still young enough to bounce back to a .300 average. And Aaron Nola will probably resemble 2018’s ace.

The Phillies will count on Girardi to pilot them. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. /

Scoping out the competition:

While the Phillies and Mets battle each other, they will also contend with Washington, who lost Rendon to free agency: less run production. In the pen, they kept the three relievers picked up in July and added free-agent Harris. Translation: they aren’t as strong as last year.

Even thought the Nats have three top-tier starters, Atlanta will be the more difficult opponent. They’ve shored up their bullpen with a $40 million closer and their three pen additions from July. However, the outfielder they signed isn’t as strong offensively as the slugger who returned to the American League.

To their five-man staff, they inked Cole Hamels for $18 million to replace Keuchel, who also switched back to the Junior Circuit. This campaign, though, they may depend on two youngsters pitching every fifth day, and developing hurlers do experience growing pains during their first 60-120 starts.

For the Phils and Mets, new managers and coaches will have major roles with these contending teams. Unfortunately, New York had hired Carlos Beltran and his staff before he resigned due to the sign-stealing debacle. But new skipper Luis Rojas will go into the season with coaches suited for Beltran due to the timing.

Locally, new manager Joe Girardi has brought aboard pitching and hitting coaches with many 162s under their belts, and they work with players on an individual basis. So what should you call 2020’s combination of analytics and old-school baseball to 2019’s number crunchers? An advantage!

Last minute hire Luis Rojas will now lead the Mets. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.