Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals for 2020

Despite surface-like predictions, the Phillies could just as easily win the National League East as finish fourth again, even though general manager Matt Klentak signed a two-slot hurler and a left-side bat with power for the five hole.

One year after:   

Since every Philadelphia Phillies season has surprises, disappointments, injuries, and question marks before and during each campaign, no one can guarantee results before spring training. Yes, fans can be overly optimistic or downright pessimistic with or without logic. But forecasts are unpredictable!

IN OTHER WORDS:    “Perhaps the safest prediction we can make about the future is that it will surprise us.” – George Leonard

For ’20, organizations have new players, lost top talent to other franchises, and/or have injured regulars before March 1. So, no club will automatically succeed or fail regardless of 2019’s standings and/or statistics. To me, though, no local has publicly backed up their ironclad prediction with one cent.

The Washington Nationals are now without their biggest offensive weapon from ’19, and they haven’t picked up a replacement for the heart of their order. Meanwhile, national publications foresee a three-peat in the NL East by the Atlanta Braves with the Nats again in the wild-card hunt.

The Nats will cope anew with more pitching after another slugger departed. Unlike last summer, however, they have signed setup man Will Harris to join the three relievers acquired in July. Basically, preventing runs is their plan to offset decreased run production, but in ’19 they inked a top free-agent starter, not an aging reliever.

The Fightins signed Zack Wheeler to form a one-two punch and left-handed-bat Didi Gregorius to offset a right-heavy lineup. Unfortunately, the fireman they had bid on without qualms went elsewhere. But, regardless, the Phils’ offer exceeded the CBT (competitive-balance threshold) by $4-7 million.

Because the arbitration expenses for their third and second  basemen were in their third and fourth 162s respectively, Klentak couldn’t find another team to trade with. And other clubs didn’t want the cost either and only signed them at roughly half their arb estimate. Moreover, Philly demoted their suspended outfielder.

While the red pinstripes are currently at an estimated $203.93 million AAV (average annual value), they expect to acquire a piece or two and exceed the CBT by $17-20 million. As for Washington, they are under the $208 million AAV at $197.1 million AAV.

Nationals:   

While the Phillies faithful bemoan their hot-corner situation with Scott Kingery or Jean Segura, the Nationals did not replace the bat or glove of Anthony Rendon. Realistically, the defending champs will rely on Asdrubal Cabrera or another infielder on the 25-man roster. Don’t expect a miracle!

The Nats inked Starlin Castro for $12 million total for two seasons as one possible replacement after averaging .270 with 22 homers and 86 RBIs. Yes, he can also handle short and the keystone besides third base, but he probably won’t bat cleanup either.

Nationals added hitting:

• Castro, almost 30: 162 Gms., 676 PA, a .270 Avg., a .300 OBP, 22 HR, 86 RBI, a .736 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.

Nationals hitting deducted:

• Rendon, 29.5: 146 Gms., 646 PA, a .319 Avg., a .412 OBP, 34 HR, 126 RBI, a 1.010 OPS and a 7.0 fWAR.

Nationals hitting:

• Cabrera, 34: 131 Gms., 514 PA, a .260 Avg., a .342 OBP, 18 HR, 91 RBI, a .783 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.
  Nationals: 38 Gms., 124 AB, a .323 Avg., a .404 OBP, 6 HR, 40 RBI and a .969 OPS.

Cabrera, a July pickup, is the likely hot-corner option, and he re-upped for $2.5 million. In ’19, he hit .260 with 18 home runs and 91 RBIs, but he and Castro won’t be playing as many games in ’20. And although Cabrera is working to procure another contract, it’s doubtful he’ll perform at his stretch-drive level for an entire 162.

Like 2019, Washington will compensate with pitching to win with less offense, but one aging setup man and three trade-deadline holdovers probably won’t be enough. Moreover, Harris is unlikely to have another career year with a 1.50 ERA because he recorded a 3.49 ERA (2018) and a 2.98 ERA (2017).

