Phillies: History rhymes 2020 with 1980
Similarities are coming into focus for 2020’s Phillies, and this includes management, a superstar, a missing piece, a rookie, plus the front office’s and the faithful’s expectations dashed during 2019.
Now and then:
If you anticipate success and discover weaknesses regarding the Philadelphia Phillies, you can foresee their mediocrity in the National League East but could experience pleasant surprises instead: life happens not because of you but despite you. A year late and millions short, no?
IN OTHER WORDS: “The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” – Mark Twain
While many 162s fall into a half-dozen pigeonholes or so, the rarities stand out because they evoke indelible memories. Translation: 1980! Yes, these campaigns differ from the injury-plagued 2019s, the growth-spurting 2018s, the lean rebuilding seasons, and the contention-window summers to name a few.
To illustrate, Pete Rose had signed with the Fightins in 1979, and Bryce Harper joined the red pinstripes in 2019. So, fans had their towering hopes dimmed in both campaigns by not finishing in the money: win, place or show! Like now, the locals had their doubts about ’80 also.
Uniformed management changed after each 162 and introduced a new approach to a disappointing ’79 and an injury-riddled ’19. In 1980, Dallas Green had bellowed the “no I in team” mantra (the late Kobe Bryant did point out the me in the word). This time, it’s a mixture of analytics and old-school baseball.
In 1979 and 2019, fourth place was one parallel. Plus forecasts from national publications for 1980 and 2020 mirrored the previous season. Did these writers play it safe by labeling franchises with their prior finishes, or was minimal research involved?
The ’80 Phils received September contributions from right-hander Marty Bystrom because the rotation had sustained an injury: The rookie call-up’s best cluster of career outings. Yes, the ’20 Fightins also have a minor leaguer who could play a major role in September either as a starter or a reliever.
Although one big difference now is not just winning the NLCS to be in the World Series, the current format involves the Wild Card Game and the five-game NLDS to advance to the NLCS. Yes, the MLB wants obstacles for a wild-card victor to capture the Fall Classic, but a hot team at September’s end is formidable.
Thorns revisited:
During three consecutive NL East titles, the Phillies experienced two triumphs, nine defeats, pouring rain, and a questionable call at first base. So, they inked free agent Rose to $3.24 million for four summers. And if I remember accurately, some protesting organizations howled it gave the Fightins an unfair advantage.
According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, Bill Giles influenced Rose to accept his offer because the first sacker could surpass the NL all-time hits record held by Stan Musial. And the gambler had also believed the red pinstripes were stronger than the Pittsburgh Pirates, but the Bucs won the 1979 World Series.
In ’79, Rose produced his fourth highest average: .331 behind .348 (1969), .338 (1973) and .335 (1968). But the Phils finished only six games over .500 and 14 games behind Pittsburgh. However, there was rosy excitement aplenty!
One year after, the first Phillies championship finally came to fruition, but victory over the Houston Astros for the NL pennant had been no easy task even with Rose. And since a Fall Classic triumph was the reason by both parties for the signing, his stats were secondary. He batted .282 but .300 only once after 1979.
In his first campaign here, Harper received almost 100 times Rose’s deal. Plus the right fielder provided leadership and passion especially on the bases, while he hit .260 with 35 bombs and 114 RBIs. That stated, his critics never mention what his production should be and/or a fair dollar amount and contract length should be.
When the Fightins defeated the Kansas City Royals in the 1980 World Series, no one cared about Rose’s .282 average or his income. No, they enjoyed the celebration, the trophy, the champagne and the parade. And that was the same reason managing partner John S. Middleton acquired Harper.
New management:
When picking up Rose didn’t pan out in ’79, the Phillies moved Green into the skipper’s chair. And he finished the season with a 19-11 mark. Then, the former starter with the bellowing voice steered the Cardiac Kids past the Astros, the Royals and down Broad Street. Finally!
Being five games over .500 in mid-September for the last two years, the Phils again reached the change-the-manager conclusion. In fact, Charlie Manuel spiked the offense by nearly one run per contest after replacing the hitting coach and increased run production despite Rhys Hoskins‘ struggles.
Although the red pinstripes are only entering March, Joe Girardi, a former catcher, has already received praise from J.T. Realmuto. And the All-Star receiver’s unprompted comments are a positive sign to the summer ahead.
As for new hitting coach Joe Dillon, Hoskins lauded his first efforts with Dillon to make corrections and tap the full potential of his talent. Again, a core member of the Fightins was the star with the favorable remarks.
Aaron Nola really provided an optimistic assessment of new pitching coach Bryan Price. A day or so later, Vince Velasquez was more specific: Price begins with having the moundsman detail his strengths. This, basically, establishes a starting point to improve upon.
Additionally, Nick Pivetta will probably be a reliever, but southpaw Ranger Suarez is not a rotation afterthought. Translation: Girardi wanted to specifically see his start against the Pirates.
Matching forecasts:
For the 1979 Phillies, the final numbers were 65-67 under skipper Danny Ozark, 19-11 under Green, and 84-78 total. And they were behind Pittsburgh (98-64), the Montreal Expos (95-65) and the St. Louis Cardinals (86-76). A fourth-place club?
Like the ’20 squad, the prediction for the ’80 Phils was fourth place because they “obviously” were no better than that. Yes, it is also an easy call for these red pinstripes preparing for the upcoming campaign.
To paraphrase Larry Bowa during the champagne-celebrated victory over Kansas City, they –fourth place, adios– were his rebuked words for their preseason forecast. Maybe, Andrew McCutchen can offer a similar sentiment if the red pinstripes can bottle lightning.
Approaching Opening Day at March’s end, Girardi’s new crew finished ’19 under Gabe Kapler with an 81-81 record. They were behind the Atlanta Braves (97-65), the Washington Nationals (93-69) and the New York Mets (86-76). Yes, the standings resemble 1979’s.
The Fightins were a fourth-place team in 2019, and the easy prediction is fourth again. Expert’s translation: They finished fourth, they’re a fourth-place squad, and the forecast is fourth place: Yeah, it’s so easy anybody could do it.
ON THE OTHER HAND: Undercover economist Tim Harford says forecasts are like Pringles – ‘Nobody thinks that there’s any great virtue in them but offered the fleeting pleasure of consuming them, we find it hard to resist.’
Rookies:
In September, the 1980 Phillies had advanced Bystrom due to a rotation injury, and he promptly went 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA: his career’s high point. And although he had flashes of brilliance in following seasons, the faithful who had rooted for those red pinstripes will never forget his contribution.
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Who could be the Bystrom to come from out of nowhere this September? Well, Spencer Howard is coming along slowly and will have bullets remaining after August according to general manager Matt Klentak. And since the MiLB summer ends in August, the righty could plug a hole in the starting staff or relief corps.
Another rookie contributor was Bob Walk taking the ball every fifth day and eating 151 2/3 innings with an 11-7 mark and a 4.57 ERA. Roughly, having a first-year player produce in a divisional race is the unforgettable finishing touch, and Alec Bohm is bound to make his MLB debut in 2020.
With April drawing near, Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius won’t realize 2020’s forecast because they weren’t here for 2019. Meanwhile, Scott Kingery and Zach Eflin will be concentrating on ’20 alone. But since the fourth-place prediction probably isn’t sitting well with Harper and Nola, how will they respond? Fourth place, adios!
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