Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

First base

Offensively, Matt Olson probably had the better 2019. Yuli Gurriel out-hit him by 20 points (.282 to .261), but Olson delivered a dozen more dingers (33-21), a significantly higher OPS (.865-.800) and a better WAR (5.1to 3.2). His 137 OPS+ was 11 points higher than Gurriel’s 126.

Defensively it was no contest. Olson won the Gold Glove on a .993 fielding percentage and 14 Defensive Runs Saved. At .996, Gurriel slightly bettered Olson on fielding average, but he produced zero Defensive Runs Saved, in part because he accepted 690 fewer chances.

Some of that obviously was due to the Astros’ rotation’s greater penchant for keeping the ball out of play, but some of it was skill; Olson’s 8.94 career positional range factor is far superior to Gurriel’s 7.72.

The biggest difference, however, maybe age. Olson is entering his age 26 season, putting him almost squarely in his peak years. Gurriel will be 36 in June, an age at which a performance decline is to be expected.

The bottom line: Olson was a better hitter than Gurriel in 2019, a far superior fielder, and he’s improving. Houston’s first baseman is coming off the best of his four major league seasons. But his age and 14 seasons of Cuban ball are likely to catch up with him in 2020, widening the gap between the two.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Second base

More than at any other position, the Astros are clearly superior at second base. They begin the season with a healthy Jose Altuve, a former MVP who batted .298 in 2019 with 31 home runs, a 3.7 WAR and a 131 OPS+.

The Oakland Athletics open 2020 with question marks at second base. The 2019 incumbent, Jurickson Profar, has been traded to San Diego. Plan A is to replace him with Franklin Barreto, who across parts of three seasons shuttling between Oakland, Nashville and Las Vegas has not demonstrated an ability to actually hit the ball.

In 209 major league plate appearances, Barreto is batting .189 with a 60 OPS+ and a -0.7 WAR. Those numbers raise the question: What’s Plan B?

For the moment, it’s even more obscure rookies. Jorge Mateo is a 24-year-old rookie with zero major league experience who hit .289 for Las Vegas last season. Sheldon Neuse does have big-league experience – the A’s gave him 61 plate appearances last season during which he batted .250. But he is viewed as more of a third base candidate and no more than a backup middle infielder.

No matter what the Athletics do, they’re unlikely to put anybody at second this year who threatens Altuve’s positional superiority. Under those circumstances, the best thing to do is concede Houston’s superiority and move along.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Shortstop

The Astros are widely thought of as having a powerhouse left side of the infield, beginning with shortstop Carlos Correa. But since that memorable 2017 in which he led the Astros to their World Series victory, Correa has been far more ordinary, and it is now fair to wonder whether Oakland’s Marcus Semien has surpassed him.

Begin with the 2019 MVP voting. Semien finished third behind Mike Trout and Alex Bregman, while Correa received no support whatsoever.

Semien had other strengths. He was far more reliable, playing in all 162 games in 2019 and leading the league in plate appearances with 747. Showing up is a big deal in baseball since it’s gosh darn hard to help the team from the training room.

Over the past two seasons, Correa has occupied that training room for 139 games, making him basically a part-time player. As a result, he has produced just 174 hits. That is exactly half as many as Semien over the same period.

The Astros and Correa have both pronounced him fit and ready to go for 2020, but given his track record skepticism is always in order.

The rate stats make Semien and Correa out to be essentially mirror images of one another. Semien produced a .892 OPS and 132 OPS+ in 2019, not much different from Correa’s .926 and 137. But that’s where a solid counting stat like WAR can be elucidating. Because he actually contributed so much more, Semien’s 8.1 WAR dwarfed Correa’s 2.9.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Third Base

Alex Bregman was runner-up in the 2019 MVP voting to Trout, carrying a .296 batting average, a 1.015 OPS and a 162 OPS+. Atop that, he compiled an 8.4 WAR. His credentials are unsurpassed, and entering his age 26 season he is in his absolute prime.