Nationals added pitching:

• Harris, 35.5: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.

Nationals pitching: 

Hudson, 32.5:

• Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
  Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.

Strickland, 31.5:

• Total: 28 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 5.55 ERA, 2 Saves, 10 Holds, a -0.4 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.
  Nationals: 24 Gms., 21 Inn., a 5.14 ERA, 10 Holds and a 1.33 WHIP.

*Elias, 31.5:

• Total:  48 Gms., 50 Inn., a 3.96 ERA, 14 Saves, 2 Holds, 3 BS, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.28 WHIP.
  Nationals: 4 Gms., 3 Inn., a 9.00 ERA, 1 Hold and a 2.00 WHIP.
  * Southpaw.

Through July, the Nationals closed with Doolittle –their only effective bullpen weapon– and they occasionally extended their formidable starters into that problematic eighth inning. Eventually, Doolittle went on the IL (injured list) due to a heavy workload.

Daniel Hudson unexpectedly surprised the Nats by handling the eighth and ninth innings with Doolittle on the IL. However, they hesitantly guaranteed a two-summer deal for the right-hander, so repeated success is questionable. But an ineffective Strickland and an injured Elias will also return after their July swaps.

Phillies:     

After suffering through an injury-plagued campaign, the Phillies will please many fans because players will enjoy better health and coaching. No one looks good losing, right? In fact, manager Joe Girardi and his staff have already received compliments from Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto.

While many locals anticipated serious October baseball with Bryce Harper‘s signing, 2020 is the opposite. However, key pieces missed significant time and/or inexperienced and analytical coaching to produce a disappointing squad. But the Fightins addressed those controllable issues and envision better health.

When top franchises only sign one big-ticket star before camp, criticizing your GM alone for not inking two is a “nearsighted” view. Notice Klentak signed the third best starter for $118 million, not $245 million or $324 million. And since another quality arm was available for the three slot, he didn’t add an aging or stopgap hurler.

Phillies added pitching:

• Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies added hitting:

• *Gregorius, 30: 82 Gms., 344 PA, a .238 Avg., a .276 OBP, 16 HR, 61 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
  * Injury-riddled season.

Some fans might believe Gregorius would be a bargain if he signed for $14 million after producing 2018’s numbers: .268, 27 bombs and 86 RBIs. No, that would be a steal! The front office, meantime, feels a good buy involves some risk, and Gregorius could receive multi-season offers of $20 million per 162 with those stats.

Besides, a one-summer pact sets up Gregorius for a big payday, and the red pinstripes have ’20 for Alec Bohm to develop through August. As for righty Spencer Howard, he’s only worked 30 2/3 innings at Double-A, but he could enter the picture in some fashion after the MiLB campaign ends.

Decisions for July:

The tax rate for the Nationals and Phillies will be 20 percent for a first penalty (30 percent for a second consecutive occurrence). And considering the four-team race could come down to the wire, both will pay the tax for October baseball. Basically, “break glass in case of fire” time means they even have a legit shot for the wild card.

Free agency has changed the situation in Washington, and they now have a weaker 25-man roster that can’t afford injuries. And although their rotation and offense are strong enough to capture the divisional pennant, their late-game outcomes will depend on Harris and Hudson getting the ball to Doolittle.

The Fightins were ready to surpass the CBT in December above the then $205 million AAV or more depending on the arbitration rulings for Realmuto and Neris if Betances accepted their fair $7 million proposal to increase their AAV to $212-215 million. Moreover, the 2020 free agent hasn’t had closing success.

Expensive acquisitions are not the only measurement of an organization’s commitment to making the postseason or their desire to be competitive. Unfortunately, many locals expect spending in December and July regardless of the standings, the players’ health, the competition and other factors.

Despite these considerations, some must see it to believe it, while others call it impossible for the reason du jour. But the Phils faithful fall into many categories: doubting Thomases, curmudgeons, or fans with a healthy optimism like me who don’t give up before pitch one. Which one are you?