Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves for 2020

With healthy expectations ahead, the Phillies will compete for the National League East crown, while the Braves will be defending their second consecutive pennant against the Fightins and two other formidable rivals.

Divisional challenges:   

Two years ago, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves were a season away from contention. But after Atlanta had surprised many by capturing 2018’s NL East, they then had better health than their three competitors and won another title. So, can they do a three-peat?

IN OTHER WORDS:    “The most rewarding things you do in life are often the ones that look like they cannot be done.” – Arnold Palmer

National publications believe the NL East is the most competitive division, but their predictions based on 2019 mirror that finish: the Braves, Washington Nationals, New York Mets and Phils. But how much did health play a role in each organization’s outcome?

Although Atlanta had 97 triumphs to Philadelphia’s 81, 2020’s divisional race is not a foregone conclusion. Basically, the red pinstripes had eight relievers on the IL (injured list) and four outfielders missing big chunks of time, but the Braves were the healthiest of the four clubs. Yet the Phils won 10 of their 19 games.

Even though the Fightins are at $205 million AAV (average annual value), they like some franchises are willing to exceed the CBT (competitive-balance threshold). Translation: They will spend up to $228 million. But Atlanta could also allocate resources in July without surpassing the CBT to make a deep playoff run.

Presently, the Braves want more than an NLDS appearance. And they’ve indicated that by signing closer Will Smith, Cole Hamels and outfielder Marcell Ozuna to fill a need, replace an arm and a bat. As for the red pinstripes, they’ve inked Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius with a quality approach instead of quantity.

The divisional battle is a four-team race with good health playing the deciding role. Basically, 2019’s finish had the healthiest club winning the NL East, while the injury-plagued Phils were a distant fourth. And many expecting the same conclusion aren’t considering key pieces on the IL.

For the faithful supporters of both franchises, 2019’s finish is 2020’s forecast. And doing so guarantees excellent health for Atlanta on the way to a third straight divisional triumph and either injuries or poor performances for the hometown nine. But the baseball gods are frequently unpredictable.

Coin flip:     

For Phillies fans, Hamels in their foe’s uniform is distasteful in the abstract and during an away contest, but the spectators at the bank may not appreciate his current status. However, the only players who were here in 2015 with Hamels were Aaron Nola and Adam Morgan plus Hector Neris in 2014 and 2015.

In the bullpen, Melancon is the named closer despite Smith receiving $40 million for three campaigns. So, Melancon will have little room for error with Smith around. Their other deadline acquisitions: Greene, who quickly lost the closing role, will be a setup man, and Martin will also. Atlanta re-upped Greene and Martin.

Who will fill the hot-corner vacancy? Last May, the answer was Austin Riley in line with organizational planning, and he hit .356 with seven bombs and 20 RBIs for the second half of that month. Does a big May ring Philly bells? Well, Riley did what Brown had done after that magical month: Camargo’s job now?

When they were healthy, Dominguez, Morgan and Arano provided acceptable outings (75-80 percent success); plus Neris, Alvarez and Suarez were effective, not brilliant. So, that’s six of eight pen seats plus a former starter and maybe a non-roster invitee winning a spot in camp. Not a total disaster, no?

While some fans expect relievers to have the 90 percent success of top-tier closers, they also want more than an innings-eater with a 4.50 ERA slotting fifth. But even championship teams have that caliber of stater when you scope out the competition and don’t cloud your view with generalizations before pitch one.

Basically, pitching coach Bryan Price could help Velasquez, Pivetta and maybe Suarez and give one the opportunity to work every fifth day, while the other two would join the relief corps. Plus considering Price works individually with each moundsman, you should expect surprises with him coaching those 13 hurlers.

Free agents:     

Basically, the Phillies biggest need was someone to slot behind Nola, while the Braves struggle last summer was the ninth inning. And Smith was the market’s top closer plus an early signing at $40 million for three seasons. Eye-catching stat: 34 saves out of 38.

Braves added pitching:

• Hamels, 36: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
• Smith, 30.5: 63 Gms., 65 1/3 Inn., a 2.76 ERA, 34 Saves, 4 BS, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.

Braves added hitting:   

• Ozuna, 29: 130 Gms., 549 PA, a .243 Avg., 29 HR, 89 RBI, an .804 OPS and a 2.6 fWAR.

Braves hitting deducted:

• Donaldson, 34: 155 Gms., 659 PA, a .259 Avg., 37 HR, 94 RBI, a .900 OPS and a 4.9 fWAR.

In the rotation, Hamels at $18 million for ’20 replaces Keuchel and will provide veteran leadership for a young staff. The former Phil went 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA in 2019. Rotation questions: Can Mike Soroka produce again, will Mike Foltynewicz bounce back, and which youngster will slot fifth?

Although Ozuna isn’t a threat like Donaldson, the left fielder hit .241 with 29 homers and 89 RBIs to Donaldson’s 37 long balls, 94 RBIs and .259 average. Therefore, Ozuna at $18 million for 2020 will bat cleanup behind Freddie Freeman in Donaldson’s spot.

One belief of signing Gregorius was to separate two right-side hitters with the left-swinging shortstop. Early on, those regulars could be Rhys Hoskins batting cleanup and J.T. Realmuto in the six hole. But Segura –depending on his production– could switch with Realmuto from the two to the six spot or alternate with him.

Phillies added pitching:

• Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies added hitting:   

• *Gregorius, 29.5: 82 Gms., 344 PA, a .238 Avg.,16 HR, 61 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
  * Injury-riddled season.

Phillies hitting deducted:

• *Herrera, 28: 39 Gms., 139 PA, a .222 Avg., 1 HR, 16 RBI, a .629 OPS and a -0.4 fWAR.
• Hernandez, 29.5: 161 Gms., 667 PA, a .279 Avg., a .333 OBP, 14 HR, 71 RBI, a .741 OPS and a 2.1 fWAR.
• Franco, 27.5: 123 Gms., 428 PA, a .234 Avg., 17 HR, 56 RBI, a .705 OPS and a -0.5 fWAR.
  *Suspended for balance of 2019.

Over the winter, Wheeler created a buzz because the top-tier aces were too expensive for a star who only plays once every fifth day. But the flamethrower signed for $23.6 million AAV instead of $35-36 million AAV, and his deal was 2-4 years shorter. Upside-wise, many clubs believe he’ll be a solid two or better.

Financials:

While the Phillies were third in NL free-agent spending, the Braves were fourth at $116.25 million. And Atlanta has increased their payroll to its highest level under their current ownership. Apparently, Liberty Media Corporation desires postseason glory, but will management be as active as last July?

The red pinstripes’ strategy for ’20 is inking difference-making pieces instead of volume. Yes, their $132 million outlay was third behind Washington’s $316.75 million and the Cincinnati Reds’ $164 million.

The Fightins are at $205 million AAV ($204.99 million AAV), which allows $20-23 million AAV to pick up hurlers for the five-man staff and relief corps. Basically, the execs will leave $2-3 million to cover incentives and other 40-man expenses, but $20 million can remedy their ills. And the 20 percent rate equals a $4 million tax.

Paying a 50 percent Luxury Tax again doesn’t appeal to the Nationals, but they are currently $10 million AAV under the CBT. So, they can avoid a fourth straight campaign of penalties. As for the Mets, they are at $201.7 million AAV and must move salary to have more than $6.3 million available for July.

Financially, the Phillies brass will have an advantage at the trading deadline. But which organization will have more surprises and expectations met than disappointments, injuries, and question marks? Only the baseball gods know!