Against most any other American League third baseman, he would easily win the position. He wins it against Matt Chapman as well, but not by a wide margin.

Chapman’s 126 OPS+ may not rival Bregman’s, but it’s quite good. The same can be said of his 6.7 WAR. Beyond that, he, not Bregman, is the 2019 Gold Glove winner at the position. And while he didn’t finish second in the MVP voting, he did finish sixth. That ought to count for something.

Then there are the unknowns, and at third base they loom large. More than any other player, Bregman was the attitude and mindset of the pre-scandal Astros, making him the player most likely to be impacted by the scandal’s exposure.

In 2020, the pressure will be on him in a way it never has been to prove a negative…that his career numbers to this point are not artificially enhanced. Until he does that, it is an open question of how he will respond to a type of pressure he has never faced: the pressure brought about by suspicious scrutiny.

Chapman’s own ability, which is in no question, presents a high bar to measure that performance against.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Outfield

Michael Brantley and presented the Astros with his best season in years. But he will be 33 in 2020, and the only safe way to play him is in bubble wrap. Mark Canha, who will get the bulk of time in left for Oakland, arguably produced at Brantley’s level in 2019, plus he is three years younger and more durable. In 2019 he had more home runs (26-22) than Brantley, a higher OPS+ (145-126) and a virtually identical WAR (4.5-4.6).

George Springer is a solid, if not an elite center fielder. He delivered 39 home runs, a .974 OPS and a 150 OPS+, all elite figures. Ramon Laureano can’t produce at those levels, but his game is solid and on an uptick. Establishing himself as a regular in 2019, he hit 24 home runs with a .860 OPS and a 128 OPS+.

Beyond that, Laureano is clearly the superior center fielder. His 51 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019 far outstripped Springer’s 14 DRS, and his 2.53 Range Factor was better than Springer’s 2.21. You’d still take Springer, but not by much.

Josh Reddick is a glorified filler piece for the Astros in right, coming off a season in which he produced an anemic 89 OPS+. The Oakland Athletics will likely counter with fillers of their own in the platoon of Stephen Piscotty and Robbie Grossman. Neither is likely to carry the team. Right field, then, is a functional wash.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Catcher/DH

The DH spot pits a proven commodity on the decline, Oakland’s Khris Davis, against a budding star in Houston’s Yordan Alvarez. Assuming Alvarez approximates his rookie season, a .313 average, 27 homers and a 173 OPS+, he’ll outpace Davis, whose home run total fell from 48 to 23, who drove in 50 fewer runs than in 2018 and who lost 27 points on his batting average.

The catcher may be another situation entirely. The Oakland Athletics will promote Sean Murphy, whose 2019 debut was noteworthy, to what passes for full-time status in 2020. In 60 plate appearances following his September callup, Murphy produced a .899 OPS and a 137 OPS+. All that remains to be proven is his durability.

The A’s are all-in on Murphy. His backup is Austin Allen, a rookie who was acquired from Oakland over the winter in the Profar deal.

The Astros counter by relying on the defense-minded Martin Maldonado. An eight-year journeyman, Maldonado is touted for his pitch-framing skills and his throwing arm. His bat is another matter; he’s a career .219 hitter who batted .220 in 2019  and .202 for the Astros.

His backup is Dustin Garneau, signed as a free agent over the winter after being released by the A’s. Garneau is a career .207 hitter. Neither he nor Maldonado is likely to provide performance matching what Murphy, a potential future star, should provide the Athletics.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Rotation aces

Verlander’s reputation is well-earned. He went 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA across 223 innings in 2019. Entering his age 37 season, he is a candidate for decline, but his record argues that he’ll probably replicate his solid numbers for one more season.

Manaea is coming off surgery that cost him most of 2019. But he returned in September to re-establish his own ace status, out-pitching everybody over the final four weeks, including Verlander and the since-departed Gerrit Cole. In five starts he went 4-0 and allowed just four earned runs in 30 innings.

Unless injuries strike again – always a possibility with any pitcher – Manaea is well-positioned to match and even surpass Verlander in 2020.

