MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

Caesars Sports Book has posted the 2020 MLB win totals. Today, we’ll analyze each NL East team’s lean towards the over/under.

Spring training is officially underway, which means we’re one stage closer to the therapeutic start of the regular season. It won’t be long until your squad is playing purposeful baseball! In the meantime, you may want to see how your team projects. You may also want to place money on your team based on how you think they’ll fare in 2020.

Caesars Sports Book released season MLB win totals a month ago for all 30 clubs. We’ve gone division by division, predicting whether each club will win more games than Vegas expects, or fewer games. You’re witnessing the conclusion of a six-part series. So, read on to gain expert insight on the upcoming seasons for the Braves, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, and Marlins.

Atlanta Braves

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Win total: 92

Prediction: Under

The NL East was the only division in MLB last year to have one sub-.500 team. It was a tight division from the start and it bodes the same in 2020. The Braves are coming off a 97-win season, which won them the East. They excelled last year with a top 10 team ERA and a top 10 team batting average. Atlanta wasn’t necessarily elite in any one area of the game; however, they voided any blatant weakness.

They endured a fine offseason, adding impact players in LF Marcell Ozuna, SP Cole Hamels, reliever Will Smith, and C Travis d’Arnaud. Notable departures include 3B Josh Donaldson and SP Julio Teheran.

The Braves’ offense is built for sustainable success. They have MVP-caliber players in Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr., All-Star-caliber players in Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna, and vital depth players in Nick Markakis and Austin Riley. Atlanta scored the 7th most runs in MLB in 2019; I expect them to be on par with that ranking in 2020 as well.

Their bullpen is also in tremendous shape. They boast an array of veteran relievers, all of which seem to be extending the primes of their careers. This is a team that can withstand shortened outings from its starters.

Starting pitching is the area of concern. They’ll get quality outings from the seasoned arm of Cole Hamels, but who can they be sure of beyond him? Mike Foltynewicz‘s ERA rose nearly two points from his dominant 2018 campaign. Max Fried notched 17 wins last year, but he also posted a modest 113 ERA+ and a concerning .270 opponent’s batting average. Sean Newcomb has little starting experience and Kyle Wright has little big-league experience.

Can the Braves expect Mike Soroka, — 6th place finisher in Cy Young voting in ’19 — to pitch anywhere near as well in ’20? He’s a relatively soft thrower who must bring pinpoint command to the mound day in and day out. I think he’ll have a nice season, but nothing like last year.

The over on the Atlanta Braves is too risky. They’ll be in the thick of a wild card berth, but they won’t win more than 92 games.