New York Yankees: Reassessing the Stanton-Castro trade
Giancarlo Stanton’s latest injury raises the question of whether the New York Yankees actually won that deal. Let’s evaluate that a little further.
It wouldn’t have been imaginable when the trade went down two seasons ago.
But today, with the announcement out of Yankee camp that a calf strain will sideline Giancarlo Stanton for at least the start of the regular season, it’s fair to inquire: Did the Miami Marlins actually fleece the New York Yankees in the trade that brought him to New York?
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The Yanks acquired Stanton in December of 2017 for veteran Starlin Castro and two minor leaguers: pitcher Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers
Since then Stanton has given the Yanks one solid, Stanton-like season and one injury-plagued one.
In 2018, Stanton certainly delivered as expected. He hit .266 in 158 games with 38 home runs and 100 RBIs.
Last year, however, those injuries limited Stanton to just 72 plate appearances in 18 games. His production fell to just three home runs and just 13 RBIs.
Assessing trades, especially when they occur, is one of baseball’s great and easiest parlor games. In this case, the consensus was that the Yanks took full advantage of Miami’s payroll issues to fundamentally steal Stanton at the mere cost of one expendable middle infielder.
The expectation was that Stanton, who at the time of the trade had a contract paying him $285 million through 2027, would carry the Yankees to multiple World Series titles over the length of that contract while simultaneously becoming the face of the team.
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At the time, a CBS Sports analyst labeled the trade as “without question a salary dump.” ESPN said the trade “will potentially rock baseball for the next decade.”
But in the aftermath of the latest Stanton injury, it may be fair to revisit the question of who actually will end up “winning” the trade when all is said and done.
New York Yankees: Reassessing the Stanton-Castro trade
On-the-Field Performance
The two principles, Stanton and Castro, both now have produced two seasons worth of data for their acquiring teams. Assessing that part of the trade is pretty simple.
The most commonly accepted and synoptic number for evaluating player performance in baseball is Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR.
In 2018, Stanton produced a 4.0 WAR. Compared with his Miami track record, that was a solid but not spectacular number. In his eight seasons with the Marlins, Stanton’s average WAR was 4.4. He had three seasons with a higher WAR, peaking at 7.9 in 2017, immediately before the trade, when he was named the National League’s Most Valuable Player. The New York Yankees, in other words, bought high.
During his injury-plagued 2019, Stanton’s WAR fell to 0.4, raising his Yankee WAR to date to only 4.4.
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Castro, like Stanton a late-20s veteran at the time of the trade, played steady, injury-free ball for Miami in both 2018 and 2019. His .278 and .270 batting averages lacked Stanton’s power, but they still resulted in roughly equivalent WAR totals: 3.3 in 2018 and 0.8 in 2019. That totals to 4.1 for Castro’s two seasons in Miami, fractionally worse than Stanton…but only fractionally.
Interestingly, because he spent more time on the field, Castro’s counting stats stood up well in comparison with Stanton’s. Castro hit 34 home runs and drove in 140 runs for the Marlins; Stanton had 41 homers but only 113 RBIs for the Yanks.
New York Yankees: Reassessing the Stanton-Castro trade
The Postseason
Castro, of course, never played a post-season game for the Marlins. That means the question of the post-season contribution goes to Stanton by default, right? Maybe not. The Yanks reached post-season play in both 2018 and 2019, but it’s an entirely arguable proposition whether Stanton helped them in October.
During the 2018 post-season, Stanton had 22 plate appearances. They resulted in five hits—that’s a .227 batting average –one of them a home run. But that homer was meaningless, adding a seventh run in the eighth inning of the wild card game against Oakland when New York already led 6-2.
In the four-game division series loss to Boston, Stanton batted .222, coming to the plate 11 times with runners on base but failing to drive in a run. Five of those 11 potentially productive at-bats were strikeouts, and a sixth was a double play.
Stanton did not fare much better in the 2019 post-season. Across 13 official at-bats, he managed three hits – one a home run — this time driving in two runs. Four walks helped his on-base average. But he also whiffed five times. In the American League Championship; Series loss to Houston, injuries limited him to plate appearances and one RBI, a solo home run.
For the post-season as a whole, Stanton came to the plate with 10 runners on base and stranded nine of them.
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That puts Stanton’s career post-season production in New York at a .235 average, two homers, three RBIs, a .737 OPS a dozen strikeouts, and a Win Probability Added of -0.35 games.
In other words, rather than Stanton’s presence enhancing the New York Yankees postseason hopes, he has actually been a liability.
New York Yankees: Reassessing the Stanton-Castro trade
The Cost
Money is an often-overlooked factor in evaluating trades. That’s because even a big stack of currency doesn’t play second base, and it doesn’t hit left-handed pitching.
It is, however, a tangible influence both on team profitability and on roster composition. The money you spend on one player is money you can’t spend on somebody else. In that sense, money has to produce.
Over the first two years of his deal, Stanton cost the New York Yankees $51 million. That’s more than twice the $22.7 million the Marlins paid Castro. As we’ve already noted, both teams received nearly equal production – as measured by Wins Above Replacement – while Stanton actually damaged New York’s postseason hopes.
Going forward, the financial side is even more favorable to Miami. Castro, who left Miami as a free agent at the end of the 2019 season, costs the Marlins nothing going forward. They of course also lose his production, but they’re OK with that. Castro turns 30 this year and figured to be replaced by the fast-rising Isan Diaz either this year or next.
By contrast, the Yankees remain on the hook to Stanton for $26 million this season, then the better part of $209 million more through 2027. (Miami will pay $20 million of that in 2026 and 2027. New York also has a $25 million club option for 2028, and the Marlins owe a $10 million buyout if New York declines that option. Finally, Stanton has an opt-out after 2020; if he declines, the Marlins must pay $30 million.
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The problem is that Stanton also turns 30 this season, and he is showing every sign of being an injury-plagued asset going forward. Even at his best, health has been a question. Since 2011, he’s averaged just 118 games per season, and only four times has played more than 116 games.
So it’s a fair question whether the Yankees have to assume they’re paying all that money for a part-timer.
New York Yankees: Reassessing the Stanton-Castro trade
The prospects
Finally, it’s worth noting that Castro and Stanton weren’t the 2017 deal’s only two components. Guzman and Devers were also included, and while neither has yet played a day in the major leagues for Miami, both remain in the Marlins’ system.
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Either or both could in time surpass Castro’s value and eventually be perceived as the trade’s real prize.
Guzman is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher who spent 2019 at AA Jacksonville. MLB rates him as the Marlins No. 16 prospect and No. 6 pitching prospect with a potential 2020 arrival date.
At Jacksonville last year he went 7-11 with a 3.50 ERA in 24 starts. The rap on him is typical of minor leaguers: lack of control and command. But that 94 to 95 mph fastball remains intriguing.
Devers, a shortstop, is the system’s No. 10 prospect. Only 22, he batted .322 in Class A ball in 2019, catching scouts’ attention with strike zone judgment that is described as unusual for his age. He also has bloodlines going for him; he is the cousin of Rafael Devers.
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Devers and Guzman are both in Marlins minor league camp this spring, so they’re at least radar-screen-worthy. Neither will make the opening day roster, and Devers isn’t even projected as big league-ready for a minimum of one more season. But within a few years, it’s possible that one or both reshapes even further how the Stanton-Castro trade is assessed.