MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

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Caesars Sports Book has posted the 2020 MLB win totals. Today, we’ll analyze each NL East team’s lean towards the over/under.

Spring training is officially underway, which means we’re one stage closer to the therapeutic start of the regular season. It won’t be long until your squad is playing purposeful baseball! In the meantime, you may want to see how your team projects. You may also want to place money on your team based on how you think they’ll fare in 2020.

Caesars Sports Book released season MLB win totals a month ago for all 30 clubs. We’ve gone division by division, predicting whether each club will win more games than Vegas expects, or fewer games. You’re witnessing the conclusion of a six-part series. So, read on to gain expert insight on the upcoming seasons for the Braves, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, and Marlins.

Atlanta Braves

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Win total: 92

Prediction: Under

The NL East was the only division in MLB last year to have one sub-.500 team. It was a tight division from the start and it bodes the same in 2020. The Braves are coming off a 97-win season, which won them the East. They excelled last year with a top 10 team ERA and a top 10 team batting average. Atlanta wasn’t necessarily elite in any one area of the game; however, they voided any blatant weakness.

They endured a fine offseason, adding impact players in LF Marcell Ozuna, SP Cole Hamels, reliever Will Smith, and C Travis d’Arnaud. Notable departures include 3B Josh Donaldson and SP Julio Teheran.

The Braves’ offense is built for sustainable success. They have MVP-caliber players in Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr., All-Star-caliber players in Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna, and vital depth players in Nick Markakis and Austin Riley. Atlanta scored the 7th most runs in MLB in 2019; I expect them to be on par with that ranking in 2020 as well.

Their bullpen is also in tremendous shape. They boast an array of veteran relievers, all of which seem to be extending the primes of their careers. This is a team that can withstand shortened outings from its starters.

Starting pitching is the area of concern. They’ll get quality outings from the seasoned arm of Cole Hamels, but who can they be sure of beyond him? Mike Foltynewicz‘s ERA rose nearly two points from his dominant 2018 campaign. Max Fried notched 17 wins last year, but he also posted a modest 113 ERA+ and a concerning .270 opponent’s batting average. Sean Newcomb has little starting experience and Kyle Wright has little big-league experience.

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Can the Braves expect Mike Soroka, — 6th place finisher in Cy Young voting in ’19 — to pitch anywhere near as well in ’20? He’s a relatively soft thrower who must bring pinpoint command to the mound day in and day out. I think he’ll have a nice season, but nothing like last year.

The over on the Atlanta Braves is too risky. They’ll be in the thick of a wild card berth, but they won’t win more than 92 games.

MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

Washington Nationals

Win total: 89.5

Prediction: Over

There doesn’t seem to be much belief that the Nationals have another World Series run in them. They lose Anthony Rendon and suddenly they’re no longer top of mind. This is absolutely a team to fear in 2020.

First off, they signed superstar Stephen Strasburg to a 7-year/$245 million contract this offseason. He’ll follow superstar Max Scherzer to maintain perhaps the best one-two rotation punch in all of baseball. Patrick Corbin is a terrific number three in the rotation and Anibal Sanchez is a formidable number four. They’ll use spring training to determine a deserving number five, although right-hander Joe Ross seems to have a head start.

The Nats will turn heads offensively, even without Rendon. Their lineup consists of many great contact hitters and splashes of power. Expect Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles to take steps forward, and I like the platoon of Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Thames at first base.

Carter Kieboom, Washington’s #1 prospect, is projected to takeover the hot corner. While he is not expected to fill the shoes of Rendon, he is a key cog in the club’s path to success. Kieboom holds the reputation of a pure hitter. It would be a major win for the Nationals if he could work his way into the heart of the lineup in 2020. They need some guaranteed pop on top of Soto.

Furthermore, their big-gun relievers from the postseason are back. Sean Doolittle, Tanner Rainey, and Daniel Hudson should pitch with serious confidence this year. It’s also worth nothing that the Nats signed reliever Will Harris this offseason. Harris has accumulated a 2.84 ERA over eight big league seasons.

A healthy rotation should swiftly lead the Nationals to 90+ wins. Do weigh on the side of caution, however, as they do lack depth.

Related Story. MLB win totals: NL West over/under according to Vegas. light

New York Mets

Win total: 86.5

Prediction: Over

The Mets may be the toughest MLB team to predict. It seems like every year they have a ton of bright spots and a ton of dark spots. Last year’s bright spots were Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis. Last year’s dark spots were Noah Syndergaard (considering expectations), Edwin Diaz, and Jeurys Familia.

This team has the talent and the depth to win the NL East, and it’s going to take well over 87 wins to do so. It will be interesting to see what they can get out of starters Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. Both are capable of throwing the ball significantly better than they did a season ago. They definitely need more from Syndergaard, whose ERA climbed above 4.00 in 2019. He and DeGrom should challenge Scherzer and Strasburg as the top pitching duo in the NL.

The Mets should have a very balanced lineup split between right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. They’re returning basically the same offense that ranked 5th in the NL in home runs and 6th in batting average.

Though, they better get the bullpen figured out. Mets relievers combined for the 12th ranked ERA in the NL last year. There is plenty of ability within, so there’s certainly hope that the relief crew can improve this season.

The Mets will win more than 86 games.

MLB win totals: NL East over or under according to Vegas

Philadelphia Phillies

Win total: 85.5

Prediction: Under

The Phillies finished 81-81 last year, 4th in the East. The addition of shortstop Didi Gregorius will push Scott Kingery to third base, and the addition of starting pitcher Zack Wheeler will push injury-prone Jake Arrieta back a slot in the rotation.

Miami Marlins

Win total: 63.5

Prediction: Under

It’s very important for a team to be “good up the middle” in baseball. You want production offensively and defensively from your catcher, pitcher, second baseman, shortstop, and center fielder. The Marlins are not good up the middle.

Jorge Alfaro is worthy of the top catching spot on the Marlins’ depth chart, though he’s rather average compared to other big league backstops. Second baseman Isan Diaz hit just .173 in 179 at-bats last year. Shortstop Miguel Rojas hit .284 in nearly 500 ABs in 2019, but he hit only five home runs and drove in just 46 runs. And center fielder Lewis Brinson has yet to live up to his hype. The 6’3” speedster has compiled a .183/.238/.293 slash line over three sparse seasons.

Next. Padres add Brian Dozier. dark

Miami pitchers had their moments last year; however, the staff still finished with a 13th ranked ERA in the National League.

They won 57 games in 2019. I don’t see the Marlins doing much better in 2020. Take the under.

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