Houston’s No. 2 is Zack Greinke. He’s delivered a reliable 200 innings for several seasons, so his age (36) isn’t as big a concern as it might otherwise be. The Oakland Athletics will counter with Frankie Montas, who was a revelation when he wasn’t sitting out on a half-season drug suspension. Montas went 9-2 in 16 starts with a 2.63 ERA that was three-tenths of a point better than Greinke. Assuming he remains eligible, he’s better.

The Astros have designated Lance McCullers to suck up Cole’s starts. Like Manaea, he’s also coming off surgery. Unlike Manaea, he did not get a chance to establish himself in 2019. In four seasons prior to his injury, McCullers’ stats (29-22, 3.67 ERA, 114 innings) establish him as a competent filler pitcher, but hardly in the mold of Cole.

The A’s are counting on touted rookie Jose Luzardo to fill the No. 3 starter job. In six relief appearances following his September callup, Luzardo was functionally untouched. He compiled a 12.50 ERA and fanned 16 in 12 innings. McCullers vs. Luzardo, then, is a classic matchup of established moderate-quality vs. unproven potential.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

Rotation 4 and 5 and closer

Fiers is Oakland’s No. 4 starter. He’s a 35-year-old veteran coming off possibly his two best seasons, including 15-4 with the Athletics in 2019. He is also reliable, having made 33 starts and covered 185 innings. As the triggerman in the sign-stealing scandal, he will be in a spotlight in 2020, but other than in Houston it will largely be a favorable one.

The Astros’ No. 4 may be their No. 1 by season’s end, 2019 find Jose Urquidy.  Debuting in July, he made nine starts and went 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA. He did, however, record 40 strikeouts in 41 innings. Urquidy will get regular work in 2020, and the Astros need him to come up big.

On both teams, the fifth starter role will be a scramble. In Houston, first dibs goes to Brad Peacock, a veteran who produced fifth-man level performance in 2019. Peacock went 7-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 15 starts.

The A’s will give a first shot to A.J. Puk, a 24-year-old rookie who looked good in 10 relief appearances in 2019. If he falters, they have a backup, namely Chris Bassitt and Daniel Mengden. Bassitt was 10-2 with a  3.81 ERA in 25 starts in 2019; Mengden pitched in 13 games, nine as a starter.

Both teams return veteran closers, Roberto Osuna and Liam Hendricks.

Oakland Athletics: Why the A’s can win the AL West

The full comparison

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The Astros have a distinct advantage over the Athletics at only two positions, those being second base and DH. Bregman is better than Chapman at third, but not substantially so. Springer is better in center, but Laureano is coming on fast.

Elsewhere, the A’s are competitive and possibly better. Olson’s performance line at first is on the uptick and probably has already left Gurriel behind. Shortstops Correa and Semien are both first-rate when they play, but Semien plays much more. In left, Canha is closing on Brantley and may have already passed him. Right field is a wash.

The Astros have nothing at catcher, while the A’s have a future star in Murphy.

The decisive advantage may be on the mound. The loss of Cole forces the Astros to rely on McCullers, who was sidelined for all of 2019 and who was hardly a star before that. Urquidy has potential. Peacock is a journeyman.

All they can certainly count on, then, are Verlander and Greinke.

Manaea established during the stretch run last September that he is ready to resume his role as anchor of Oakland’s staff, and Montas provides a solid No. 2. Their joint return, coupled with Cole’s loss, could all by itself swing most of the 10-game gap between the two teams.

Fiers is a third established asset, making the Oakland rotation deeper, more established and more reliable than Houston’s. As with Urquidy in Houston, the A’s will hope for some kids to come through, notably Puk and Luzardo. But unlike the Astros, they also have Bassit to cover them in the event the kids fail.

Finally, Houston must play the entire season looking over their moral shoulders, stripped of the swagger that has fueled them. It’s hard to play baseball while carrying baggage. That may be Oakland’s best and most meaningful advantage of all.