MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering the 2020 season
Today, we’re going to take a closer look at the quarterback of the baseball field, the catchers. These are the top 10 MLB players who sit behind home plate.
It’s finally here! Baseball season is here, Spring Training and all its glory.
That means that Opening Day is around the corner and that means it’s time to look at PECOTA and Steamer and see where your favorite teams are projected to finish.
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But you also care about your favorite MLB players. After breakout seasons where do guys like Ketel Marte and Yoan Moncada rank? Where do sophomores like Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis end up? These will be answered in the coming weeks.
Today though, we start with the men behind the plate, the catchers. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the image of an ideal catcher change. Not only do we want framing and good game calling from our catchers, but now we want offense too. Not every catcher is a juggernaut as a hitter but you’re usually looking for at least average production to go with solid defense.
That isn’t to say defense doesn’t matter, because it absolutely does. And for some of these guys that is a lot of their production. We’re just saying that the perception is shifting.
At the top are a few guys who excel on both offense and defense and then it gets interesting at the bottom. So let’s get to it.
MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering 2020
10. Tyler Flowers, Atlanta Braves
The most impressive stat about Tyler Flowers that I can throw at you today is that he recorded 2.1 fWAR in just 85 games last season. No matter what the slash line that’s pretty impressive.
For reference in those 85 games, Flowers slashed .229/.319/.413 with 11 home runs. So where is the productions coming from?
Well, remember how I said defense still matters? Here’s your first example.
Flowers has always been an excellent framer, and in 2019 that didn’t change. Despite playing just about half the season, he saved 15 runs with his framing, good for fourth among all catchers. Again, he played half the season.
Now the problem here is that Flowers hasn’t played more than 100 games since 2015 when he was with the White Sox, and that’s why we saw the Braves bring in Travis D’Arnaud to be an insurance policy.
But still just two years ago in 2017 Tylers put up 4.5 fWAR slashing .281/.378/.445 so we know that if he could stay relatively healthy Flowers would probably be higher on this list. But he hasn’t and so he clocks in at #10 here.
9. Roberto Perez, Cleveland Indians
Another defense-first guy here with Roberto Perez. He did put up a slightly better slash line than Flowers, with .239/.321/.425 and 24 home runs.
But defense is the name of the game with Perez, and a big reason he came in with 3.0 fWAR in 2019. Guess who was one spot above Flowers on that “runs saved” list? Roberto Perez.
Cleveland’s catcher had never before played more than 73 games going into 2019, and he shattered that with 119 games behind the plate, which led to his more consistent bat and career highs pretty much across the board.
Going into 2020 we need to see Perez keep it up, he has a decent walk rate at 10% and makes hard contact more than 40% of the time. That being said he is already 31 so maybe not too much of a leap forward should be expected.
But defense usually doesn’t regress and either way, Perez will still be an asset behind the plate.
MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering 2020
8. Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
So the problem here obviously is that Will Smith has less than 200 plate appearances in his big league career. But in that short amount of time, he put up a .907 OPS and 15 homers.
Smith will be the opening day catcher this year so we’ll have a full season to properly evaluate him but the initial projections look good.
Smith made hard contact nearly 45% of the time while only hitting ground balls 29% of the time. The one concerning part of Smith’s time in the big leagues is his 9.2% walk rate and a 26.5% strikeout rate. However, his walk rate in the previous 62 games was 14.8% so that is some reason for optimism.
Perhaps the thing working most in Smith’s favor will be his protection in the Dodger lineup. In his 52 games with the Dodgers last year smith mostly hit in the middle of the lineup, so let’s assume he’ll hit anywhere from 2-5 again in 2020. That means either in front of or behind him Smith could have some combination of Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner and oh yea a guy named Mookie Betts.
If Smith can perform to even 80% of his production from 2019, he’ll be yet another threat in the Dodger lineup.
MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering 2020
7. Christian Vazquez, Boston Red Sox
It finally happened! After years of waiting Christian Vazquez finally broke out for the Boston Red Sox and became a viable offensive catcher. His defense always played but his offense was never good enough to even hold water, and so the Red Sox ended up going with Sandy Leon for most of the past few years with Vazquez in a complementary role.
But in 2019 we finally got the well-rounded catcher that the Red Sox have been touting forever, Vazquez slashed .276/.320/.477 while providing great defense saving 12 runs with his framing alone.
With Mookie Betts departed and the short-term future of the Red Sox up in the air, they would be set up much better if Vazquez can continue this breakout and continue being a threat at the plate. It would make their lineup more balanced and not so reliant on JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers at the top.
What changed with Vazquez is, and stop me if you heard this one before, he hit the ball harder and in the air more than he had previously in his career.
What’s concerning about Vazquez is that this is the first year he’s been an offensive threat so we have to see if it translates, but as long as he keeps hitting the ball hard he should be alright. Plus as stated previously defense doesn’t really erode.
