MLB Projections: Top 10 pitchers for the 2020 season

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Today, ‘Call to the Pen’ is going to examine the top 10 pitchers in baseball using the “Steamer” MLB projections system.

In today’s MLB projections, we’re going to take a look at perhaps the most important players on the ball field on any given day, the starting pitchers. These guys take the mound every fifth day, carrying their team on their backs in hopes of obtaining a win.

In all, the players on this are under contract for a touch over $1.3 billion, which is fascinating to think about. Especially when you consider that each of them will probably take the field somewhere between 25-30 times during an entire MLB season.

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With that being said, let’s jump right into it. At number 10, the Steamer MLB projections system has the 2018 AL Cy Young award winner…

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

Combined, Blake Snell‘s 4-year career plays like that of a decent starter who can compete for an All-Star slot in any given season. On the other end, his best season (2018) compares to that of elite status.

That year, Snell lead the league in wins (21) and ERA (1.89), missing out on the pitching triple-crown just slightly. He placed 6th in the league in strikeouts with 221. Not too shabby, huh?

His follow-up season, however, paled in comparison. In fact, in 2019 Snell might have had his worst statistical MLB season yet. In fact, he pitched to a sub-500 record and posted his worst career ERA and HR9 totals.

That’s not to say that Snell’s 2018 season was a complete fluke. If anything, we can write off 2019 as an aberration when you consider that he spent two separate stints on the IL. First after fracturing his right toe and then for loose bodies in his left elbow.

If Snell can stay healthy, 2020 looks to be a promising season. Given some of the pitchers the Rays dealt this offseason, Snell figures to be a key to this teams overall success.

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MLB Projections: Top 10 pitchers for the 2020 season

9. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

In just three seasons, 53 GS, Walker Buehler has established himself as a top 10 pitcher in MLB. Some may even argue that the nine-spot is a bit of an insult to the 24-year-old righty.

He officially established himself during the 2018 postseason, earning a standing ovation from one of the greatest pitchers of all time, Sandy Koufax, during a gritty World Series outing versus the Boston Red Sox.

Sandy Koufax approves of Walker Buehler’s performance. pic.twitter.com/0aA28VsM5c
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) October 27, 2018

This season figures to be one in which Buehler officially places himself ahead of teammate Clayton Kershaw as the surefire ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers staff. The STEAMER projects Buehler to post a 14-9 record with a 3.33 ERA and 225 strikeouts.

Between us, I’d say those numbers are a touch conservative. Expect Walker to finish the season as a top 5 MLB starter.

8. Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

When Patrick Corbin signed his $140M deal with the Nats last offseason, there were plenty of doubters. Prior to the 2018 MLB season, Corbin was nothing short of average, posting a 45-47 record with a 4.12 ERA. The same, however, was said of Max Scherzer prior to signing with the same Nationals team and look what he turned out to be.

In 2019, Corbin established that his 2018 MLB season was no fluke and helped his team to obtain a World Series title against arguably the best team in baseball in the Houston Astros.

The STEAMER system projects Corbin to plateau a touch by posting a 13-10 record, 3.47 ERA, and 217 strikeouts. I’d say that’s about right.

7. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

In his second big-league season, Bieber established himself as the linchpin of the Cleveland Indians rotation. In fact, the team has placed so much faith in him that they traded away arguably their best starters in Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber, essentially giving him and Mike Clevinger the keys to the organization.

The STEAMER MLB projections system expects Bieber to continue to build upon his 2019 Cy Young-caliber season by posting a 14-9 record with a 3.57 ERA and 218 strikeouts. I expect Bieber, like Walker Buehler, will officially by proclaimed one of the preeminent starters in the league.

(Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

MLB Projections: Top 10 pitchers for the 2020 season

6. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

For most of his career, Stephen Strasburg has been looked upon as an injury-prone fire-baller whose main skillset is racking up strikeouts. In 2019, that misconception was completely thrown out the window and Stras established himself as one of the toughest pitchers in the game.

Not only did he post a Cy Young-caliber regular season, but in the postseason, he delivered one of the most memorable performances since Madison Bumgarner‘s 2014 postseason appearances. It earned Strasburg so much respect that this offseason he was awarded the 2nd richest contract for a starter in the history of the game, a deal worth $245M.

The STEAMER system projects Stras to post a 13-10 record with a 3.48 ERA and 228 strikeouts. While the Nats would certainly take that, I think he’ll officially overtake Max Scherzer as the ace of the staff.

5. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

With the announcement today that Chris Sale is expected to miss the first 2-3 weeks of the MLB season due to pneumonia, the five-spot might be tough to swallow for some. However, given how dominating Sale can be at any given time, I’d say he’s something of a sleeper. Someone people don’t expect much from, but can completely shock the world.

This is a guy who since in his debut in 2010 places 4th among all MLB starts in fWAR (44.5); a guy who places 2nd in FIP (2.90), 2nd ERA (3.06), and 4th in strikeouts (1895) among all starters with a minimum 1500 IP since 2010.

If that’s not elite, I don’t know what is.

The STEAMER system projects sale to post a 14-7 record with a 3.12 ERA and 232 strikeouts. I agree with this projection.

4. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

The Benjamin Button of Baseball, Justin Verlander, projects to maintain his standing as a top 5 starter in MLB this season. In fact, the STEAMER system expects Verlander to post a 16-8 record with a 3.37 ERA and 267 strikeouts.

As for me, I think Verlander will finally start to show signs of aging during the 2020 MLB season. Last season, Verlander allowed the 3rd most home runs (36) of any pitcher in the league, and in the postseason, he was a non-factor for the Houston Astros.

In fact, in six postseason starts in 2019, Verlander posted a 1-4 record with a 4.33 ERA. He gave up 8 HR in 35.1 IP, which is good for an atrocious 2.05 HR/9.

Of all the starters in this list, I have the least faith in the 2019 AL Cy Young award winner.

MLB Projections: Top 10 pitchers for the 2020 season

3. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

And now we come to the pièce de résistance; the big three if you will. We start off with Mad Max Scherzer, who since joining the Washington Nationals in 2015 has had one of the most magical runs for a starter in the history of the game.

In that time span, Scherzer a 79-39 (.669 W-L%) record with a 2.74 ERA and 1371 strikeouts. That especially impressive when you consider that Max has had five straight sub-3 ERA seasons; he’s also punched out 248 or more batters in each of those seasons.

2. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

After two magical seasons in Houston, Gerrit Cole established himself as arguably the best pitcher in baseball. One which resulted in the richest contract — a 9-year, $324M deal — for a pitcher in the history of the game.

Now, the STEAMER MLB projections system does expect a bit of a drop-off from where Cole was last season, but that’s to be expected for a player jumping in to one of the harshest environments in the sport. Steamer expects Cole to post a 15-8 record with a 3.17 ERA and a league-leading 280 strikeouts.

The Yankees would welcome that with open arms and thensome, especially considering all the bad news they’ve gotten this offseson.

1. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

The STEAMER system projects 2x NL Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom to be the best pitcher in baseball and, frankly, I agree. Once regarded as the third best pitcher in his own staff, deGrom has come a long way to prove all the nay sayers.

Now, he’s set up more than ever to be the best pitcher in the game and I wouldn’t be shocked if he secured himself a third straight Cy Young Award.

Steamer projects deGrom to post a 14-9 record with a 3.04 ERA and 258 strikeouts. I think those numbers are conservative and deGrom should have no problem winning more games and allowing fewer runs.

Next. MLB Relievers and their value in 2020. dark

Those are you top 10 pitchers in the game according to the Steamer system. Disagree? Leave us a comment with your reactions!

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