Houston Astros: an unusual sportsbook’s prop bet

A sportsbook has finally rolled out a 2020 bet on Houston Astros players getting plunked for their cheating scandal.

In case you were looking on things to bet in MLB beyond win totals and division winners, a sportsbook is now offering a prop bet on which Houston Astros hitter will get plunked the most. The four selections are…

• Alex Bregman: EVEN
• George Springer: +200
• Jose Altuve: +300
• Carlos Correa: +350

Honestly, I would have expected Altuve to be number two or the co-favorite since he and Bregman have been at the center of this whole fiasco. You have to assume Altuve is getting longer odds because he is one of the smallest targets in baseball.

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Since the Astros aren’t going to have their magic trash can anymore, they may be more likely to lean into pitches in 2020.

The Astros and manager Dusty Baker have already appealed to the league to protect the team’s hitters. Umpires are going to be clearly aware of the bullseye on Astros’ hitters and if a pitcher accidentally lets one fly, he could get ejected just like that.

Especially if it’s a starting pitcher, that could throw an opposing team’s entire pitch plan for a series out of whack.

Since there is going to be plenty intrigue on HBPs this season so a baseline of HBPs seems necessary. Last season, the Mets led the league in HBPs with 95 while the Astros were 16th at 66. It seems safe to assume that number will be much higher in 2020 given potential retaliation and the Astros leveraging HBPs as a strategic advantage.

Player wise, the top three batters by HBP were Anthony Rizzo (27), Victor Robles (25), and Jeff McNeil (21). For the Astros last season, the only hitter in double digits was the now-departed Robinson Chirinos. Bregman was close with 9 HBPs, Springer had six, while Altuve and Correa only combined for 5.

Even without considering potential retaliation, that’s why the odds are the way they are. Bregman is the right bet for this since he will probably be in double-digit HBPs and the fact that he played in the most games of any Astro at 156. Compare that to 122 for Springer, 124 for Altuve, and 75 for Correa.

The Houston Astros cheating scandal isn’t going away any time soon as the Astros and Rob Manfred continue to botch something new every time they open their mouth. For all the scorned betters who lost money because of the Astros one way or another, this bet seems like the perfect gift of reconciliation.