Phillies: Thinking some rosy thoughts about those pitchers
And now, some positive thoughts about the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff.
The big, beautiful Philadelphia Phillies equipment truck has left the City that Hates You Back and is making its way to Clearwater, FL, where it will unload its contents, which will be used beginning Feb. 11 – with hope – by a team with aspirations of moving higher than fourth place in its division.
That has happened only twice since the juggernaut 2011 season when the Phils set their season record with 102 wins. The ’12 and ‘18 third-place teams went a combined 161-163, however, and inspired no one.
But now the team is loaded with high-priced talent and a very questionable potential pitching staff led by a very good pair of right-handed starters, a recently repaired, past Cy Young award winner with “grit,” and about 40 question marks as Spring Training opens.
Nobody in the Delaware Valley believes that Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Jake Arrieta will haul the Phillies to glory without significant mound support. But it is the time of year for the “high hopes” of the corny song favored by a late, beloved broadcaster, so let’s imagine a best-case scenario.
(And, yes, I can see my Phillies dude in the back, in the faded Aaron Altherr t-shirt, sarcastically asking his buddy, “A what case what???”)
OK, let’s say Nola, Wheeler, and Arrieta manage to go 15-5, 17-4, and 13-10, respectively. This assumes that Nola doesn’t quite return to his near Cy Young form of ’18, but does better than in ’19; that Wheeler sort of blossoms in a way he didn’t with the Mets, and that Arrieta’s cleaned-out elbow gives him his best year with the Phillies so far in his contract year. None of this is wildly unreasonable.
Beyond that, let’s say of the 93 games they start but other pitchers get the decisions, the Phillies win 17 and lose 12. There’s a lot of firepower on this team now, and only one assumed position starter will not be at least a somewhat seasoned veteran – Adam Haseley.
So, this means the Phillies could go 62-31 in games started by three fairly healthy, quite effective starters backed by a bullpen that’s a bit better than mediocre. Note that 31 games started apiece for these three is not an absolute peak number of starts, but it’s good.
This is a pretty rosy picture, but still, the team must come up with another 28 wins, minimally, to win the division. Where do they come from?
The 40 question marks must go 28-41 in games not started by the top three starters for the team to reach 90 wins.
Could It Happen?
A fair amount of that will fall on the new pitching coach, Bryan Price, and his work with the remaining alleged starters Phillies fans should view as the Three Failing Amigos, as well as developing starters who will very likely take some of the starts in the fourth and fifth starting slots.
Price’s work with relief pitchers will also be important, and as scary as depending on, say, Vince Velasquez to provide a foundation for 28 wins is, the Phillies relievers are just as iffy, but may offer a bit more hope.
However, let’s stay with the starters for the moment, stay rosy, and say either Velasquez or Zach Eflin manages to go 10-10 in 30 starts.
Yeah, that could happen, and then the Phillies would only need to go 18-31 in games started by the fifth-slot starter or starters and the 10 games in which decisions don’t go to the Phillies miracle .500 fourth-slot starter.
(Obviously, a few of the starts remaining will be elsewhere in the rotation in reality, but for neatness sake, let’s put all 39 in the five slot.)
Let’s review what we’re assuming will go well here. The “firepower offense” must deliver. The top three assumed starters must do very well with an allowed touch of just above average. And the fourth starter or combo starters must go 10-10. Call him Eflin this time around.
The rest of the pitchers literally throwing after the 10-10 guy – the relievers for him, any fifth-slot starter, and any fifth-slot relievers – must only manage not to lose roughly twice as many games as they win.
Who will these remaining pitchers likely be past Eflin or Velasquez as the number four starter? We must especially consider the relievers, who might make meaningful impacts, especially among the younger players or those returning from injury.
Who Has to Only Under-deliver in 49 Games?
Potential No. 5 starters – begin obviously with either Velasquez or Eflin, whoever isn’t number four. Add then four others, three of whom Phillies fans are eager to see, and one not so much:
· Spencer Howard – Matt Breen of The Athletic (pay site) recently suggested the Phillies might not actually use the 6-foot-2, 205-pound right-hander that much this spring, preferring to “conserve his innings for later in the season.” Expect to see him at some point. The 23-year-old has started 47 of 47 games he’s pitched in the minors, completing one and posting a 1.136 WHIP.
· Cole Irvin – Breen offered the best news about this motley crew of starters in regard to Irvin, noting that his fastball “was 92-93 mph in September after some mechanical tweaks in the bullpen. A huge difference, if he can maintain it.” He’d better, or he’ll never stick. The left-hander was not terribly effective with the 88-89 he was throwing earlier. He could start, relieve, or go to Triple-A and do that.
· Ranger Suarez – The age-24 lefty was draped with Breen’s most intriguing comment. Suarez “might return to starting” after some good work in challenging situations out of the bullpen. He has won 11 of his 14 MLB decisions despite an ERA of 3.68.
· Nick Pivetta – Along with Eflin and Velasquez, Pivetta has lost the faith of most Phillies fans. The righty does throw hard. Price has made noises to the effect that he still has potential.
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Promising potential relievers it is hoped will contribute:
· Adam Morgan (age-30 season) – It is widely expected that the lefthander has one of the bullpen positions nailed down. Before his last outing last season, when he surely pitched with a flexor strain for part of that outing, his ERA was 3.07 in 39 appearances. He must stay healthy.
· Jose Alverez (31) – With over 330 innings posted in largely short relief stints, Alvarez is perhaps the second on this list to have a position secured. He started 2019 slowly, however.
· Victor Arano (25) – The recovering Arano has a career 2.77 ERA, but after arthroscopic surgery last spring (three games into his season), he didn’t return. His excellent slider gets swinging strikes.
· Cristopher Sanchez (23) – The reed-thin, 6-foot-5 lefty from the Dominican Republican couldn’t crack the Rays roster. He could be a set-up contrast to Hector Neris, the presumed closer, and throws 100 mph. He needs to refine his control.
· Seranthony Dominguez (25) – Dominguez avoided Tommy John surgery, but now is iffy and not expected to see much Spring Training action. If he’s OK, he’ll be valuable.
· Hector Neris (31) – The veteran right-hander with the good splitter when it’s working is the default closer at this point. Career: 307 relief appearance, 311.2 total innings pitched – the very definition of a one-inning guy. Neris has a 3.29 career ERA, a 6.4 WAR in six seasons, and 67 saves, topping out at 28 in ’19. His picture is not in the dictionary next to “lock-down closer,” but then, whose is? Many such creatures remain that type of closer for exactly one season. Neris has fought through a failure of his best pitch at least once in his career thus far.
Not all of these relievers are locks to even be offered positions with the Phillies Triple-A club, Lehigh Valley, but there’s some real promise in Howard, Suarez and the relievers named here.
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And assuming a 10-10 four-slot starter base in our rosy scenario, the 11 players above or players very like them only have to post a 28-41 record in games not started by the top three starters. Simple.