MLB win totals: NL West over or under according to Vegas
Caesars Sports Book has posted the 2020 MLB win totals. Today, we’ll analyze each NL West team’s lean towards the over/under.
We’re going division by division predicting the over or under on MLB win totals. The recently released list from Caesars Sportsbook is our reference for all 30 teams. We’ve covered the American League West, Central, and East. Now it’s the National League’s turn. Let’s start with the NL West.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win Total: 99
Prediction: Over
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Again, we’re going off Caesars’ totals from last month, which pins the Dodgers at 99 wins. That number has certainly gone up since L.A. acquired Mookie Betts and David Price a couple of days ago. Regardless, the Dodgers are the clear heavyweights of the NL and the long-shot favorites to represent the league in the World Series.
Their lineup is remarkably talented and seasoned. Nearly every player on the Dodgers’ projected roster has reached some level of the postseason. Of course, it helps that the organization has participated in two of the last three World Series. They’ll have a 2019 MVP and a 2018 MVP atop their batting order, and plenty of proven bats to follow.
A rotation consisting of Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urias, and Alex Wood undoubtedly adds to the intimidation.
100 wins should be a breeze for The Boys in Blue. All they’ll have to do is go out and play with free minds, void of lofty expectations. They’re not going to get much push-back from the rest of the NL West, so that’s a start.
MLB win totals: NL West over or under according to Vegas
Arizona Diamondbacks
Win Total: 83
Prediction: Over
The D’Backs may hide in the Dodgers’ giant shadow, but that doesn’t take away from their entertaining brand of baseball. Arizona scored the 6th most runs in the NL last year and recorded the 7th best ERA. They fell just short of a wild card berth, marking an impressive season, especially considering the sale of their ace, Zack Greinke, in July.
There’s a new ace in town this year, as the Diamondbacks signed Madison Bumgarner to a five-year contract. The superstar southpaw should replace Greinke in fine fashion, with his arm and his bat. MadBum did allow home runs at a 1.3/nine-inning rate with the Giants in 2019, which is high for an Oracle Park resident. He’ll need to keep the ball in the yard at far-less-pitcher-friendly Chase Field.
It’s the rest of the rotation that will truly factor into the win total, however. What kind of seasons will the Diamondbacks get from Robbie Ray and Mike Leake, each of whom performed very inconsistently a year ago. Can Merrill Kelly hold is own? If not, can Zac Gallen step up?
This team is in great shape offensively and defensively. Their outfield is stellar with David Peralta and the additions of Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun. You’d have to expect 1B Christian Walker and C Carson Kelly to keep improving with time, and follow-up dominant campaigns from Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar would be much appreciated by the organization.
I believe this is a better team than last year’s version. Thus, I believe the Diamondbacks will win more than 83 games in 2020.
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San Francisco Giants
Win Total: 71
Prediction: Over
The Bruce Bochy era is over. Gabe Kapler now takes command of a franchise that has seen far better days. But there’s always something to the Giants that elevates them beyond expectation. They surprised everyone last year by finishing third in the NL West and keeping within range of a wild card berth. We’ll see if Kapler can sustain the overachiever custom.
San Francisco’s roster doesn’t scream overachiever. Players are either really old or really young. They don’t have much power, nor do they have much depth. 2019 saw a -95 win differential plus a home record 11 games below .500.
The fate of their 2020 season falls in the grasp of their vets. What do Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, and Johnny Cueto have left in the tank? Hunter Pence is the only one of that bunch that excited with the bat last season, and he was playing for the Texas Rangers. Longoria hit well; however, Posey, Crawford, and Belt had very underwhelming years.
Don’t expect much from the Giants this go around, but do expect more than 71 wins. They’ll find a way.
MLB win totals: NL West over or under according to Vegas
Colorado Rockies
Win Total: 74
Prediction: Under
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Same story, different year for the Rockies. They’ll hit, but they won’t pitch. We’re talking about a team that had the worst ERA in the National League in 2019. And they plan on presenting the same bunch of pitchers in 2020!
There is still a chance Colorado trades premier third baseman Nolan Arenado before the start of the regular season. Consider their season done before it starts if they do. So much pressure will fall on their offense day in and day out; they can’t afford coinciding poor games from their core of Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, and Daniel Murphy.
The Rockies have a tremendous set-up/closer combination if they’re able to get to it. They ranked 21st in MLB last season with only 52 save opportunities.
This will be a year to forget for Rockies fans. Take the under 74.
San Diego Padres
Win Total: 83
Prediction: Under
Caesars expects the Padres to win 12 more games than last year. San Diego added Tommy Pham, Jurickson Profar, and Trent Grisham to their offense. They also added Zach Davies and Garrett Richards (returning from Tommy John) to their rotation, and Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan to their bullpen.
Their rotation is quite inexperienced aside from Davies. Expectations are very high for 24-year-old pitcher Chris Paddack. They are also expecting second-year pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Joey Lucchesi to carry a significant load.
It’s difficult to say whether the Padres’ offense will be good, average, or bad. They have upside with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Eric Hosmer, but what will they get out of Pham, Profar, and Wil Myers?
My gut says San Diego will have a tough time scoring runs. I also think they will play a ton of close games, which plays favorably thanks to their outstanding bullpen. Kirby Yates was the top closer in MLB in 2019, Craig Stammen and Andres Munoz are coming off solid seasons, and Pomeranz and Pagan are set for success in their new uniforms.
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If I were managing the Padres, I’d strongly consider trying the “opener” strategy that the Tampa Bay Rays have popularized. They’ll limit their young arms and play to their strong bullpen.
This is a very tough call, but I think the San Diego Padres come just shy of 83 wins.