Phillies: Healthy mysteries ahead for 2020’s NL East

Even before spring training ends, the Phillies and their three National League East rivals may –health-wise– be short a piece or more on Opening Day, but general manager Matt Klentak and his contemporaries can’t seamlessly cover every absence.

Breaks, good and bad:

National publications and many fans are expecting the same finish as 2019: the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. Unfortunately, the third and fourth teams had the most debilitating injuries in ’19. And, yes, good health will again be the deciding factor in the NL East.

IN OTHER WORDS:    “It is unwise to be too sure of one’s own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err.” – Mahatma Gandhi

Since position players have mostly reported, news is surfacing about injuries suffered during the offseason. To illustrate, the Braves will be without Cole Hamels for most –if not all– of camp due to shoulder irritation. And he won’t be the only star who could open ’20 on the IL (injured list).

In mid-April. Atlanta lost their closer before moving him to the American League. Also, it affected their pen for their entire 162 despite acquiring three relievers in July. Plus they were without a shortstop for one month and a corner outfielder for six weeks. Otherwise, they had the usual 10-day IL stints here and there.

Washington had two first sackers on the IL for four months total: One was their five-hole bat, and the other was his backup. However, the critical missing piece was their shortstop and two-slot bat exiting during their first April contest with a broken right index finger. He lost six weeks.

In ’19, the Mets were nearly without their slugging left fielder and a super utility man. Plus they were without two outfielders for five months total and their veteran second baseman for eight weeks with three trips to the IL. Basically, their pitchers were intact for the whole 162 with occasional 10-day IL stints.

The Fightins had three late-inning firemen missing roughly the entire campaign: They worked a total of 16 2/3 frames. Meanwhile, three other setup men were out for 10.5 months out of 18 possible. And one starter lost two months after probably working with bone spurs for six weeks.

While the pitching injuries were enough to eliminate them from a wild-card shot, the red pinstripes also lost their leadoff man for four months, their starting center fielder for four months (suspension), and two replacement left fielders for eight weeks. Plus they had the normal 10-day trips to the IL during the year.

Braves and Nationals:       

While the Phillies suffered through 40.5 months with missing pieces, the Braves were without three players for four months. However, they swapped their injured closer to the Seattle Mariners on May 20 for an ineffective –but healthy– reliever as part of the AL franchise’s salary dumps in ’19.

Even though Atlanta had picked up three back end relievers in July, they still struggled. Basically, the former AL closer they acquired had good stats for a last-place club under no pressure. So the Braves spent $40 million this winter for the top fireman in the free-agent market.

For 2019, shortstop Dansby Swanson hit .251 with 17 homers and 65 RBIs despite being out for a month. And Nick Markakis despite losing six weeks batted .285 with nine home runs and 61 RBIs. Ergo, they survived the four missing months and their questionable relief corps.

Braves IL:

• Vizcaino: 1.5 months (traded only due to injury).
• Markakis: 1.5 months.
• Swanson: 1 month.
• Total: 4 months.

Nationals IL:

• Zimmerman: 3.5 months.
• Turner: 1.5 months.
• Total: 5 months.

The Nats were 17-22 without Trea Turner and 76-47 with him in the two hole partly because he averaged .298 with 19 bombs and 57 RBIs. Unfortunately, Washington’s offense couldn’t save them from the worst bullpen in the majors with a 5.66 ERA: 30th to the Phils’ 4.36 ERA despite seven key injuries. They were 16th!

On the diamond’s right side, Ryan Zimmerman only played 10 weeks to Turner’s 4.5 months. But the aging star hit .257 with six long balls and 27 RBIs, plus he is back for another full summer in 2020 as well. So, will he be in the heart of the lineup again?

Phillies and Mets:     

While four outfielders missed 10 months for the Phillies, the Metropolitans lost 19 months from five position players. For instance, first sacker Dominic Smith manning left field was out for eight weeks but otherwise averaged .282 with 11 homers and 25 RBIs. Ergo, a recoverable absence.

Outfielder Brandon Nimmo lost a half season and batted .221 with eight bombs and 29 RBIs. But although his home runs and RBIs were roughly half of his 2018 numbers, his average fell from .263 to .221 due most likely to being out.

Aging veteran Cano had three stints on the IL for eight weeks total and hit .256 with 13 long balls and 39 RBIs for the other four months. As for Cespedes and Lowrie, they missed the entire campaign, although Lowrie had nine plate appearances in September.

Mets IL:

• Cespedes: 6 months.
• Lowrie: 6 months.
• Nimmo: 3 months.
• Smith: 2 months.
• Cano: 2 months.
• Total: 19 months.

Phillies position players IL+:

• McCutchen: 4 months.
• Herrera: 4 months (suspension)
• Bruce (1.5 months) and Dickerson: 2 months for both.
• Total: 10 of 40.5 overall months.

The Fightins were 33-26 before Andrew McCutchen‘s season-ending injury and 48-55 thereafter. And even though the left fielder missed four months, he averaged .256 with 10 homers and 29 RBIs, which is a third of 30 home runs and 87 RBIs.

Klentak had acquired Jay Bruce to be the left-handed bat off the bench, but he lost 1.5  of four months. However, he batted .221 with 12 bombs and 31 RBIs during his roughly 10 weeks here. And his replacement Dickerson was also on the IL for two of his eight weeks, plus Herrera’s suspension absence was four months.

Phillies hurlers:

Although four outfielders missed 10 months, seven Phillies pitchers had 30.5 months of absence. And Jake Arrieta was the only starter in the group, but he was on the IL for only two months. However, he likely worked through bone spurs (elbow) for six weeks prior to his IL stint.

Despite missing a half season, Adam Morgan was first with 19 holds and 36 acceptable outings out of 40 total: 90 percent. Seranthony Dominguez only made 27 appearances in the first two months: 20 were acceptable for 74.1 percent. Meanwhile, Neshek lost 3.5 months and had only 19 outings.

Phillies pitchers IL:

• Robertson: 6 months.
• Hunter: 6 months.
• Arano: 6 months.
• Dominguez: 4 months.
• Neshek: 3.5 months.
• Morgan: 3 months.
• Arrieta: 2 months.
• Total: 30.5 months.

Many fans were unhappy with the pen, but David Robertson, Tommy Hunter and Arano pitched a total of 16 2/3 innings combined. Basically, they lost the entire summer, but all three may be back in ’20. And while Hunter and Arano will open the 162 with the Phils, Robertson is a stretch-drive possibility.

To sum up, the Braves lost four months to the Nationals’ five months and the Mets’ 19 months for a tally of 28, while the red pinstripes missed 40.5 months. But what are poor substitutes for a managing partner, a president, a GM, a skipper, his coaching staff, or other scapegoats? Injuries!