MLB win totals: NL Central over or under according to Vegas

Milwaukee Brewers

Win Total: 83.5

Prediction: Over

The Brew Crew will undergo a slight revamp in 2020. They lost a lot of starting pitching, including Zach Davies, Gio Gonzalez, Jhoulys Chacin, and Chase Anderson. But I view that as perhaps a good thing, as several fresh, anxious pitchers will get the chance to take on greater roles.

Brandon Woodruff is listed as the Brewers’ ace. The 27-year-old went 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 2019. Next up is Adrian Houser, who clearly has the stuff, as evidenced by his 1.47 ERA out of the pen in 17 appearances last year. He struggled to a 4.57 ERA in 18 starts, however, and averaged just four innings per start. There’s also potential in 24-year-old southpaw Eric Lauer, 23-year-old righty Freddy Peralta, and 25-year-old righty Corbin Burnes.

With a nice mix of starters and relievers, there’s a good chance Milwaukee puts forth a formidable staff this season. Just get the ball to all-star closer Josh Hader to help add to the win column.

Offensively, the Brewers lost Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal, but added Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez, each coming off impressive 2019 campaigns. With Christian Yelich leading the way, Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun consistently producing, and Keston Hiura up and coming, Milwaukee should have no trouble scoring runs. Take the over 83.5.

Chicago Cubs

Win Total: 86

Prediction: Over

Like the Cardinals, the Cubs had a very “meh” offseason. Cole Hamels signed with the Atlanta Braves and short-term acquisition Nicholas Castellanos joined the rival Cincinnati Reds. Other than those two, Chicago maintained just about every notable player from a season ago. Many experts seem down on the Cubs, though I am not one of them.

They certainly underwhelmed in ’19, but the talent remains in ’20. Last year’s offense ranked in the top 10 in MLB in home runs, OPS, OBP, and runs scored. It’s hard to believe a squad with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras finished third in the NL Central. That is a forceful bunch that should give every opposing pitcher a headache.

Expect solid seasons from all of the above, and expect added depth in the batting order with Nico Hoerner taking over at second base. Hoerner is known as an outstanding contact hitter, something the Cubs desperately need in a strikeout-heavy lineup. If the Cubs can finally get consistency out of either Ian Happ or Albert Almora Jr., they could produce a relentless 1-8.

The make-or-break players in my opinion are starting pitcher Yu Darvish and closer Craig Kimbrel. Darvish always has trouble finding a rhythm to start a season. In 2019, his April ERA was 5.02, his May ERA 5.01, and his June ERA 4.91. He then closed the year with a 2.93 July ERA, a 3.45 August ERA, and a 2.39 September ERA. Chicago needs excellence from Darvish from the get-go in 2020. They need at least 13 wins out of him.

We all know what Kimbrel is capable of. 346 career saves to his name, the flame-throwing right-hander didn’t find a team until the end of June last year. He was rusty, as indicated by his 6.53 ERA over 23 appearances. Chicago’s bullpen is already iffy. A vintage, full-fledged season from Kimbrel is an absolute must.

I peg the Cubbies to win over 90 games.

Cincinnati Reds

Win Total: 83.5

Prediction: Under

The Reds are on their way up, but they’re not yet good enough to threaten a division title. Though, the question here is are they good enough to win 84+ games?

Their offense was poor last year, so they did right by signing Nicholas Castellanos and Mike Moustakas this offseason. Those are two veteran hitters who have plenty of slugging ability. Each is, however, a defensive liability.

Pitching was Cincinnati’s bread and butter a season ago. Their staff ranked 8th in MLB with a collective 4.18 ERA and recorded the 5th best BAA (Batting Average Against) of .235. Luis Castillo led the way with 15 wins and a 3.40 ERA, and Sonny Gray managed 11 wins from his 2.87 ERA. Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley are expected to fill out the rotation in 2020.

Castillo and Gray must prove that 2019 was not a fluke year. Also, Bauer is a loose cannon (literally), Miley had stretches in which he couldn’t get a batter out last season, and Cincinnati’s relief unit is coming off a year in which it posted the third worst save percentage in baseball (45%).

I don’t trust the Reds, at least not yet. It’s their job to prove me and all other doubters wrong this go around. For now, however, I suggest betting the under 83.5. I see this club struggling with the basics such as making routine plays in the field and finding ways to score runs in small-ball fashion.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Win Total: 70.5

Prediction: Under

The Pirates ranked 27th in baseball with 163 home runs in 2019. They ranked 21st with 758 runs scored. Starling Marte, now a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, was Pittsburgh’s second best power hitter and second best run producer. After an idle offseason, there’s no doubt this team is going to have a devil of a time scoring runs.

Maybe the Pirates can get something out of their pitching? Starter Joe Musgrove has flashes of dominance, though a 4.44 ERA alongside a losing record isn’t exactly what a team wants out of its ace. 31-year-old Chris Archer, once one of the top starters in the game, has now pitched back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 4.30. Pittsburgh is expecting its top pitching prospect in Mitch Keller to break camp with the big league club. Keller posted a 3.56 ERA and  a .235 opponents batting average over 19 starts at Triple-A last year.

A few good stories may come out of Pittsburgh this season, but the reality is they are seriously outmatched by their divisional opponents and the rest of the league, for that matter. I don’t see the Pirates winning 70 games in 2020.