MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

Washington Nationals

Win total: 89.5

Prediction: Over

There doesn’t seem to be much belief that the Nationals have another World Series run in them. They lose Anthony Rendon and suddenly they’re no longer top of mind. This is absolutely a team to fear in 2020.

First off, they signed superstar Stephen Strasburg to a 7-year/$245 million contract this offseason. He’ll follow superstar Max Scherzer to maintain perhaps the best one-two rotation punch in all of baseball. Patrick Corbin is a terrific number three in the rotation and Anibal Sanchez is a formidable number four. They’ll use spring training to determine a deserving number five, although right-hander Joe Ross seems to have a head start.

The Nats will turn heads offensively, even without Rendon. Their lineup consists of many great contact hitters and splashes of power. Expect Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles to take steps forward, and I like the platoon of Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Thames at first base.

Carter Kieboom, Washington’s #1 prospect, is projected to takeover the hot corner. While he is not expected to fill the shoes of Rendon, he is a key cog in the club’s path to success. Kieboom holds the reputation of a pure hitter. It would be a major win for the Nationals if he could work his way into the heart of the lineup in 2020. They need some guaranteed pop on top of Soto.

Furthermore, their big-gun relievers from the postseason are back. Sean Doolittle, Tanner Rainey, and Daniel Hudson should pitch with serious confidence this year. It’s also worth nothing that the Nats signed reliever Will Harris this offseason. Harris has accumulated a 2.84 ERA over eight big league seasons.

A healthy rotation should swiftly lead the Nationals to 90+ wins. Do weigh on the side of caution, however, as they do lack depth.

New York Mets

Win total: 86.5

Prediction: Over

The Mets may be the toughest MLB team to predict. It seems like every year they have a ton of bright spots and a ton of dark spots. Last year’s bright spots were Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis. Last year’s dark spots were Noah Syndergaard (considering expectations), Edwin Diaz, and Jeurys Familia.

This team has the talent and the depth to win the NL East, and it’s going to take well over 87 wins to do so. It will be interesting to see what they can get out of starters Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. Both are capable of throwing the ball significantly better than they did a season ago. They definitely need more from Syndergaard, whose ERA climbed above 4.00 in 2019. He and DeGrom should challenge Scherzer and Strasburg as the top pitching duo in the NL.

The Mets should have a very balanced lineup split between right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. They’re returning basically the same offense that ranked 5th in the NL in home runs and 6th in batting average.

Though, they better get the bullpen figured out. Mets relievers combined for the 12th ranked ERA in the NL last year. There is plenty of ability within, so there’s certainly hope that the relief crew can improve this season.

The Mets will win more than 86 games.

MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

Philadelphia Phillies

Win total: 85.5

Prediction: Under

The Phillies finished 81-81 last year, 4th in the East. The addition of shortstop Didi Gregorius will push Scott Kingery to third base, and the addition of starting pitcher Zack Wheeler will push injury-prone Jake Arrieta back a slot in the rotation.

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There are many question marks with this bunch. Can Bryce Harper return to the MVP conversation? Is Rhys Hoskins more than an all-or-nothing hitter? Can Zack Wheeler handle a high-pressure starting role? What can the Phillies get out of the back of their starting rotation?

It reads cliché, but I believe Philadelphia’s success vastly depends on Harper. He is one of a handful of players in the game that can carry an offense, but he hasn’t done so in a couple of seasons. Mark the $330 million man for a .300 batting average and 130 RBI in 2020 and suddenly the Phillies are a serious contender. His production would impact the rest of a lineup that was rather pedestrian a season ago.

I think the Phillies will really teeter with that 85.5 total; though, I think they’ll fall just short in the end. Too much must go right for them to exceed the number.

Miami Marlins

Win total: 63.5

Prediction: Under

It’s very important for a team to be “good up the middle” in baseball. You want production offensively and defensively from your catcher, pitcher, second baseman, shortstop, and center fielder. The Marlins are not good up the middle.

Jorge Alfaro is worthy of the top catching spot on the Marlins’ depth chart, though he’s rather average compared to other big league backstops. Second baseman Isan Diaz hit just .173 in 179 at-bats last year. Shortstop Miguel Rojas hit .284 in nearly 500 ABs in 2019, but he hit only five home runs and drove in just 46 runs. And center fielder Lewis Brinson has yet to live up to his hype. The 6’3” speedster has compiled a .183/.238/.293 slash line over three sparse seasons.

Miami pitchers had their moments last year; however, the staff still finished with a 13th ranked ERA in the National League.

They won 57 games in 2019. I don’t see the Marlins doing much better in 2020. Take the under.