MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

In today’s MLB projections, we’ll take a look at 10 players whose chances to win a batting title are stronger than people think.

Who’s the next Tim Anderson? Who’s the next player to come out of relative obscurity to win a batting championship?

When we consider that question, let’s first understand who we’re not talking about. We’re not talking about the usual suspects here. Anderson and National League batting champion Christian Yelich are not under consideration as potential batting champions…because they are the defending batting champions.

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Neither are the small cadre of very obvious contenders, among them Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Jose Altuve, Charlie Blackmon, and D J LeMahieu. Could they win a batting title? Obviously yes…and in most cases they already have.

What kinds of traits identify a potential batting champion? While there’s no perfect shopping list, several characteristics are worth looking for. Obviously a solid batting history is a good indicator. But so is youth: batting champions generally identify themselves within their first three or four full seasons.

In terms of skill sets, several stand out. A potential batting champion ought to consistently put the ball in play, so a low strikeout rate is advantageous. For that same reason, plate discipline is a plus …although that’s a characteristic a few recent batting champions pointedly did not deliver. Anderson, the reigning American League batting champ, had a nearly 44 percent chase rate last season.

We want to see hitters who don’t have significant weaknesses, such as the inability to hit a curve or changeup.

Foot speed can be important because it enables a fast runner to beat out hits that slower runners might be retired on. Even more important is exit velocity off the bat. The harder you hit the ball, the less time a fielder has to react and get in front of it.

Below we’ve identified 10 guys, none of them former batting champions, who possess most of the characteristics that identify a leading hitter. Will any of them beat Yelich, Bellinger, Betts, Trout or Altuve to the top of the batting race this season?

Let’s put it this way: They have a chance.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

10. David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels

David Fletcher is a 26-year-old middle infielder who hit .290 in his first full season for the Angels. He’s presently listed as a backup at second, short and third, but he did start 145 games in 2019 and shouldn’t be expected to surrender that status easily.

Fletcher’s 9.8 percent strikeout rate labels him as a sold contact hitter, a vital trait in any batting champion. He coupled that with uncommonly strong plate judgment in 2019, registering only a 22.5 percent chase rate.

Fletcher, in other words, makes a pitcher deliver Fletcher’s pitch rather than chasing the pitcher’s pitch.

He batted .319 against fastballs in 2019, a 30 percentage point jump from his 2018 debut season. He also substantially improved his average against offspeed stuff, from .222 in 2018 to .333 in 2019.

Fletcher has shown the ability to take the ball where it’s pitched. That forces opponents to play him straight up; Fletcher faced shifts only 2 percent of the time in 2019.

There are downsides. Fletcher’s 83.7 mph average exit velocity doesn’t mark him as a hard hitter, and it’s no secret to say that  the harder the ball comes off your bat, the better chance it has of missing a fielder.

Nor is Fletcher a strong candidate to pile up a lot of scratch hits. His 27.6 foot per second sprint speed is, by major league standards, only average.

Still, he’s the kind of player new Angels manager Joe Maddon should love.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

9. Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh Pirates

Kevin Newman is a 26-year-old middle infielder entering his second full season with the Pirates. On a team that is not expected to contend, he appears to have a solid grip on both the shortstop and leadoff positions, maximizing his batting opportunities.

The case for Newman as a possible 2020 batting champion begins with his rookie season .308 batting average. That’s a 100-point leap from the introductory experience he got in 2018.

The support numbers behind that performance are mixed. Newman had a 33.6 percent chase rate in 2019; swinging outside the strike zone that much isn’t exactly an endorsement. His 84.7 mph exit velocity is also ordinary at best.

He does use the whole field. Newman faced shifts just one percent of the time in 2019, and there’s no reason to expect that percentage to increase.

He’s also comfortable handling both velocity and change of velocity. Newman batted .314 against fastballs and .315 against changeups in 2019.

Finally, Newman has the foot speed to beat out his less than full-contact cuts. At 28.5 feet per second, he ranked in the 84th percentile among all major leaguers in foot speed in 2019.

