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MLB Win Totals: AL East over or under according to Vegas

By Travis Koch|
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 15: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits a single during the first inning against the Houston Astros in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 15: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits a single during the first inning against the Houston Astros in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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MLB win totals
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

MLB Win Totals: AL East over or under according to Vegas

Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Win Totals: 90

Prediction: Over

The Rays never have it easy. They consistently have one of the lowest payrolls in MLB, they play in an outdated stadium, and they have a devil of a time getting people to show up to their outdated stadium, no matter how well they play. And they play well quite often.

Tampa is coming off a 96-win season, and their first playoff berth since 2013. They’ll likely look up at the Yankees for much of the 2020 season, though another second-place finish in the division is well within reach.

Per usual, their pitching really stands out. Charlie Morton notched a 16-6 record in 2019 with a 3.05 ERA. Blake Snell didn’t pop off the page like he did throughout his 2018 Cy Young campaign, though he still posted an impressive 3.32 FIP and fanned 12 batters per nine innings pitched. And Tyler Glasnow appeared to be the next can’t miss starting pitcher before his season was shortened due to injury. He had a 6-1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 12 starts last year.

Tampa Bay is in outstanding shape if those three arms can do what they’re capable of doing. It’s also important to note that Rays relievers compiled the best ERA in MLB in 2019. They are unconventional with their common use of an opener, but there’s no doubt the strategy has worked for them.

They added a power bat in Hunter Renfroe (33 home runs with San Diego in 2019) and a quality hitter in Jose Martinez (.298 career batting average). The Rays will be solid all-around. I think they have 91 wins in them in 2020.

Boston Red Sox

MLB Win Totals: 89

Prediction: Under

This will be a humbling year for the Red Sox and their fans. They lost their best player, their second-best pitcher, and their championship manager (rather controversially). The Sox will hit. J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Andrew Benintendi make up a polished core. But that’s about all they have to offer.

Besides trading Mookie Betts, Boston did nothing noteworthy this offseason. They did not address their weak bullpen nor their shallow rotation.

MLB.com lists only four starting pitchers on the Boston Red Sox depth chart: Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Martin Perez. Sale went 6-11 in 2019; Rodriguez pitched well, but he’s not seasoned enough to take on the load of a #2 starter; Eovaldi had a 5.99 ERA in 23 appearances; Perez concluded his 6th consecutive season of pitching to an ERA over 4.37.

Boston will be lucky to reach a .500 record.

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