Chicago Cubs: The pluses and minuses of Kris Bryant batting leadoff
By Bill Felber
Chicago Cubs: The pluses and minuses of Kris Bryant batting leadoff
Rickey Henderson sets the standard
The golden era of the leadoff hitter wasn’t all that long ago. In the 1980s, most teams sweated the development of one or more players who excelled at precisely the three leadoff-related skills outlined earlier in this piece.
And nobody did it better, of course, than Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson. That means setting a standard for leadoff performance begins with calculating Henderson’s leadoff score, and using that as an ideal.
From his first full season in 1980 through 1993, here’s Henderson’s season-by-season “success percentage” for reaching second base unaided:
1980: .607
1981: .584
1982: .654
1983: .654
1984 .588
1985: .628
1986: .573
1987: .600
1988: .596
1989: .586
1990: .656
1991: .563
1992: .594
1993: .593
Henderson obviously is the gold standard for leadoff hitters. It’s not realistic to ask even a good leadoff hitter to hit .600 on this combined scale. But it’s worth noting that as good as Henderson was, he wasn’t alone. In 1983, Montreal’s Tim Raines‘ on the same scale was .589. The closest modern leadoff comparison to Henderson, Derek Jeter, scored .558 in 1999 and still registered as high as .512 toward the end of his career in 2009.
What we want from a leadoff hitter, then, is a player who – combining on-base average, extra-base average and stolen bases, can score as high up into the .500s as possible.
As noted, modern managers tend to de-emphasize the components of this formula. The World Series contestants, the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros, most often used Trea Turner and George Springer in the leadoff spots. Turner’s score on this scale was .522, Springer’s was .506.