Since 2020 will only be Newman’s second full season, his learning curve may not yet have maxed out. Perhaps his title may have to wait until 2021 or 2022. Still, Newman did finish eighth in batting in 2019, trailing Christian Yelich by 21 percentage points.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

7. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets

In his first full major league season, Jeff McNeil made a run at the 2019 National League title, eventually finishing fourth at .318.  If you want to look at it that way, his case was further helped by the departure of Anthony Rendon, who finished third, for the American League’s Los Angeles Angels.

That leaves only 2019 champion Yelich and runner-up Ketel Marte ahead of him.

You have to throw McNeil breaking stuff because he lights up everything else. In 2019 he batted .340 against velocity and .341 against offspeed. That’s a blimp-worthy combination.

The rest of his profile requires polishing. His 88.4 mph exit velocity was average at best, and his 27.2 mph sprint speed places him in the 59th percentile, credible but less than compelling.

You can get McNeil to bite out of the zone. He had a 38 percent chase rate in 2019, significantly above the major league average, and he coupled that with a 67 percent chase contact rate, which also classifies as just OK.

Other teams also view him as defensible by shifting. McNeil faced gimmick defenses in nearly 20 percent of his 2019 plate appearances, a serious drawback to a guy hoping to contend for a batting title.

Despite those drawbacks, you can’t write off McNeil’s 2020 candidacy. After all, despite those issues, the guy hit .318 in 2019. He’ll be 28 in 2020 so it’s reasonable to expect that his best remains ahead of him.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

6. Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox

If you can get past his very indifferent contact rate, projecting Yoan Moncada as a batting champion is easy.

For starters, he’s a 25-year-old coming off a 2019 season in which he batted .315 for the White Sox. That was the American League’s third-best showing behind D J LeMahieu and Moncada’s infield teammate, Tim Anderson.

He based that on a 47.9 percent hard-hit rate, which is solidly in the game’s top 10 percent. And few hit the ball harder than Moncada’s 92.8 mph average exit velocity, a real asset when the question is whether a ball finds its way through an infield defense.

Moncada is a switch hitter, and teams love to shift against him when he bats from the left side. They did it more than half the time in 2019, although it didn’t seem to hurt Moncada. He hit.322 against right-handers in 2019, just .299 against left-handers.

The problem Moncada still needs to address is contact consistency. In 2019 he struck out 154 times, more than one-quarter of his plate appearances. It’s hard to make use of exit velocity and all of Moncada’s other strengths if he doesn’t put the ball in play.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

5. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

It would surprise few – and nobody in Boston –if Rafael Devers made a serious run at the 2020 American League batting championship.

After all, he batted .311 as a 22-year-old in his second full season in 2019. That tied for fourth-best in the American League, and it got him some MVP votes.

Since there is no particular reason to assume that Devers will regress in 2020, he’s a contender.

There are drawbacks. Devers fanned 119 times in 2019, a 16.9 percent no-contact rate that is distressingly high for a batting titlist. He coupled that with a 37.5 percent chase rate (cause and effect?) that is also troubling.

But those things can be overcome. Tim Anderson, the 2019 batting champion, had a 21 percent no-contact rate and a 43.7 percent chase rate in 2019.

Beyond that, before lingering on Devers’ weaknesses it would be wise to consider his assets. When he did make contact, the ball came off Devers’ bat at 92.1 mph in 2019, the 14th best average exit velocity in all of MLB.

Beyond that tendency to fish, he also has few plate weaknesses. He hit .304 against fastballs in 2019, and .289 against breaking stuff. Go offspeed on him? Don’t you dare. Devers hit .381 against changeups.

His 47.5 hard-hit percentage ranked in the 91st percentile of performance. That means Devers squared up his contacts at a rate of nearly one-in-two.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

4. Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays

The 25-year-old Rays outfielder is coming off his first full major league season, one in which he showed promise of contending for a lot of honors.

Austin Meadows’ .291 batting average certainly left room for growth. But many of the peripherals are to-die-for. Begin with 90.4 mph exit velocity of his contacts, which at his young age already ranks among the game’s top one-quarter.

You can say the same for his 42.9 hard-hit percentage. That ranks barely outside the top quarter.

