MLB Win Totals: AL East over or under according to Vegas
Caesars Sports Book has posted the 2020 MLB win totals. Today, we’ll analyze each AL East team’s lean towards the over/under.
We move onto the AL East version of our MLB win totals analysis. We’re taking a look at Caesar Sports Book’s published totals and determining which teams will hit the over and which teams will hit the under. See the full list from Caesars, and check out our AL West and AL Central takes in case you missed them.
Without further ado, let’s begin with the New Yankees…
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New York Yankees
MLB Win Totals: 101
Prediction: Over
The Yanks won 103 games last season as the most injury-riddled squad in the sport. Only three position players notched over 140 games played. Aaron Judge played 102 games, Giancarlo Stanton played 18 games, Didi Gregorius 82 games, Aaron Hicks 59, Gary Sanchez 106, and Miguel Andujar 12. They also got just three regular-season starts out of Luis Severino.
Injuries will inevitably occur in 2020 as well; however, you have to believe New York will have better luck than a year ago. They are the most star-studded team in MLB, and the “World Series or bust” mentality cannot be any more obvious. Gerrit Cole and the rest of the rotation will be under unimaginable pressure to earn the top seed in the AL and to win the most famed organization in baseball its first championship in over a decade.
Pressure or not, there is no way this team wins less than 101 games. The argument can be made that they have the best offense, rotation, and bullpen in the major leagues. Their opponents will be stressed to the max throughout every series, as there will be no let-up from the Yankees on either side of the field. The Bronx Bombers may break the regular-season wins record of 116 currently held by the ’01 Mariners.
MLB Win Totals: AL East over or under according to Vegas
Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Win Totals: 90
Prediction: Over
The Rays never have it easy. They consistently have one of the lowest payrolls in MLB, they play in an outdated stadium, and they have a devil of a time getting people to show up to their outdated stadium, no matter how well they play. And they play well quite often.
Tampa is coming off a 96-win season, and their first playoff berth since 2013. They’ll likely look up at the Yankees for much of the 2020 season, though another second-place finish in the division is well within reach.
Per usual, their pitching really stands out. Charlie Morton notched a 16-6 record in 2019 with a 3.05 ERA. Blake Snell didn’t pop off the page like he did throughout his 2018 Cy Young campaign, though he still posted an impressive 3.32 FIP and fanned 12 batters per nine innings pitched. And Tyler Glasnow appeared to be the next can’t miss starting pitcher before his season was shortened due to injury. He had a 6-1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 12 starts last year.
Tampa Bay is in outstanding shape if those three arms can do what they’re capable of doing. It’s also important to note that Rays relievers compiled the best ERA in MLB in 2019. They are unconventional with their common use of an opener, but there’s no doubt the strategy has worked for them.
They added a power bat in Hunter Renfroe (33 home runs with San Diego in 2019) and a quality hitter in Jose Martinez (.298 career batting average). The Rays will be solid all-around. I think they have 91 wins in them in 2020.
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Boston Red Sox
MLB Win Totals: 89
Prediction: Under
This will be a humbling year for the Red Sox and their fans. They lost their best player, their second-best pitcher, and their championship manager (rather controversially). The Sox will hit. J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Andrew Benintendi make up a polished core. But that’s about all they have to offer.
Besides trading Mookie Betts, Boston did nothing noteworthy this offseason. They did not address their weak bullpen nor their shallow rotation.
MLB.com lists only four starting pitchers on the Boston Red Sox depth chart: Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Martin Perez. Sale went 6-11 in 2019; Rodriguez pitched well, but he’s not seasoned enough to take on the load of a #2 starter; Eovaldi had a 5.99 ERA in 23 appearances; Perez concluded his 6th consecutive season of pitching to an ERA over 4.37.
Boston will be lucky to reach a .500 record.
MLB Win Totals: AL East over or under according to Vegas
Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Win Totals: 76
Prediction: Under
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The fate of the Blue Jays’ season falls on a 20-year-old, a 21-year-old, and a 24-year-old. Yes, the trio of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio will need to produce at the top of the Toronto lineup. There are too many all or nothing hitters beyond them, including Randal Grichuk, Travis Shaw, and Teoscar Hernandez. Balance will be crucial.
Pitching wise, the Blue Jays signed left-handed starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who won 14 games for the Dodgers last year. Ryu should thrive, as he’s a tremendous ground ball pitcher plus he has excellent command of the strike zone. Every other rotation member is highly questionable, however.
76 wins is attainable, but a lot would have to go right. The under is the safe play. Sophomore slumps could get the best of Toronto’s valiant youth. Additionally, it’s tough to rely on a staff filled with contact pitchers.
Baltimore Orioles
MLB Win Totals: 55.5
Prediction: Under
Maybe the Orioles can scrap together 56+ wins, but I don’t see it. They don’t have a defined heart of the batting order, nor do they have a trustworthy pitcher. Baltimore lost Jonathan Villar up the middle, and it’s far-fetched to think Hanser Alberto and Trey Mancini can keep up their paces from a season ago.
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The O’s ranked 28th in team ERA in 2019. Their staff allowed 179 home runs and their bullpen converted just 50% of save opportunities. Both ranked last in Major League Baseball. Their offense ranked 21st in batting average, 23rd in home runs, and 25th in OPS.
There simply isn’t any convincing evidence that this team can improve on 54 wins.