6. Omar Narvaez, Milwaukee Brewers
Speaking of breakout seasons, Narvaez had one of his one for the Seattle Mariners, which prompted the Brewers to trade for him over the Winter.
While playing half his games in the cavern that is Safeco Field Narvaez hit .278/.353/.460 and hit a career-high 22 home runs. Admittedly his defense isn’t great but according to multiple reports Narvaez has been committed to working on his defense and becoming less of a liability.
The Brewers aren’t going to replace Yasmani Grandal completely but Narvaez isn’t a bad option, plus in the much more hitter-friendly park that is Miller Park his offensive numbers could even increase some.
Narvaez doesn’t have an astronomical strikeout rate of about 19% and a decent walk rate of 10% so he makes good contact. It is interesting that he hit 22 homers while only making hard contact about 22% of the time (thank you juiced balls!) but with his good bat-to-ball skills and far more protection than he ever had in Seattle Narvaez could take another step forward at the plate.
MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering 2020
5. Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins
It’s not often you have a breakout season at 29-years-old but damn did Mitch Garver make it happen. Garver had his first full season for the Twins in 2018, where he played 103 games and put up a .268/.335/.414 slash line with 7 homers. Fine, but not anything spectacular.
2019 was entirely different. Garver slashed .273/.365/.630 with 31 homers and 3.9 WAR (by Fangraphs measure).
So what prompted the breakout? Well everyone knows what happened with the baseballs this year, but that wasn’t all.
Garver started walking more, a clip over 11%, swung less and made contact more. Hard contact at that. In 2018 Garver made “hard contact” (ball left his bat at 95+ MPH) 47% of the time, up 7 percentage points from 2018.
It also wasn’t pure luck. Garver’s BABIP of .277 was 21 points lower than the league average.
It also helps to be hitting in a lineup where you’re protected by Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler and now Josh Donaldson. Expect Kepler to have another season well above average at the plate.
4. Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
After an atrocious 2018 where Sanchez hit just .186, he bounced back in 2019.
He still didn’t hit for much average at .232 but the power came back. Sanchez was a threat once more at the plate, hitting 34 homers and logging an OPS of .841 for the Yankees.
He still wasn’t very durable, appearing in just 106 games, but he made them count. With a fully healthy season, Sanchez could be a 50 homer threat. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen that yet.
Any guy who sends 34 baseballs into the stands while missing 56 games though, that’s a legitimate bat and with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and DJ Lemahieu around him Sanchez will have plenty of opportunities to mash in 2020.
MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering 2020
3. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
Despite all the rumors this Winter, Willson Contreras will open the season as a member of the Chicago Cubs. This is best for the Cubs because Contreras is 27 and just entering the prime of his career, and just hit a career-high 24 homers with a .888 OPS in just 105 games.
Contreras is also becoming one of the leaders of the Cubs, and he has the numbers that have backed it up. Willson was a threat in the lineup behind MVP candidate Javy Baez but without Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo for big chunks of the season.
His defense is also getting better, after logging a -5.5 in Fangraphs defensive leaderboard in 2018, Contreras was just a -0.3 in 2019.
With some better health from himself and some of his teammates, Contreras could have a true breakout season in 2020.
2. J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
This was a tough call.
Realmuto has been arguably the best catcher in baseball over the last three years, logging more than 4 WAR in each of those seasons and peaking at 5.7 in 2019. He also set career highs in homers, RBI and slugging percentage last year. We can look to the peripherals for this explanation. Realmuto finally got his hard-hit rate up above 40%, to 45.6% actually. and his soft contact fell below 15%.
Point is, he’s great and turns just 29 on March 18th.
Not only is Realmuto one of the best offensive catchers in the game, but he is also one of the best defensively, recording 10.5 runs saved through framing per Baseball Prospectus.
Realmuto will have a chance to make himself a boatload of money before hitting free agency following the 2020 season, as long as he can keep up this kind of production, which all signs point to him doing.
MLB Players: Top 10 catchers entering 2020
1. Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
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This was so close. I’m talking splitting hairs here. But the edge goes to Grandal at the end of the day. He clearly benefitted from hitting in the Brewers lineup with Christian Yelich (plus Miller Park is a launching pad) batting .246/.380/.468 with 28 homers. He set career highs in games played, plate appearances, home runs, runs batted in, and walk percentage.
All that added up to a 5.2 WAR.
And now he goes to a park that is even more of a launchpad in Guaranteed Rate Field. And while the White Sox don’t have a Christian Yelich type player (that we know of, yet) they do have a ton of talent throughout the lineup to protect Grandal and for him to drive in.
As long as Grandal continues to get on base at a steady clip, and hit the ball on the screws (45.4% hard-hit rate) he’s going to continue to be at or near the top of catching lists.
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He also gets the benefit of being able to spend some time in the DH spot which should keep him fresher longer. The White Sox were wise to spend $73 million on him.