MLB win totals: NL Central over or under according to Vegas

Cincinnati Reds

Win Total: 83.5

Prediction: Under

The Reds are on their way up, but they’re not yet good enough to threaten a division title. Though, the question here is are they good enough to win 84+ games?

Their offense was poor last year, so they did right by signing Nicholas Castellanos and Mike Moustakas this offseason. Those are two veteran hitters who have plenty of slugging ability. Each is, however, a defensive liability.

Pitching was Cincinnati’s bread and butter a season ago. Their staff ranked 8th in MLB with a collective 4.18 ERA and recorded the 5th best BAA (Batting Average Against) of .235. Luis Castillo led the way with 15 wins and a 3.40 ERA, and Sonny Gray managed 11 wins from his 2.87 ERA. Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley are expected to fill out the rotation in 2020.

Castillo and Gray must prove that 2019 was not a fluke year. Also, Bauer is a loose cannon (literally), Miley had stretches in which he couldn’t get a batter out last season, and Cincinnati’s relief unit is coming off a year in which it posted the third worst save percentage in baseball (45%).

I don’t trust the Reds, at least not yet. It’s their job to prove me and all other doubters wrong this go around. For now, however, I suggest betting the under 83.5. I see this club struggling with the basics such as making routine plays in the field and finding ways to score runs in small-ball fashion.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Win Total: 70.5

Prediction: Under

The Pirates ranked 27th in baseball with 163 home runs in 2019. They ranked 21st with 758 runs scored. Starling Marte, now a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, was Pittsburgh’s second best power hitter and second best run producer. After an idle offseason, there’s no doubt this team is going to have a devil of a time scoring runs.

Maybe the Pirates can get something out of their pitching? Starter Joe Musgrove has flashes of dominance, though a 4.44 ERA alongside a losing record isn’t exactly what a team wants out of its ace. 31-year-old Chris Archer, once one of the top starters in the game, has now pitched back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 4.30. Pittsburgh is expecting its top pitching prospect in Mitch Keller to break camp with the big league club. Keller posted a 3.56 ERA and  a .235 opponents batting average over 19 starts at Triple-A last year.

A few good stories may come out of Pittsburgh this season, but the reality is they are seriously outmatched by their divisional opponents and the rest of the league, for that matter. I don’t see the Pirates winning 70 games in 2020.