Chicago Cubs: For the Cubbies, it’s “who’s on second?”

The signing of Jason Kipnis gives the Chicago Cubs one more option to fill their vacancy at second base. Who gets the job?

Tuesday’s signing of free agent Jason Kipnis to a minor league contract gives the Chicago Cubs one additional option to fill the hole at second base created by the departure of Addison Russell.

Realistically, that hole has existed since the middle of August in 2018 when the Cubs shifted Javier Baez to shortstop to fill a gap created by an injury to Russell. When Russell returned, he batted .158 and then was suspended for domestic violence.

In 2019, when Russell’s suspension ended, he batted only just .237 and made just 47 starts, just 34 of them at second.

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To cover for Russell, the Cubs had signed free agent Daniel Descalso to a two-year, $4 million deal with an option for 2021. But Descalso had the worst offensive season of his 10-year career, batting just .173 in his 194 plate appearances. As a result, Descalso made just 38 starts at second, leaving more than half of the team’s starts at that position to somebody other than those two.

And in this case the term ‘somebody’ covers virtually everybody but you and me. Eight different players got at least one start for the Cubs at second during 2019, only two for more than 15 games. On three different occasions during the season, the Cubs added a player to the roster with the idea of filling the second base gap, and that doesn’t count Nico Hoerner, a natural second baseman who was called up in September to plug a gap at shortstop created by injuries to Russell and Baez.

Entering 2020, there remains no clear favorite to handle the pivotal middle infield duties. Russell, Ben Zobrist, Robel Garcia and Tony Kemp – who made a combined 95 starts at second in 2019 – are all gone. But the Chicago Cubs depth chart lists veterans David Bote and Descalso in the running with rookie Hoerner. And that doesn’t count either Kipnis or Ian Happ, who is competing for time center field and/or second.

Here’s a look at how that positional battle shapes up.

The favorite

There are several reasons why Bote is viewed as the likely starter for now.

Bote started 28 games at second in 2019, more than any player except Russell or Descalso. Based on recent track record, he also appears to have the best offensive credentials. Since being called up in mid-season 2018, he has a .251 average with 17 home runs and a 99 OPS+.

If those sound like underwhelming offensive credentials for a favorite in a big-league positional battle, well, you haven’t seen the rest of the field yet. More on that presently.

Defensively, the picture is muddy. Bote came up as a third baseman at a time when that position belonged to Kris Bryant by divine right. He only got a chance due to an injury to Bryant.  In 2019, Bryant started 46 games at third in addition to his 28 starts at second.

Yet his defensive numbers at second weren’t all that bad. They included 18 defensive runs saved – best on the team – and a .971 fielding average.

Throw that in with a .257 batting average and 103 OPS+ and you have at minimum a serviceable major league starter who, entering his age 27 season, might blossom.

The big unknown with respect to Bote is Bryant. If the Chicago Cubs trade him, then Bote moves back to third base and the fight for time at second intensifies.

Likelihood of Bote as the opening day starter at second base: 65 percent.

Chicago Cubs: For the Cubbies, it’s “who’s on second?”

The insurgent

Nico Hoerner hopes to impress new manager David Ross enough to earn a major league roster spot. If he does, that spot will almost certainly involve starting at second. Since Hoerner is only entering his age 23 season and has never played a game at Triple-A, why would the Chicago Cubs even entertain giving him the second base job?

The reason is that Hoerner made an impressive presence following his September callup as an injury fill-in for Baez. True, he played shortstop rather than his natural position at second, but that adaptability only added to the impression.

Hoerner batted .282 with three home runs in 82 plate appearances and appeared to be unfazed by his quick promotion.

His offense was uneven, leaving enough of a question mark to make his showing this spring pivotal. In the week following his arrival, Hoerner batted .364. But that average fell to .167 in his second week and .286 in his third. The Cubs will spend a great portion of the spring determining which figure represents the real Hoerner.

Even if he does well, a big strike against Hoerner may end up being the fact that he has options, meaning he can be reassigned to Iowa and recalled if that is required. Since his college days at Stanford, Hoerner has logged 70 games above Class A or rookie ball, none of those — as noted previously – at Triple-A.

The bottom line: to go north with the team, Hoerner must enjoy a spring that makes it impossible for Ross to send him down.

Likelihood of Hoerner as the opening day starter at second base: 8 percent.

Chicago Cubs: For the Cubbies, it’s “who’s on second?”

The hometown boy

When Kipnis played second base for the Cleveland Indians during the 2016 World Series, much was made of the fact that he was from a Chicago suburb and had grown up watching the Chicago Cubs. If you were a Cub fan, you assumed that:

• A. Your team would find a dramatic way to lose the World Series, and
• B. What more dramatic way than at the hands of a kid who dreamed of playing for the Cubs?

That didn’t happen – although Kipnis did bat .290 with two home runs in that Series. Now, at age 32 and what appears to be the tail end of his big league career – Kipnis gets a chance to play as a Cub at Wrigley Field, having signed a $1 million minor-league deal.

There are problems with the fairy tale ending Cubs fans may be thinking about. The biggest is that Kipnis no longer appears to be Kipnis. Offensively, his numbers have steadily declined since 2015, when he batted .303, was an All-Star and got MVP support. Since then Kipnis’ OPS+ has tracked downward from 120 to 109, then to 81, then 90 and 84 in 2019.

Injuries sidelined him in 2017 and again last year, although the hamate fracture that cost him 41 games last year should be fully healed.

Still, Kipnis hit just .245 in 2019 with a .305 on-base average and hasn’t topped .280 since 2015. Do the Cubs really need another .245 hitter who can’t take a walk? He’s also been sub-par with his glove, producing negative defensive runs saved numbers at second for each of the past three seasons.

Kipnis, then, has to prove to Ross that he is over his recent problems or his stay in camp may end when bags are packed. The Cubs obviously think that might happen, or they wouldn’t have seen any point in giving him a look.

Likelihood of Kipnis as the opening day starter at second base: 10 percent.

Chicago Cubs: For the Cubbies, it’s “who’s on second?”

Mr. X

There is one final option: None of the above.

Two scenarios bring this option into play. The first is the presence of Ian Happ on the roster. Although currently envisioned as a platoon option with Albert Almora in center field, that approach isn’t ideal for either player’s development.  Happ has experience at second base: he started nine games there last season and 37 since his 2017 callup.

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The Chicago Cubs sentenced Happ to the minors last spring and he languished there until his late-July recall. He hit. 264 with 11 home runs the rest of the season, renewing the Cubs hopes that he can be counted on this year.

If Almora and Happ both have strong springs, Ross could elect to slot Happ in at second, particularly if none of the other options look appealing.

The second scenario involves the potential trade of Bryant, particularly if it brings a major league-ready second base candidate back in return. In that scenario, the returnee fills the void at second, Bote slots in at third, Hoerner ships to Triple-A, Kipnis flunks out and who knows what becomes of Descalso.

The variant on that scenario kicks in if, rather than a second baseman, Bryant fetches a major league-ready third base prospect. Then Bode locks in at second.

Likelihood of somebody else as the opening day second baseman: 14 percent.