Houston Astros: the decline of Justin Verlander to commence

Since joining the Houston Astros, Justin Verlander seems to have aged in reverse. In 2020, however, don’t be shocked if he starts to show signs of decline.

It’s typical for aging pitchers to reinvent themselves in the latter part of their careers. It’s unheard of that the changes those pitchers make, be it in scenery or mechanics, results in the transformation of the best version of himself.

In the case of Justin Verlander, after multiple seasons in which signs of wear were becoming apparent, since joining the Houston Astros, he’s become one of the best starters on the planet.

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Here’s what I mean:

In the earlier part of his career, while with the Detroit Tigers, Verlander established himself as a juggernaut on the mound. He started 33-35 games with regularity, throwing into the high-90’s late into each of those games, while also striking out 250+ batters with ease until about the time he began to approach the age of 30.

Naturally, at that point, with eight seasons of dominance — 232 GS, 1553.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1454 SO — you start to see a decline. And precisely at the age of 30, that’s exactly what happened.

In the four seasons that followed, he started fewer games, pitched fewer innings, and struck out fewer batters. To the point where, in mid-2017, after posting a 3.82 ERA in 28 GS with the Tigers, he was traded away to the Astros.

Then, the unthinkable happened.

Entering the latter part of his age-34 season, Verlander would transform into a version of himself nobody had ever seen. Since then, he’s starting more games, tossing more innings, and striking out way more batters.

I’m talking 34 GS in each of the last two seasons, an ERA in the 2.5’s, and a combined 590 strikeouts. What’s more, he has an AL Cy Young award and a World Series title to back it all up.

Last season, however, Verlander began to show a couple troubling signs that might indicate that a decline is on the come. The first one is in the number of home runs he allowed throughout the regular season and the postseason.

During the 2019 MLB season, Justin Verlander allowed the third-most home runs (36) of any big-league pitcher. People dismissed this because he also managed to post a career-high WHIP of 0.803 and won a league-high 21 games in the process.

In the postseason, however, the home runs kept coming. In fact, during the 2019 postseason, Verlander did more to hurt the Houston Astros than to help them.

In 6 GS, he posted a 1-4 record with a 4.33 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He gave up 8 HR in 36.1 IP, ballooning his HR/9 from a bad 1.5 in the regular season to a worse 2+ HR/9 in the postseason.

Who can say what Verlander will be during the 2020 season? Nobody really knows. But in an age where a batter’s task is to elevate the ball, it’s not a good sign that Verlander gives up so many home runs.

What’s more, with such a pitiful postseason showing, perhaps it’s not so wise to trot him out there for 34 starts and 220+ IP anymore.

As he approaches the age of 40 in the coming seasons, Verlander will begin to transform again. This time, the results may not be as good as they were once he put on the Astros uniform.

I predict that we start to see that shift in 2020.