MLB win totals: AL West over or under according to Vegas
Caesars Sports Book has posted the 2020 MLB win totals. Today, we’ll analyze each AL West team’s lean towards the over/under.
MLB win totals have been released for the 2020 regular season. Caesars Sports Book introduced them to the public less than a month ago. To no surprise, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to notch the most victories. Also to no surprise, the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers are the dunces of the pack, each marked at 55.5 wins. You can find your team’s win total here.
Now is the time to run some analysis before you “invest” your hard-earned money at a Sports Book. If you’re not a gambler, it’s still fun to see if a Sports Writer’s opinion leans in the same direction as yours. Thus, we’re compiling a series of articles addressing each team’s win total, suggesting whether a team will exceed the number or fall short of it.
We’ll go division by division, beginning with the AL West.
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Houston Astros
Win Total: 97
Prediction: Under
Scandalous and controversial, the Astros remain incredibly talented. They possess the league’s Cy Young winner, Rookie of the Year, and MVP runner-up from a season ago. That was a season in which they won 107 games and came one victory shy of hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.
However, they lost Gerrit Cole to the Yankees this offseason. Cole earned the ‘Stros 20 wins in 2019 and posted a 10th-ranked WAR of 6.9. He is impossible to replace, and Houston must now rely on a healthy Lance McCullers and 36-year-old Zack Greinke to makeup the gaping void.
The Astros still have the ability, experience, and depth to reach 97 wins. That said, they’ll face much-improved divisional opponents — the Angels and Rangers had impressive offseasons, and the Athletics appear as strong as they have in years. There’s also a good chance Houston emerges slowly this season due to the giant monkey on their backs — the monkey of course representing a tainted organization.
Houston might still conquer the AL West, but they would do so by winning less than 97 games.
MLB win totals: AL West over or under according to Vegasd
Oakland Athletics
Win Total: 89.5
Prediction: Over
The A’s are always underdogs. They’ve won 97 games in back-to-back seasons, yet Caesars set the line at 89.5 for 2020. They won 14 more games than their expected win total of 83 in 2019 and 23 more games than their expected win total of 74 in 2018. Why are the Athletics always disrespected? Beats me.
They contribute one of the best starting rotations in baseball every year, which suits perfectly with their giant ballpark. It would not be surprising if Oakland boasts the top rotation in MLB this year. Sean Manaea is healthy again. The 6’5” southpaw has come into his own the past two seasons, posting a 3.59 ERA over 27 starts in 2018 and a 1.21 ERA over five starts in 2019. He’s expected to toe the rubber for the A’s on opening day.
In addition, Frankie Montas proved dominant around his 80-game PED suspension a season ago, Mike Fiers rediscovered himself, and the organization’s most prized prospects are expected to hit the ground running in 2020: Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk.
Consistent pitching is crucial to an “over” bet. That is what the Oakland Athletics have. They also have arguably the best defense in baseball and a deep batting order. Take the over!
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Los Angeles Angels
Win Total: 85.5
Prediction: Under
Everyone is hopping on the Angels’ bandwagon. The Halos signed third baseman Anthony Rendon to a mega-deal this offseason, meaning Mike Trout will finally have adequate protection in the lineup. They are also waiting on a trade for outfielder Joc Pederson to solidify.
Despite improving their offense, the Angels took their customary passive approach toward the MLB starting pitching market this offseason. That’s why I am going against the grain by picking them to win less than 86 games. They will need Shohei Ohtani to stay healthy and pitch like a true ace. They will also need Andrew Heaney to take a step forward from his 4.91 ERA in 2019.
Right-handers Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran joined their staff, though neither poses much of a threat. They have a talented bullpen, but time will tell if the pen can withstand constant modest outings from the starters.
Yes, Los Angeles’ offense looks great, but it’s not enough to carry them to 86+ wins this MLB season.
MLB win totals: AL West over or under according to Vegas
Texas Rangers
Win Total: 78.5
Prediction: Over
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The Texas Rangers will have the momentum of a brand-new, air-conditioned ballpark, which means fans will be attending home games in droves. They’ll also be spoiled by new addition and former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. The hope for Texas fans is Kluber, Mike Minor, and Lance Lynn will head one of the best rotations in the AL. That’s a big ask, however, it’s certainly possible given Kluber’s track record and the recent dominant campaigns from Minor and Lynn.
Texas will need to scrap together a formidable bullpen; they have enough young arms to make an impact and ensure depth. Without a doubt, they’ll need a special season from closer Jose Leclerc to make a run at the postseason.
Offensively, the Rangers need repeat years from sluggers Joey Gallo and Danny Santana, and improved years from Elvis Andrus and newcomer Todd Frazier. Hitting is definitely a question mark for this bunch, though Rangers teams traditionally pull through with the bats.
Texas didn’t go out and sign Corey Kluber so they could win fewer than 79 games in 2020. They’ll accomplish at least a .500 record.
Seattle Mariners
Win Total: 67.5
Prediction: Under
The Mariners enter 2020 with little hope. They are in the early stages of what will likely be a significant rebuild. Promising talent is present, specifically their #1 prospect Justus Sheffield and #4 prospect Kyle Lewis. Sheffield struggled throughout his first MLB tour, posting a 5.50 ERA over eight appearances. Lewis hit .268 with six home runs over 18 games as a September call-up last season.
The M’s youthful roster will struggle against the established talent of their division counterparts. As such, it’s going to be a long year for the Seattle faithful. The Mariners won 68 games in 2019, but that was aided by the mirage of a 13-2 start. That won’t happen this go around. Expect less than 68 victories.
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Stay tuned for more Caesars win total analysis. We’ll tackle the American League Central next!