Meadows combines that solid contact with a discerning eye. He fished out of the zone only 24.7 percent of the time in 2019, a strong showing for a second-year player. He’s also fast out of the box, with a 28.1 feet per second sprint speed that allows him to go home-to-first in a hair above three seconds. That’s also top quarter.

Where Meadows has room to grow is in his comfort level against breaking stuff. He batted .311 against heat in 2019 and .333 against offspeed, but just .237 when a pitcher tried to hook him.

His chances of markedly improving his average in 2020, then, hinge on his ability to adapt to the breaking stuff.

Assuming, as seems likely, that Meadows holds down right field in Tampa and bats at or near the top of the order, he should get plenty of opportunities to make a run at the batting crown.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

3. Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryan Reynolds made a serious run at the batting title as a rookie in 2019. He was hitting .330 in early September before a slump dropped him to a tie for sixth at .314.

With a full season under his belt, why shouldn’t the 25-year-old Reynolds build upon the base he laid down in 2019?

The elements appear to be in place and merely in need of refinement. Begin with his chase rate. Reynolds went out of the zone just 28 percent of the time in 2019.

His 89.6 mph exit velocity was solidly above average, as was his 41.7 hard-hit percentage.

All those figures display a maturity well in advance of normal for a first-year player.

Reynolds lit up fastballs to the tune of a .335 batting average. Against breaking balls, his .265 average indicates that he has room to grow, but the other components of his game suggest he will do so.

While hardly an Olympic sprinter, he’s fast enough going home to first to rank among the game’s elite quarter. That means he’s fast enough to produce the scratch hits a batting champion needs to get now and then.

Given Pittsburgh’s rebuilding status, and Reynolds’s central role in that rebuilding, he’s guaranteed enough plate appearances to be viewed as a plausible 2020 batting title contender.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

2. Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

He’s the best hitter on the Colorado Rockies? What more reason does Trevor Story need to be viewed as a plausible batting champion?

True, four seasons into his major league career Story’s never actually contended for a title. His .294 average of 2019 was his best yet.

But the data shows this guy can flat rake. Story’s hard-hit percentage ranks in the 87th percentile and his 90.9 mph exit velocity, 83rd percentile, isn’t far behind. At 29.2 feet per second sprint speed, he’s also fast enough to turn outs into hits. For the record, that’s the 95th percentile level.

Story’s credentials are only enhanced when he’s compared to similar players through history. Through his age 26 season, those comparables include Ernie Banks, Troy Tulowitzki and 2019 AL batting champion Tim Anderson.

As with any Rockies player, it’s always wise to check the home-road splits. In 2019, Story batted .328 at Coors Field but .260 on the road. That’s a potential problem. He also has to upgrade his performance against velocity. Story hit.298 against fastballs in 2019, a solid showing but hardly award-worthy. By contrast, he hit .337 against finesse pitchers.

Story’s chance is enhanced by his plate discipline. His 28.5 percent 2019 chase rate limits the ability of opposing pitchers to get him out off of the plate.

MLB Projections: The 2020 batting champion could be…

1. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Once you get past the obvious suspects like Bellinger, Yelich, and Betts, Marte is the best bet to win his first batting title in 2020.

At age 26, he blossomed with the Diamondbacks in 2019.  Ketel Marte’s .3286 average nearly got the job done last year, finishing only about a half-point behind Yelich’s .3292. The difference amounted to one base-hit.

With a 28.3 percent chase rate, Marte doesn’t get himself out very often. He also had a 40 percent hard-hit percentage.

Perhaps most significantly, Marte’s game is on a severe uptick. His 89 mph exit velocity not only ranked among the game’s top one-third, but it was also a full mile per hour faster than in 2018. He improved his average by 69 percentage points from 2018 to 2019.

How did Marte do that? There was no one answer…in fact, the real answer may be balance. Marte batted .349 against fastballs, .310 against breaking stuff and .284 against offspeed. All three of those represented at least 30 percentage point improvements from 2018.

While a first instinct might be to expect regression from those numbers toward the mean in 2020, what’s wrong with seeing them as growth? After all, Marte is only entering his age 26 season, a time when his game ought to be peaking. It looks like a strong peak.